Putin the Peacemaker?

Russia's once and future president, Vladimir Putin, likes to talk tough. But what he really wants is to be America's partner -- and Washington isn't listening.

BY DMITRI TRENIN | FEBRUARY 28, 2012

Never one to mince words, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has laid down his views on national security policy. Like all his other articles in the Russian press of late -- articles that have to substitute for the absent presidential debates -- his recent piece in the newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta (and excerpted on Foreign Policy.com) was, above all, a campaign statement. Like any leader facing an election (and one need only to look to the U.S. Republican presidential nominees for confirmation), he sought to portray himself as a staunch patriot ready to defend his country's national interest. Appearing on the eve of Defender of the Fatherland Day, his long piece also made a pitch for the votes of military members and workers in the defense industry. "There is always a temptation to solve one's problems at somebody else's expense," Putin wrote. But, he continued, "We should not tempt anyone by our weakness." Yet, Putin's article is more than electoral rhetoric; it is a plan that is already being implemented. The problem with it is that it rests on the pessimistic conclusion that, in the 21st century, Russia's national security will need to be protected, above all, from the United States.

There is no question that, in today's Russia, official anti-Americanism serves a useful domestic purpose. It seeks to discredit not just a few Russian liberals but the much more numerous anti-government protesters by portraying them as America's fifth column. There is no doubt either that the view of the United States as Russia's adversary reflects the legacy of the Cold War and, perhaps even more than that, the disappointment that followed the end of the 40-year confrontation, when Russia, having withdrawn its forces from a score of countries and slashed its military equipment purchases by 68 times in just one year (1992), turned itself into an international supplicant, living from one International Monetary Fund tranche to another. But there is also the fact that, at the beginning of each post-Soviet Russian presidency, the Kremlin leader reached out to his counterpart at the White House in an effort to strike an alliance with the United States, only to be brushed off.

Boris Yeltsin, in 1992, sought a formal alliance with Washington, only to be told, by George H.W. Bush, that with the Cold War over there was no need for new alliances anymore. When, however, the existing alliance, NATO, started to expand eastward, under Bill Clinton, Russia was only told not to worry. Rhetorically, the door was left open for Russia, but in reality Moscow's accession was never seriously considered. No wonder that Yeltsin's parting message to Clinton, in late 1999, was "never to forget, not for a minute," that Russia was still a nuclear superpower.

It is little mentioned these days that when Putin became president in 2000, he was determined to do what had eluded Yeltsin. Privately but very directly, he aspired to Russia's membership in NATO -- not to destroy it from the inside, as many readily suspected, but to cement the relationship with the United States, whose primacy Putin then was prepared to implicitly recognize. In the crucial first stage of the Afghanistan operation, Russia de facto became an ally of the United States. In an effort to build a strong security relationship with Washington, Putin chose not to respond to George W. Bush's unilateral withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty that Moscow had always regarded as a bedrock of strategic stability, and he tolerated a U.S. military presence in the former Soviet Central Asia and Georgia. From mid-2002, however, the Bush White House became focused on Iraq, and Russia was left lying by the wayside. Putin gave vent to his pent-up frustration five years later in his famous Munich speech in which he denounced the United States, whose power refused to "recognize any borders in this world."

Sean Gallup/Getty Images

 

Dmitri Trenin is director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

JEREMYBL

2:47 AM ET

February 29, 2012

Opportunity

I think we have much in common with the Russian people. As an American I would love to bury the hatchet once and for all.

 

URSHULGI

6:00 AM ET

February 29, 2012

As an American who has spent

As an American who has spent the last 15 months living in Moscow, I have to agree. Russia shares a lot more cultural similarities with America than many of the countries we are allied with do. The Russian people are quite amazing, and the continued hostility is really self-defeating.

 

MUXA

7:23 AM ET

February 29, 2012

good

HEILIGENDAMM: With the abruptness and skill of a real-life judo black belt, Russia's President Vladimir Putin floored foes at the Group of Eight summit and single-handedly defused mounting East-West tensions.

Putin, attending his last Group of Eight summit before leaving office next year, arrived in Heiligendamm, Germany, the odd man out.

In a pre-summit interview the Kremlin leader issued a chilling threat to resume Cold War nuclear missile targeting if Washington insisted on building an anti-missile system in central Europe.

But Putin turned peacemaker and stole the G8 show with a stunning proposal Thursday to President George W. Bush on hosting the system at a Russian base.

"Putin's statement after meeting Bush was a sensation," the Russian business daily Vedomosti said on Friday.

Rather than shake his fist at G8 critics, Putin "on the contrary proposed to Bush a solution that could really interest Washington and ease the red-hot atmosphere," the Vremya Novostei daily wrote.

The drama wrong-footed Bush and other Western leaders who had signalled a tough stance against what many in the West see as Putin's unacceptable clampdown on democracy and increasingly aggressive foreign policy.

Analysts say that behind Putin's surprise announcement lie carefully thought-out tactics -- echoing techniques in the president's much loved sport of judo -- but not always much substance.

"He's always playing a game. The game is about raising tension so that then he can take an unexpected step to reverse this," Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, said.

"This game of nerves strengthens his hand in negotiations."

Yevgeny Volk at the US-based Heritage Foundation said that "Putin managed to steer the summit away from questions like human rights."

"He invented a huge scandal over the American plan for missile defences, then ntervened dramatically, so that he could appear to solve the problem. Everyone's clapping and cheering. I think it's rather crude," Volk said.

Behind the smiles in Germany real disagreements linger, particularly over democratic rights in Russia ahead of the 2008 presidential election when Putin is to stand aside.

Critics say the process will be heavily stage-managed to ensure a member of Putin's inner circle takes over, while true opponents are refused a chance to compete.

There is also concern in the European Union and the United States over the steady strengthening of the state's hand in the booming energy-based Russian economy.

Just before the G8, Bush accused Putin of "derailing" democracy, while British Prime Minister Tony Blair warned that Russia risked seeing an exit of investors if it refused to accept "shared values."

Lukyanov said such worries will survive Putin's star performance at the G8 summit.

"Did he manage to neutralise his critics? Overall, no, of course, because nothing has changed. The lack of trust in Russia regarding democracy and its policies remains," Lukyanov said.

According to Moscow-based analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, Putin's surprise announcement on the missile defences was "more like a Cold War period proposal, when everyone exchanged initiatives that never led to anything."

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HASEED UMER

5:01 PM ET

February 29, 2012

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Banks, the South Korean military, schools, and businesses have all reportedly been victims or targets of North Korean cyber-attacks. With the difficulty of preventing the attacks, and of definitively tracing their origin, the likelihood is high that they will both continue and grow more effective as their instigators become more experienced. Couple that with a new North Korean leader anxious to prove his military and security bona fides, and cyber-security specialists in the South and U.S. should be getting plenty of new material.

Thankyou

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DAKOTAKID

1:29 PM ET

March 2, 2012

A Faceless Peacemaker?

Let me jump on the "been there done that" bandwagon. Not that it matters, but I'm a card-carrying Russophile: I like Russia, speak some Russian, and over the years have experienced the hospitality, warmth and generosity of Russians on various occasions." But that doesn't mean a) that I have to like, much less trust, Putin; or b) pretend to have any idea what Putin has up his sleeve. I don't. And neither does anybody else. Read Masha Gessen's new book published here in the United States (and just out today, I believe). Title: "The Man Without a Face". Guess who Gessen is writing about. One thing we know for certain about Putin is that he's ruthless. Another is that he's inscrutable. Gessen argues plausibly that he is also motivated by nostalgia for the good old days when the ghost of Stalin still haunted Mother Russia and whispered in the ears of the Party bosses who tyrannized the country behind the walls of the fortress called the Kremlin. In other words, the Cold War era. When Russia was America's archenemy and vice versa. So rather than portray Putin as a closet dove, let's think of him as Protean Man. He can assume any form you can imagine. Then and only then try to prescribe how best to deal with a small-minded faceless little tyrant who harasses, jails, and sometimes murders his real or imagined enemies. And in so doing, keep in mind that the world is presently witnessing the kind of spontaneous mass demonstrations against the corrupt rule of this mean little man the likes of which we have not seen since the fall of the mighty Soviet Union.

 

GARVAGH

3:24 PM ET

March 2, 2012

Putin has tried to work closely with US

Bravo. Clearly, Putin has sought to cooperate closely with the US, for the mutual benefit of both countries and Europe.

 

JOSSEFPERL

11:58 PM ET

March 3, 2012

Putin the peace maker?

Mr. Trenin is trying to show us how desperately Vladimir Putin have being trying to ally Russia with the United States and how the White House has brushed off all his overtures. It is clear that Mr. Trenin forgot the initial months after Putin took power from Yeltsin when after a meeting with him Margaret Thatcher announced that he was a leader the West "could do business with" while GWB soon after getting elected in the US said that "he looked into Putin's soul" and saw a friend. At that time there were a lot of arguments in the western media about whether Putin could "change his stripes" from being a KGB operator to being a democratic leaders and western leaders were eager to reassure us of the "new" Putin. By now, the answer to that question has become clear to everyone ( most of all to the Russian themselves), that Putin is no democratic leader. Western leaders have long concluded that Putin is a dictator and responding favorably to his overtures would be like collaborating with other dictators (against their own people), i.e., short-term gain for long-term pain. Unlike China which must be reckoned with by the US because of its rising economic power, Russia has a third-world declining economy and a declining population. As Mr. Trenin mentions in the article, Russian leaders are quick to remind the US that they are still a nuclear super power. The problem for Russian leaders like Putin is that the world is no longer impressed by nuclear power held by "rational" countries that are economically weak. The only leverage Russia still has is its seat in the UN Security Council; however using this leverage as Russia is using it today (by supporting Bashar Assad), not only show the true nature of the Putin regime, but will also weaken Russia's influence further.

 

THUSALWAYSTOGENIUS

11:58 PM ET

March 4, 2012

The Federation : Russia’s Putin or Vladimir’s Russia?

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, a former lawyer and KGB (Committee for State Security) officer, has just been re-elected as president of the Russian Federation, for a third non consecutive term.

In 1999, Putin entered the political scene as acting Deputy Prime Minister after Boris Yeltsin’s unexpected resignation. He then transitioned as acting president, which led to his two official presidential terms of eight (8) years, which is the maximum length of time that one can hold such position in Russia. He was then appointed Prime Minister by his successor and long time friend, Dmitry Medvedev.

Four years passes by (that is 4 earth revolutions) and 2012 finally comes around: “Welcome back Mr. Putin. It feels as if you never left.”

Surprised? … not really …

Glasnost? … not really …

Perestroika? … kind of , in a “full circle” kind of way

* Please note that if you are under the impression that Glasnost and Perestroika might be a Vodka based drink that is popular in Moscow’s trendy bars, I invite you to research.

But as I now think of it, these would make great names for drinks….

- Waitress, may I please have glass of Glasnost with two shots of Perestroika?

- Listen, Gorbachev is gone and he is not welcomed back.

- … but didn’t he …

- I suggest you leave the establishment.

Okay Bref, back to business. Over two decades might have elapsed since the cold war but the Soviet mind never forgets (as the fictitious waitress has demonstrated).

Seems as if “Revolution” is as relevant in today’s Russia as it was back in 1991.

Putin has been clearly expressing his views on his nation’s enemies, especially the Americans. He has made it very clear that he is not interest in the “love / hate” distant partnership that the United States is offering.

He often warns the U.S. against military strike on Iran and cautioning them against a NATO styled attack on Syria as it was conducted on Libya.

Although all these omnipresent warnings are addressed to foreigners, he also warns his fellow citizens against potential invasion, such as Napoleon’s of 1812.

From 1812 to 2012, same difference perhaps.

From President, to Prime Minister, to President, same difference perhaps.

From St. Petersburg, to Petrograd, to Leningrad, to once again St. Petersburg.

From Russian Bribes, to Russian Brides, to Russian Pride, to once again Russian Brides.

The earth’s revolution is completed in 365.25 days. As for Russia’s revolution, the clock is ticking…

Ready when you are Vlad. You might just be historically remembered as one of Russia’s emperor, prince or even saint, like the following:

Alexander I the Blessed; Alexander II the Liberator;Alexander III the Peace-Maker; And last but not least, Vladimir IV the ____________; Well done Sir Czar. But always remember … “Thus always to Tyrants” ? “Thus Always to Genius”.

READ MORE AT : THUSALWAYSTOGENIUS.COM

 

KELI WICKENS

12:48 AM ET

March 27, 2012

Putin the Peacemaker- good president

I think that, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is a good president. He contribute so much for Russia economy as well foreign trade policy. I admire him so much, i have met him one time before, i think he is a good leader with the good characters. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin published a policy article in The Moscow News newspaper. His article laid out Russia's foreign policy and the prime minister’s take on international affairs. It also clarified Putin’s main opinions of the Arab Spring, the Iranian nuclear problem, relations between Russia and China and Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The following is a distillation of Putin’s position on foreign affairs in the lead-up to presidential elections in Russia. The article is quite topical and important for those wishing to gain an insight into Putin’s opinions on foreign policy issues.