
1. Fish for neighbors. I'm from a family of real estate developers. In the business, the three most important factors are location, location, location. If you want to understand why America behaves the way it does abroad, start with location. We have achieved a degree of physical security and detachment unprecedented in the history of great powers. To our north and south we have nonpredatory neighbors; to our east and west, oceans and fish -- what one historian called our liquid assets.
This single fact goes a long way in explaining our naiveté. From Woodrow Wilson to Barack Obama and from China to Israel, we have a tough time understanding the world of lesser powers who live on the knife's edge (or even the competitive world of great ones) all that well. We too often assume they are like us or somehow want to be. And in the rough and tumble world of Middle East politics, especially, that's a serious liability. Location and the security and prosperity it carries also explain our boundless optimism and our conviction that all problems somehow can be resolved, when in fact that may not be the case. I would very much like to believe that Obama's former peace envoy, George Mitchell, one of our most talented negotiators, is right that conflict made by men and women, whether Irish or Israeli, can be resolved by them, but I'm not at all sure he's right.
Our physical power combined with our detachment also explains our arrogance. We often don't listen because we believe we don't have to. It was the cruelest of ironies that in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, a moment of unprecedented vulnerability, instead of assessing our strengths and weaknesses accurately, we launched a discretionary war in Iraq -- a trillion-dollar social science experiment, really -- that cost thousands of lives and life-wrecking injuries and sapped our strength and credibility.
2. "Trying and failing is better than not trying at all." I'll never forget how impressed and inspired I was by those words (President Clinton's) after we briefed him in the run-up to the July 2000 Camp David summit. Pushed by an Israeli prime minister with grandiose ambitions and to whom we wouldn't say no, and enabled by the rest of us who thought it was worth a try, we plunged ahead with no strategy and without much regard to the costs of failure.
The old college try may be an appropriate slogan for an NCAA football team; it isn't a substitute for the foreign policy of the most powerful nation on Earth. Failure costs and accumulates because, unlike success -- the world's most compelling ideology -- it doesn't generate power and constituents. Today, Americans are not taken seriously in Middle East peacemaking because of our repeated failures and our preference for process over results. As a consequence, our street cred on this issue is near zero. These days, everyone one from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says no to America without cost or consequence. And failing in the Middle East or in any area emboldens others -- Russians, Chinese -- to take us less seriously too.


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