The Fall of Homs

The rebels may have retreated, but the revolution goes on.

BY MICHAEL WEISS | MARCH 1, 2012

The siege of Homs is over. After a confused and ominous 24-hour news cycle, the Syrian rebels have made a "tactical withdrawal" from the restive neighborhood of Baba Amr, which withstood a month of rocket fire, drone-guided artillery shelling, and possibly even helicopter gunship attacks by President Bashar al-Assad's security forces.

But the rebels' withdrawal was not a total defeat. As of March 1, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) could still boast that it had kept some 7,000 soldiers from Maher al-Assad's elite 4th Division at bay on Baba Amr's outskirts, a claim that appeared corroborated by eyewitness accounts. One Homsi in an adjoining district told me last night, Feb. 29, via Skype that tanks were moving in and out of his street in a violent attempt to enter Baba Amr. They'd failed.

Although Baba Amr's fall was inevitable, the snow and freezing cold cast an image of a Levantine Stalingrad in the making. Electricity and water have been shut off in large parts of Homs -- a city of 1 million people -- for the past three days. Food is scarce, prompting the United Nations to fret about mass starvation.

What happens to the civilians in Baba Amr now, particularly with communication lines cut and no YouTube clips being uploaded, is up to the Assad regime's totalitarian imagination. The regime has apparently given the International Committee of the Red Cross the green light to send in humanitarian aid and evacuate the wounded on March 2. Clearly, this step is designed to lend the impression that the armed rebels were responsible for Baba Amr's misfortunes all along. Sources inside the neighborhood, however, say that a "bloodbath" is currently taking place. Seventeen civilians have been beheaded or partially beheaded by security forces, the activist organization Avaaz said March 1.

With the destruction of the opposition's stronghold in Homs, Syria's revolutionaries aren't going to melt into thin air. U.S. and European policymakers might like to believe that Homsis wake up each morning and consult the writings of Gene Sharp, but the bulk of the opposition now recognizes that the revolution must be accomplished through arms and that returning to the passive resistance of eight months ago would amount to a suicide pact.

After all, it's Assad -- not the revolutionaries -- who transformed this into an armed conflict in the first place. The original peaceful protest movement, which originally called for "reforms," was met with wanton acts of brutality. Nor have most Syrians forgotten that 13-year-old Hamza al-Khatib, an early rallying symbol for the revolution, wasn't carrying a Kalashnikov when Assad's security forces kidnapped him and then delivered his mutilated corpse back to his parents.

Would these security forces and their shabiha mercenaries promise not to arrest, torture, or shoot at more men, women, and children if the opposition disarmed? If so, who'd believe them? Tens of thousands of civilian fighters and military defectors are fanned out all over Syria at present -- will they be granted "amnesty" to trade their guns in for slogans calling for the toppling of the regime?

Alessio Romenzi/AFP/Getty Images

 

Michael Weiss is communications director for the Henry Jackson Society, a foreign-policy think tank based in London. He blogs regularly about Syria and the Middle East for the Daily Telegraph.

TOUFU

10:49 PM ET

March 1, 2012

This is the Tripoli moment

This is the Tripoli moment for the Syrian rebels, or mabey this is the Sirte moment. And Michael Weiss will continue to periodically release audio tapes urge for continued battle.

 

JOHNBOY4546

12:51 AM ET

March 2, 2012

Here's a thought....

"the Free Syrian Army (FSA) could still boast that it had kept some 7,000 soldiers from Maher al-Assad's elite 4th Division at bay on Baba Amr's outskirts"

You know something?

If 7,000 soldiers armed with nothing more than AK-47s are able to keep T-72 Main Battle Tanks from entering Baba Amr then maybe, just maybe, it's because those Armoured Divisions aren't *actually* trying very hard.

I know that doesn't fit too well with the spin that insists that the Syrian Army launched a ferocious assault upon Homs, caring little for the death and destruction that it leaves in its wake.

I understand that it doesn't gel at all well with *that* story.

But I'll repeat the question: in an all-out, knock 'em down, drag 'em out, fight to the finish between AK-47 assault rifle and T-72 Main Battle Tanks who is going to walk all over whom?

Think about it....
Think about it....

 

HELENAT

2:24 AM ET

March 2, 2012

Re: Here's a thought

It did occur to me that if Assad launched a full-frontal assault on Homs, or Baba Amr at least, with all hardware at his disposal, it would be utterly flattened. Like a pancake. I might be wrong. I'm just observing this horror at a distance and wringing my hands helplessly like many others. Shame on Russia, China and Cuba. Major abusers of human rights stick together. Funny that.

 

AJAX3715

10:19 AM ET

March 2, 2012

Dillydallying

When is genocide considered as such? Is there a specific body count (10,000 or 20,000 perhaps) before the West acts? I am reminded of the events that happened in Rwanda when the Clinton government was debating the semantics of "acts of genocide" as opposed to genocide. We know what happened there as a result of their dillydallying.

Rightly or wrongly, the Obama administration is perceived as trying its mighty best to distance itself from the quagmire. As this is an election season, Obama is doing his best not to go to war before the polls as it might derail his chances of reelection (the US economy may tank as a result of skyrocketing oil and gas prices and financial instability).

But civilians are indiscriminately being killed by forces that are supposed to protect them. Somebody in the the West must at least be brave enough to say enough is enough and act. Where is Tony Blair when we need him the most? Granted that many of the Americans may not have much sympathy towards the poor Syrian Arabs because of lingering stereotypes, but are they just going to stand aside and let a murderous regime kill its own people just as Clinton did in Rwanda.

Perhaps, the ultra-conservatives are right, Democrats do not have the balls to face go to war on principle. I fear that the Republicans, should they manage to unseat Obama this coming elections, may be too late to do anything with Syria or, for that matter, Iran.

 

KASSIOUN

12:17 PM ET

March 2, 2012

The Syrian revolt according to a neocon (Weiss)

"Would these security forces and their shabiha mercenaries promise not to arrest, torture, or shoot at more men, women, and children if the opposition disarmed"

Well Mr. Weiss, would you be asking the Syrian security forces to let the rebels go? Torture Mr. Weiss, like the Amreicans torturing their captives and Iraqi insurgents? I suspect any day now the Syrians will be sending a lot of these rebels to the US as part of their "rendering" program so they can be tortured in the states. Were yuo asleep Mr. Weiss when the state dept admitted that a lot of AL Qaeda fighters made their way to Homs, do you think the Syrians should let these people go and if you are concerned about their safety, would you like Syria to send them to the US?

Mr. Weiss knows as much about the revolt in Syria as he knows about the Iran/Israel conflict... OOps not true, because Mr. Weiss actually wants the US to Bomb Iran to save Israel. He actually believes that bombing Iran would be OK and it would not be a big problem. Which is really why he is even paying attention to Syria. He could care less about Syria and Syrians except that by weakening the only Mid East country that supports Iran, Israel can go ahead and bomb Iran and not worry about its northern flank.

As usual Mr. Weiss resorts to exaggerations and inflating the numbers of the rebels to show that they represent a good portion of Syrians. The truth is that their numbers are small and they are comprised by smugglers, thugs and of course Al Qaeda. Homs, or should I say Baba amr is free Mr. Weiss, the Syrian army liberated it from the criminals and hopefully those boys will be in jail about as long as the boys in Guantanamo had to endure.

As far as Burhan Ghalioun is concerned, well, the americans have a history of propping up idiots like that while they are useful. When the time comes, Mr. Ghalioun will disappear into the history pages becuase even if he manages to survive until Assad leaves, no Syrian will allow this western puppet enter or serve in Syria. We do not like traitors. Ghalioun will move to the US where more failed conspirators finally retire, along with Chalabi and the likes of these two. Who knows, maybe someday he will run for congress.

 

NAKH

12:42 PM ET

March 2, 2012

ONE SIDE OF THE STORY

Why American Media insists in showing one part of the story. Free syrian army are group of terrorists and thugs. Government has a huge support from the public

 

THE_OBSERVER

4:48 PM ET

March 2, 2012

So much for "freedom fighters"

Apparently, when they knew they were about to be overrun the imported Salifist "rebels" started killing off those they didn't like (including Christians) in Homs. See:

http://rt.com/news/syrian-witness-report-rebel-crimes-639/

Congratulations to the Syrian regime on removing these GCC backed mercenaries from Homs.
Round 1 is over but it's now obvious that the Syrians are not just fighting a civil war but a hostile GCC as well . Kuwaiti politicians, in addition to Saudi and Qatari ones are calling for arming the rebels but what they are more shocked is that the first wave of mercenary Salafists they sent in have been beaten back. If I were the Syrians I would crush the fleeing Hom rebels and mercenaries, continue with democratic reforms and voting, offer China and Russia incentives for their continual backing, seal that border with Turkey where the GCC have set up a second lot of Salafists, set up corps of counter-strike forces to handle the expected groups of infiltrators, and dig in for the long haul. This will have to be considered a fight to the death for the Alawites,

 

MYMYMY

6:16 PM ET

March 6, 2012

Well Mr. Weiss, would you be

Well Mr. Weiss, would you be asking the Syrian security forces to let the rebels go? Torture Mr. Weiss, like the Amreicans torturing their captives and Iraqi insurgents? I suspect any day now the Syrians will be sending a lot of these rebels to the US as part of their "rendering" program sex so they can be tortured in the states. Were yuo asleep Mr. Weiss when the state dept admitted that a lot of AL Qaeda fighters made their way to Homs, do you think the Syrians should let these people go and if you are concerned about their safety, would you like Syria to send them to the US?

 

LEEANNA PAGANELLI

3:02 AM ET

March 29, 2012

I think that, the government

I think that, the government need to do everything to the nation, What would happen with million of people without foods, electric, water...What happens to the civilians in Baba Amr now, particularly with communication lines cut and no YouTube clips being uploaded, is up to the Assad regime's totalitarian imagination? Electricity and water have been shut off in large parts of Homs -- a city of 1 million people -- for the past three days. Food is scarce, prompting the United Nations to fret about mass starvation. It is a bad news, I hope that United Nation will have best policy to support for the people in this place.