The Obama Doctrine

How the president's drone war is backfiring.

BY DAVID ROHDE | MARCH/APRIL 2012

The decision reflected both Obama's belief in the need to move aggressively in Pakistan and the influence of the CIA in the new administration. To a far greater extent than the Bush White House, Obama and his top aides relied on the CIA for its analysis of Pakistan, according to current and former senior administration officials. As a result, preserving the agency's ability to carry out counterterrorism, or "CT," operations in Pakistan became of paramount importance.

"The most important thing when it came to Pakistan was to be able to carry out drone strikes and nothing else," said a former official who spoke on condition of anonymity. "The so-called strategic focus of the bilateral relationship was there solely to serve the CT approach."

Initially, the CIA was right. Increased drone strikes in the tribal areas eliminated senior al Qaeda operatives in 2009. Then, in July 2010, Pakistanis working for the CIA pulled up behind a white Suzuki navigating the bustling streets of Peshawar. The car's driver was later tracked to a large compound in the city of Abbottabad. On May 2, 2011, U.S. commandos killed Osama bin Laden there.

The U.S. intelligence presence, though, extended far beyond the hunt for bin Laden, according to former administration officials. At one point, the CIA tried to deploy hundreds of operatives across Pakistan but backed off after suspicious Pakistani officials declined to issue them visas. At the same time, the agency aggressively used the freer hand Obama had given it to launch more drone strikes than ever before.

Established by the Bush administration and Musharraf in 2004, the covert CIA drone program initially carried out only "personality" strikes against a preapproved list of senior al Qaeda members. Pakistani officials were notified before many, but not all, attacks. Between 2004 and 2007, nine such attacks were carried out in Pakistan, according to the New America Foundation.

In 2008, the Bush administration authorized less-restrictive "signature" strikes in the tribal areas. Instead of basing attacks on intelligence regarding a specific person, CIA drone operators could carry out strikes based on the behavior of people on the ground. Operators could launch a drone strike if they saw a group, for example, crossing back and forth over the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. In 2008, the Bush administration carried out 33 strikes.

Under Obama, the drone campaign has escalated rapidly. The number of strikes nearly doubled to 53 in 2009 and then doubled again to 118 in 2010. Former administration officials said the looser rules resulted in the killing of more civilians. Current administration officials insisted that Obama, in fact, tightened the rules on the use of drone strikes after taking office. They said strikes rose under Obama because improved technology and intelligence gathering created more opportunities for attacks than existed under Bush.

But as Pakistani public anger over the spiraling strikes grew, other diplomats expressed concern as well. The U.S. ambassador in Pakistan at the time, Anne Patterson, opposed several attacks, but the CIA ignored her objections. When Cameron Munter replaced Patterson in October 2010, he objected even more vigorously. On at least two occasions, CIA Director Leon Panetta dismissed Munter's protests and launched strikes, the Wall Street Journal later reported. One strike occurred only hours after Sen. John Kerry, head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, had completed a visit to Islamabad.

A March 2011 strike brought the debate to the White House. A day after Pakistani officials agreed to release CIA contractor Raymond Davis, the agency -- again over Munter's objections -- carried out a signature drone strike that the Pakistanis say killed four Taliban fighters and 38 civilians. Already angry about the Davis case, Pakistan's Army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, issued an unusual public statement, saying a group of tribal elders had been "carelessly and callously targeted with complete disregard to human life." U.S. intelligence officials dismissed the Pakistani complaints and insisted 20 militants had perished. "There's every indication that this was a group of terrorists, not a charity car wash in the Pakistani hinterlands," one official told the Associated Press.

Ethan Miller/Getty Images; Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images

 

David Rohde, a two-time Pulitzer Prize winner and former reporter for the New York Times, is a foreign affairs columnist for Reuters and the Atlantic.

ALANCHRISTOPHER

3:00 PM ET

February 27, 2012

Drone Wars

The temptation for the US government to assassinate is strong. Fortunately, it releases Americans from any moral or legal requirements to inform the Obama regime of any plans to assassinate the president, vice president, cabinet members, national security council members, senators, or congressmen. Simply avoid the location of the proposed assassination and continue with life. Leaders can be replaced, and the removal of the regime's murderers will not inconvenience the US because a chain of command exists for the replacement of the murdering leaders who die at the hands of other killers. In short, let the killers kill each other.

The other advantage is that it continues to destroy US computers, digital cameras, cell phones, and fertilizer, the basic components of smart munitions. It burns billions of gallons of US aviation fuel. It wastes billions of US man hours, 168 people per Predator and 180 people per Reaper with 7,500 drones, in unproductive work each year. China makes the products and sells them for profit. China uses the fuel to move passengers and cargo for profit. Russia sells the fuel for profit. China and Russia use their man hours to produce profit. While the US destroys its economy, the Communist Party of the People's Republic of China and the KGB in Russia help their national economies to grow and thrive so their countries can become the leaders of the world.

 

MW140496

11:08 PM ET

February 28, 2012

On profit...

Correct: the Russians use their man hours to produce profit...

More correct: The Chinese use their man-hours to produce GROWTH. They spend their profit immediately on anything and everything which might produce growth. Thus, they do nothing for profit and everything for GDP.

 

TTAERUM

8:03 PM ET

February 27, 2012

happy warrior...

It's difficult to draw any conclusion other than the fact our President enjoys the hunt. There certainly haven't been any signs of regret, no mia copa for those unfortunates whose only crime was to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, no suggestions about when it will end or even if it ought to end. Like Air Force One, it's something that comes with the job. It has less emotional attachment for the White House than a birdie in a golf game. It's no small wonder that the natives are restless.

 

MARTINJOHN01

11:57 AM ET

March 31, 2012

Perfect Orders

This was precisely why President Obama decided to hit with a bullet rather than a missile: you can’t be sure you’ve killed the most wanted man in the world when all you’ve got to show for it is a giant crater in the ground. addiction treatment center

 

JOHN KANTOR

2:13 PM ET

February 29, 2012

The real enemies....

The only problem with Obama's "doctrine" is that he's doing it instead of using conventional means rather than as an adjunct to them.

He's doing it because it leads to less bad publicity - but just like all pathetic Liberals, you're only problem with it is that it isn't quiet enough. There's always somebody left around when a drone strikes.

But your crocodile tears don't mean you care about the Afghans, the Pakistanis, or your neighbor next door. You didn't care about them before 9/11 and you won't care about them when every foreign soldier is gone. Just like you didn't care about the South Vietnamese, or the Cambodians, or the Bosnians, or anyone else. If you did you'd be out fighting - not babbling pathetic isolationist propaganda.

Terrorists and despots aren't the enemy. They are just opportunists. They only have power because of parasites like you. And one day, someone is going to realize that the real enemies aren't hiding in caves. They're right here where they are a lot easy to get to.

 

REALREALIST

4:57 PM ET

February 29, 2012

His doctrine? you mean muslim appeasement?

oh yes, sacrifice your allies to appease your enemies...

thats one helluva doctrine!

 

LODYANN

7:31 PM ET

March 27, 2012

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