
8. Drones
are becoming a lethal weapon of choice, but nobody's in charge.
Over the
past decade, there have been some 300 drone strikes outside the battlefields of
Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. Of these attacks, 95 percent occurred in
Pakistan, with the rest in Yemen and Somalia; cumulatively, they have killed
more than 2,000 suspected militants and an unknown number of civilians.
Although U.S. President Barack Obama recently acknowledged that "a lot of these
strikes" have been in Pakistan's tribal areas, who can be targeted and under
what authority can only be guessed from a few speeches and statements by
anonymous U.S. officials. There are believed to be multiple drone-target "kill
lists" among government agencies. The 2011 book Top Secret America revealed "three separate 'kill lists' of individuals" kept by the National Security Council, the CIA, and the military's Joint Special
Operations Command. In Yemen, the Pentagon is the lead executive authority for
some drone strikes (which are reported to the congressional armed services
committees), while the CIA is in
charge for others (reported to the intelligence committees). As for the Obama
administration's claimed power to assassinate U.S. citizens, such as
Yemeni-American cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, the Justice Department refuses to
declassify the memo that provided the legal authority to kill him with a drone.
So, although 85 percent of non-battlefield drone strikes have occurred under
Obama, we have little understanding of their use.
9. Other
countries are catching up to the United States.
As with
most military programs, the United States is far and away the leader in
developing drone technology, and the country is projected to account for 77
percent of drone R&D and 69 percent of procurement in the coming decade.
Nevertheless, estimates of how many other countries have at least some drone
capability now range from 44 to 70, for an estimated 680 drone programs around
the world, up greatly from 195 in 2005. China is escalating its drone program,
with at least 25 types of systems in development. Iran has also touted its
program, including the armed "Ambassador of Death" drone, which President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad unveiled by declaring: "Its main message is peace and
friendship."
10. The drone
future is already here.
The
Pentagon now boasts a fleet of approximately 7,500 drones, up from just 50 a
decade ago. According to a congressional report, "manned aircraft have gone
from 95% of all [Defense Department] aircraft in 2005 to 69% today." Over the
next decade, the Pentagon expects the number of "multirole" drones -- ones that
can both spy and strike -- to nearly quadruple, to 536. In 2011, the Teal Group
consulting firm estimated that worldwide spending on unmanned aerial vehicles
will nearly double over the next decade from $5.9 billion to $11.3 billion
annually. In the future, drones are projected to: hover just behind infantry
soldiers to watch their backs; carry airborne lasers to intercept ballistic
missiles; perform aerial refueling; and conduct long-range strategic bombing
missions. Given that drones will become cheaper, smaller, faster, stealthier,
more lethal, and more autonomous, it is harder to imagine what they won't do
than what they will. Whatever limits drones face will be imposed by us
humans -- not technology.


SUBJECTS:















(28)
HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE