Friendship Under Fire

The Iranian nuclear threat will challenge Obama and Netanyahu's sometimes-rocky relationship like never before.

BY DAVID MAKOVSKY | FEBRUARY 22, 2012

Next month, U.S. President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold a key meeting over the Iranian nuclear challenge that will test their sometimes rocky relationship. After a weekend visit by National Security Advisor Tom Donilon to Israel, the White House announced this week that Obama will host Netanyahu in Washington on March 5. This will be an opportunity for the two leaders to synchronize their positions on Iran. Whether they can reach some common ground -- now or in the near future -- could be a decisive factor in Israel's decision-making on whether to strike Iran sometime this year.

International pressure on the Islamic Republic has never been higher. In addition to the new, crippling U.S. sanctions enacted on Dec. 31 and Feb. 6, the European Union recently pledged to halt the importation of Iranian oil by July 1. Iran's economy is reeling.

For their part, Iranian leaders have struck an increasingly aggressive note. They have threatened a preemptive strike against their foes, and warned that they could close the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's traded oil flows daily. In another recent act of defiance, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced on Feb. 15 that a "new generation" of Iranian centrifuges had just been activated at the Natanz nuclear site. And this week, IAEA inspectors charged with monitoring Iran's nuclear program were denied access to a military facility, returning to Vienna after what they termed "disappointing" talks with their Iranian interlocutors.

Despite its saber-rattling, Iran is feeling the heat of international sanctions. Over the past month, the Iranian rial has been devalued by 50 percent. Iran has also indicated that it may even be willing to resume diplomacy, which it has scorned since the last round of negotiations in 2009 and 2010.

With the media rife with speculation about a possible Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities by this summer, tensions between the two countries have risen to an all-time high. Iran is blaming Israel for the recent assassinations of its nuclear scientists, and Israel is accusing Iran of masterminding the Feb. 13 terror attack against Israeli diplomats in New Delhi, as well as attempted attacks in Tbilisi and Bangkok.

It is no secret that Netanyahu and Obama have never been close, but now is the time for the two leaders to find common ground over the Iranian nuclear issue.

There has already been some progress in getting top U.S. and Israeli officials to speak about Iran in similar terms. Last week in the Knesset, Netanyahu said it is critical that the world -- not just Israel -- identify "red lines" when dealing with the Iranian nuclear program. In a CBS appearance last month, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta declared that Iran's development of a nuclear weapon, as well as closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are "red lines" for the United States.

However, the United States and Israel clearly differ in where their red lines lie. The United States has put the focus on Iran actually gaining a nuclear weapon, while Israel -- more vulnerable to Iranian missiles due to its geographic proximity -- views the threshold as the Iranian regime's acquisition of enough low-enriched uranium to build a bomb, pending a political decision to convert it to weapons-grade fuel.

The other set of differences between the United States and Israel has to do with how long they are willing to wait before judging the international sanctions of Iran to be a success or failure. On the one hand, this is the first time that the United States and the EU have imposed the type of "crippling" sanctions that Israel has long called for. But on the other, recent statements by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak signal that Israel believes its window for military action is rapidly closing. As a result, Israeli officials fear they might not have the time to wait and see whether the sanctions halt Iran's nuclear program peacefully.

MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

 

David Makovsky is the Ziegler distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and an adjunct professor of Middle East Studies at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. He is the co-author with Dennis Ross of Myths, Illusions and Peace.

UNFUNDED PUNDIT

3:39 AM ET

February 23, 2012

Water Carriers

One wonders if Makovsky can get his story straight in this piece full of half-truths while carrying water for Israel. FP readers are sophisticated enough to spot most, if not all of them. Here are a a few:

Iran is on the receiving end of increasingly aggressive threats, sanctions and covert war. Is it truly any wonder that it responds with its own threats, whether meant for internal consumption or not?

How is it an aggression by Iran to cut off it's oil sales to Britain and France in advance of their their own threats to cease buying that oil?

Makovsky says IAEA nuclear inspectors were denied access to a military facility. The IAEA sent representatives on the second round of recent visits, not inspectors.

Israel has put the U.S. on the horns of a dilemma. Israelis are not so stupid to truly believe Iran is an existential threat to anything, not even it's regional military superiority. Israel wants Americans to bear the cost in blood and treasure of a war it could not finish by itself, and striking Iran will start a war that is NOT in our interest. We've already had a long war in Iraq pushed on the American people by lies and the interests of Israel. Enough with lies and half-truths.

 

JBGODZILLA

12:39 PM ET

February 24, 2012

Israel should not put the US on the "horns of a dilemma." They

should drop 100 atomic bombs NOW and worry about "dilemmas" later! Iran is develping rockets and atomic bombs that will in five to ten years be able to hit the US as well. We've already kicked the can down the road for 15 years. How long does Israel had to wait, till the US gives it permission to live or die? Israel, go NUKE 'EM NOW, and to hell with the supposed "consequences." No more Holocaust Museums! Let the Mullahs build their own for themselves next time around, if there is one.

 

KIRBANG

8:45 AM ET

February 23, 2012

Israel

The only way Obama can be seen as pro Israel is to capitulate entirely to all and every wish and demand. His silence on settlement expansion, as only one example, to the US detriment, is a major detraction for me in his relationship with Israel. Unlike others I find his willingness to allow Israel virtually full and free reign the damning actions.

 

LOZER123

10:46 PM ET

March 1, 2012

There is no obvious plan for

There is no obvious plan for nuclear bomb nor Iranians would dare to cause a war in the region. The country is already isolated, their only insurance, the oil, would be all gone if they start a war. No other country would be on their side, not even their long term insurance, Russia & China. Having said that, we do not have money to fight another war either. Rather than trying to fix the economy, I cannot believe that the politicians are competing to see who can scare people into voting them to bomb Iran. This is the insurance we need for us? This is the insurance we need for our families? no.

 

TARQUINIS

10:16 AM ET

February 23, 2012

Iran war is Israeli self-destruction

Iran with no nuclear weapons is zero military threat against nuclear superpower Israel. Israel is in possession of hundreds of nuclear warheads. More importantly, it possesses the most advanced delivery systems in the world including nuclear powered ballistic missile firing submarines. A nation with zero nuclear weapons does not attack another with hundreds. Even if (a hypothetical) Iran did some day acquire a nuclear weapon (to secure itself from vicarious nuclear attack) it could never use it against Israel because of the intertwined nature of the Palestinian and Israeli populations. Al-Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest site in world Islam is in Jerusalem and they would never risk its destruction.

But lets just ignore all of that.

I ask Israel supporters to seriously consider the CONSEQUENCES of an attack. A war initiated by Israel would spread to our interests in about half an hour. Iran would certainly hit back to the best their abilities. Prices for petroleum would certainly skyrocket to who knows what level, collapsing our fragile economy like a house of cards. Same for the whole world's economy for the same reasons. Mass chaos from Lebanon to Pakistan. Things quickly spiral out of control. Afghanistan explodes. Al-Qaeda claps its hands in glee in Yemen and Somalia. China and Russia get quite hostile. Radioactive clouds drift eastward over India.

And of course in this event, Iran would conclude that it must quickly obtain a nuclear WMD capability. Achieving exactly what you claim you want to avoid. Great! An Israeli attack slams the whole world into what? Choose your own apocalyptic metaphors. Just who else would the world blame?

 

DILBERT

11:12 AM ET

February 23, 2012

Tarq -

wrote ...."including nuclear powered ballistic missile firing"

1) Israeli subs are not nuclear powered
2) Pretty sure the missiles in question are not ballistic (i.e. probably cruise type)

Begs to wonder if this misinformed poster has any of his other "facts" right.

The simple fact is that there will eventually be a war with Iran. If Israel doesn't initiate it, then Iran will. From Iran's perspective, this is divine destiny (i.e. non-negotiable). The only question is if this will be BEFORE or AFTER Iran has deliverable weapons of mass destruction.

 

FREETHINKER12

10:42 AM ET

February 24, 2012

No one sees Iran initiating a

No one sees Iran initiating a war with isreal. It isnt going to happen. If iran really wanted to hurt isreal they would just arm hezbollah and kick back with a cigar. That would cause harm to isreal without isreal or America being able to retaliate against Iran. Iran is probably going nuclear tho, theyd be retarded not to

 

JBGODZILLA

1:32 PM ET

February 24, 2012

I wish the US would give ISrael some Ohio class nuclear submarin

instead of useless aircraft that can't even reach Iran, much less succeed. Now if Israel had one or two of those Ohio class nuclear subs with its MIRV'ed SLBM nuclear deterrent off the PErsian Gulf that might constitute a genuine deterrent. A few puny diesel subs with cruise missiles that can be easily shot down is hardly a deterrent to big, powerful, and crazy country run by well dug-in Islamofascist maniacs!

 

DONALDFRANCOEUR

10:28 AM ET

February 23, 2012

Stop the madness

Iran has become nuclear, let's face it. And frankly, given that Iran is surrounded by hateful Sunnis, including a nuclear Pakistan, and a nuclear Israel, it's understandable. Sanctions and military aggression will not change Iran's course. And anyone talking about war against Iran should have his head examined, to paraphrase Robert Gates.

 

JBGODZILLA

12:32 PM ET

February 24, 2012

Iran is violationg a UN TREATY called the NPT!

Iran has NO right to nuclear weapons, because it signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Pakistan and India have them because they did not sign and developed their nuclear capabilities before the treaty came into existence, just like the US, UK, USSR, China, France and possibly ISrael. But Iran was able to purchase nuclear reactors because it did sign the treaty, and by doing so gave away its right to develop bombs. That's the law. International law!

 

MARTY24

11:23 AM ET

February 23, 2012

Obama, Netanyahu and Iran

That we are now dependent on Obama and Netanyahu finding some way to trust one another is about all the proof anyone needs that Obama's conduct of relations with Israel have been a disaster and with Iran a fiasco. It's about time even the Left acknowledge that Obama has messed up.

This failure offers Obama an opportunity to address his problem with Israel by acknowledging that he has been wrong about his understanding of the problems of the Middle East. The real problem between Israel and the Arabs isn't settlements, it's the Muslim inability to accord any rights to Israeli Jews (or, as we are seeing in Egypt, Iraq, Iran, etc., any non-Muslims). Once one understands that, the next step is to figure out how to address this central issue.

This is where we get to Iran and its aspiration to use nuclear weapons to bring about the Islamic apocalypse. Iran isn't seeking nukes to deter Israel or Pakistan. Israel has had these weapons long enough that if it was inclined to use them for aggression, it would have done so already. Pakistan's nukes were developed to deter India, not to threaten Iran. Thus, the case made for Iran's entitlement to have nukes, made by some posters, falls apart completely.

Meanwhile, the Iranians have been fairly explicit about their goal: to create the havoc their religion tells them will usher in the return of the Mahdi. That this idea sounds nuts to Westerners doesn't mean the Iranian leadership doesn't mean it when it says this is their objective.

If you are Israeli, you must take these Iranian threats seriously; many of the people charged with defending Israel are the children of Holocaust survivors, so the prospect of a genocide is very real. The issue is how to prevent Iran from acquiring the means to carry out a genocide.

There are really only two possibilities: either get the West to handle the problem or do it yourself. If Israelis can't trust the West, that leaves only the do-it-yourself option. Obama's handling of Middle Easterrn issues have gone very far in demonstrating that Israel cannot trust the US under Obama, so if Obama cannot establish trust, Israel will attack Iran, regardless of the consequences. Obama's chickens have finally come home to roost.

 

MSAM

2:47 PM ET

February 23, 2012

Deranged "analysis"

To suggest that Iranians or even their leaders are a messianic cult bent on committing national suicide is ignorant to say the least.

Every responsible national security figure in the US, and even Israel has said that the mullahs are in fact "rational" driven by a "cost-benefit" analysis, more concerned about their own survival in power than bringing about the apocalypse.

When you suggest bombing Iran based own your "belief", irrespective of facts, you are calling for the deaths of thousands of Iranians, (and Israelis in the retaliations to follow). That is in itself hateful and deserving of condemnation.

 

FREETHINKER12

10:48 AM ET

February 24, 2012

"The real problem between

"The real problem between Israel and the Arabs isn't settlements"

yes it is. you guys steal palestinian land daily since '48. Isreal wasnt there in 1945

"That we are now dependent on Obama and Netanyahu finding some way to trust one another is about all the proof anyone needs that Obama's conduct of relations with Israel have been a disaster "

Why blame obama why not netanyahu the liar, the same guy merkel and sarkozy HATE. Everyone hates that lying swine. I guess obama was supposed to grovel to him like bush did with the previous isreali leaders. Obama wasnt elected to have perfect relations with isreal, many of us americans dont really care about isreal anymore than we care about portugal.

"his is where we get to Iran and its aspiration to use nuclear weapons to bring about the Islamic apocalypse"

Any proof of this? Your just making stuff up now. Thats pathetically desperate of u

"Israel has had these weapons long enough that if it was inclined to use them for aggression, it would have done so already"
It almost used them in '73 when egypt was deep in their territory. Please explain the "Sampson Option" which states that isreal will nuke the entire middle east if it is defeated in a war

 

JBGODZILLA

12:35 PM ET

February 24, 2012

The League of Nations in 1922 gave Palestine to the Jews, and

Jews have the right to live anywhere west of the JOrdan river! 1.5 million ARabs live in Israel, so why can't 1 million Jews live in Judah and Samaria? WHy can't Jews live in Gaza? Jews have every right to live anywhere west of the Jordan river, period! THey don't need the permission from so-called "Palestinians." That is, Arabs who occupied Jewish land and think they have sovereignty over it. WHen was there ever a Palestinian state in all of history? Short answer: Never. Long answer: Never.

 

JBGODZILLA

1:47 PM ET

February 24, 2012

Did anyone in the US take Hitler seriously until he was pounding

London? Why do people think that the Supreme Fuehrer dug into his bunkers deep under Qom cares about "his people" or any people for that matter, least of all Jews and Christians, or even Sunni Muslims?? Why do Americans always seek to find the BEST in the horrible dictators and people, until it is too late? The US was lucky in WWII, that it had those wide oceans to protect it for a while. Didn't stop the Japanese from sinking most of the Pacificf fleet one Sunday morning. When Iran gets its ICBMs and nukes capable of reaching the US, Americans won't feel so smug and secure. Just kick the can down the road another 5 years and see!

 

FREETHINKER12

1:47 PM ET

February 24, 2012

denying a palestine existed

denying a palestine existed is worse than denying the holocaust, you bigots

 

FREETHINKER12

1:49 PM ET

February 24, 2012

iran is getting nuclear armed

iran is getting nuclear armed icbm? really? oh wow im so scared now that i might actually support bombing Iran *sarcasm*

iran is isreals problem not ours. China, pakistan, and russia wouldnt in their wildest dreams launch a cruise missile at us let alone a nuke so we arent too much worried about Iran.

Fight your own wars

 

PUPIL

12:30 PM ET

February 23, 2012

Rationallly irrational

Obama double speak on Iran (saying US will not allow the bomb, but making publicly sure that no real actions are taken by Israel, so Iran will keep enriching U235 at high rate) begs to question not rationality of the mullahs, but the rationality of Obama. Hamaney is rationally pursuing absolutely rational goal of Israel destruction. Same way as Hitler rationally and efficiently organized the industry of mass killing.

After Iran soon moves most of the production underground US will not be able to destroy the installations without use of thermonuclear weapons, so Obama should be "asked" (as he himself usually says) about this imminent physical deadline and unceremoniously pushed to answer.

Makovsky asks this question, but this message has to be delivered to Obama by much stronger force. Perhaps, his key Democrats need to be prodded. This is not a question whether FP readership (or writership like Steve Walt) is aggressively anti-Jewish and racist, but whether US government is deliberately destabilizes entire Middle East because of quite rational assumption that Obama arrogantly follows his instincts and ideology, rather than reality of centrifuges spinning under the mountains.

 

FOPASAFOLé

12:06 PM ET

February 24, 2012

There is a reason why Obama won't allow a strike by Israel

Contrary to GW, Obama listen to what the intelligence agencies have to say.

Read what they say here:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-intel-20120224,0,5827032.story

and tell us why a US President would engage in yet another war, on behalf of a foreign country, when there is NO evidence that Iran is even seeking to build an atomic weapon, contrary to the confabulations of the US MSM and certain lobbies that shall remain anonymous...for now.

 

JAYDEE001

5:41 PM ET

February 23, 2012

Absolute madness!

It should be stated that unless and until Iran is proven to be actually building nuclear weapons, its nuclear program may not be illegal in any sense and it would be living within the spirit of the NPT, to which that country is a signator. All the articles I have read continually refer to the Iranian nuclear program as if it is a weapons program. Let's be clear that iran has a right to nuclear enrichment as long as it is doing so for peaceful purposes. The obvious issue is that enrichment can be used to develop fuels for peaceful nuclear power projects, or for the manufacture of weapons. If we go to war again, or are pulled into it by the actions of another country, and it cannot be clearly proven that Iran has begun building weapons, we will repeat our foolish Iraq experience. The results will be many times more horrific for us and for the world.

It is ironic that the nuclear program of iran was launched in the 1950s with the help of ....... the United States. It was initiated as part of the "Atoms for Peace" program. The US and European governments all supported Iran's program until the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Once again, the dog we took in has bit us in the arse!

 

JBGODZILLA

12:51 PM ET

February 24, 2012

Define "proof" for us. The IAEA does not need "proof."

Under the terms of the NPT, a signatory to the treaty MUST be 100% transparent and allow inspectors in anytime to go anywhere they want at anytime, day or night, to check anyplace they want to for undisclosed nuclear activities of any kind. The job IAEA is to tell the UN Security Council if the suspected country is clean or there are still doubts. Iran is guilty until it proves itself innocent,and to that, it must allow UN inspectors to go anywhere at anytime they please. That's what got Saddam into trouble, that he kept making difficulties for inspectors, and that is what led to the suspicions that led to war. A signatory to the treaty must be above suspicion.

 

JBGODZILLA

12:58 PM ET

February 24, 2012

The US "Atoms for Peace" program was an initiative

undertaken at the behest of liberals in Congress, to essentially give or sell friendly countries small nuclear reactors for experimental purposes, in hopes that we could not only sell them stuff but also to keep tabs on them as well. We thought it might work to keep them from establishing their own nuclear programs that we would know nothing about. In 1969 it was clear that this was not working as well as hoped, and so the US urged to UN to draft a "Non-Proliferation Treaty" wherein signatories could legally buy nuclear knowledge, materiel, reactors, etc., provided they swore not to build bombs and be 100% transparent in all their nuclear dealings. But then, AQ Khan and similar underground blackmarket sellers of nuclear wares began to illegally equip Khaddafi, Saddam, and North Korea with the bomb-related knowledge and wares they were not legally allowed to acquire under the treaty.

So that is where we stand. Either the UN's NPT is upheld by the UN and the world powers, or we have an end to the NPT and a free-for-all where no one pays attention to the treaty anymore, and that will definitely lead to nuclear wars without doubt as the number of nuclear states swells with no controls whatsoever.

 

FREETHINKER12

1:50 PM ET

February 24, 2012

guilty until proven innocent?

guilty until proven innocent? How american!!!

Take your fascist nonsense nazi drivel back to tel aviv

 

CENSORSHIP

6:11 PM ET

February 23, 2012

A funny thing here on foreign policy is happening

It seems that certain people are being censored, their comments being removed, and yet others, like charles firth, and tarquinis are free to keep posting hate speech.

Is there SELECTIVE CENSORSHIP being practiced at FP and if so, why?

could it be the backround of the owners of this site and the agenda they are pushing? many come from npr, some are into the climate change energy scam of the very far left... seems to me you either allow everyone's comments OR no ones comments.

What gives? I thought censorship was the ultimate nono in both america and in the press...? am I wrong?

 

FOPASAFOLé

12:07 PM ET

February 24, 2012

You got a problem with the science

supporting climate change?

 

JBGODZILLA

12:29 PM ET

February 24, 2012

Israel should just drop 100 nukes on Iran...

And end this nonsense already! What is Israel waiting for, for Iran to drop a few on ISrael first? Israel: FIre AND FORGET! The US is not coming to you aid. The US only comes to help when Muslims are in trouble, like in Kuwait, Kosovo, Libya, etc.

 

JAMESHOGAN

2:36 PM ET

February 24, 2012

Bibi goes to Washington version 2012

At least, with David Makovsky's comments, we have insight into the AIPAC line for their upcoming joint meeting of the US Congress, Senate and Administration.
Despite it being an election year, I hope that Mr. Obama will listen to his military and resist AIPAC and Bibi's blandishments to participate in a War against Iran.

 

SIN NOMBRE

8:00 AM ET

February 25, 2012

Censorship

The commentator "CENSORSHIP" above claims to see something funny going on in these FP comment sections along the lines of censorship, and I have to agree, although I don't know that I see any partisan directionality to it as he does.

I posted an early comment here asking what Mr. Makovsky's citizenship status was (given that he was a former editor of the Jerusalem Post) and I see that has somehow disappeared, and then suddenly I had trouble logging in to the comment section of FP at all.

Plus I believe I've seen some previous posts of others disappear as well, although I don't recall their political orientation or who wrote them.

In any event my own experience is the opposite of what CENSORSHIP seems to see which is someone trying to muzzle pro-Israel comments, but, regardless, it does seem that something might be going on that I doubt FP formally endorses.

Print 'em all, FP; print 'em all.