Misreading Tehran

Iranians realize that the world is lined up against them, but don't expect them to beg for mercy.

BY JASON REZAIAN | MARCH 15, 2012

While the international media has spilled a great deal of ink debating the legitimacy of Iran's electoral process, the argument within the country appears to have largely been settled. Two of the 2009 Green Movement's most prominent leaders -- former presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami -- cast ballots in the parliamentary election, apparently to show their confidence in the system.

Rafsanjani and Khatami's decision won them no fans in Iran's increasingly marginalized world of opposition politics. Khatami in particular has been branded a traitor by many reformists, and his decision to vote has been the subject of several biting political cartoons. What their votes did accomplish, however, was to ensure that both maintained their political heartbeats within the Islamic Republic establishment, which is currently the only show in town.

As some Western and Israeli leaders hold out hope for a domestic uprising that rearranges Iran's political system, they seem unable to grasp this essential fact. Even in the face of severe economic and political isolation, no existential domestic threat is worrying the Islamic Republic's leadership as it did in the months following the 2009 presidential election. Air attacks on Iran's nuclear program, meanwhile, are viewed as a manageable inconvenience.

Given Iranian leaders' calculations, their recent hard line toward negotiations with international powers should come as no surprise. We've got money, sanctions on our oil don't hurt us much as they'll hurt you -- and we're not shutting down our enrichment program, the logic goes.

That's not to say Iranians wouldn't be open to compromise under the right circumstances.  Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, kept the door open to talks in a recent letter to EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. "If major powers adopt a positive approach toward Iran's nuclear program, we will consider it a step forward in the negotiation process," he wrote.

The views of average Iranians reflect slightly different priorities. There is no doubt that citizens' daily lives are deeply affected by international sanctions -- Iran's import-dependent economy is struggling, and the riyal has lost half its buying power since the beginning of the year. What's more, the progress of Iran's nuclear program isn't a top priority for many of the country's citizens. Nevertheless, it is increasingly difficult to find people who believe the leadership should concede on this issue.

While complaints are rampant about the soaring prices of consumer goods, and Iranians lay plenty of the blame at the feet of the government for economic mismanagement and long-standing corruption, shutting down Iran's nuclear program -- which, incidentally was originally started with the help of the United States in the 1970s -- is out of the question. The essence of the not-so-sophisticated argument employed by Iranians at all levels of society is: "If other countries can have enrichment programs, why can't we?"

With sanctions biting, ever-industrious Iranians have found ways to do business under the table -- and, as usual in these situations, the wrong people are benefitting. Crooked politicians, the greedy Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps elite, smugglers, and low-level middle men have all gotten rich by preying on the misfortunes of others -- while average Iranians suffer.

Iran's sanctions profiteers also have their choice of luxury goods to choose from in Tehran. An insane proliferation of European luxury cars has been building in the capital for several months -- a Maserati dealership is set to open any day now, just off one of central Tehran's main squares. Some Iranians see their country's capacity for unchecked consumption as progress, but it's also a reminder that the economy is still functioning, even if top White House officials insist that sanctions are "working."

What is really at stake is Iran's relatively high standard of living, not something so grave as starvation. Iranians asked about their country's economic struggles resent comparisons with any countries other than those of the developed world.

"You can't compare us to Africa," they say, with the understanding being what they mean is that "we're better than that." They don't even accept comparisons with Arab countries and their uprisings. Turkey and the United Arab Emirates -- relative success stories in the region, which Iranians believe have thrived due in large part to Iranian investment -- are topics better left alone.

Iranians are unsatisfied with many aspects of their leadership, but certainly aren't eager for a war or even a revolution. They are proud of their accomplishments, old and new, and want to be acknowledged for both. From Tehran, it's hard to see how Washington's strategy -- which seems to hold no incentives for the Iranian state or its people -- can ever fulfill these aims. Iranians feel as if their arms are being twisted, and one thing that should be crystal clear by now is that they are not known for saying "uncle."

 SUBJECTS:
 

Jason Rezaian is an American journalist based in Tehran.

RESPECTABLE LADY

7:24 PM ET

March 15, 2012

Unexplained Aspect of Iran debate

I believe there was a FP article posted that said that even the IAEA and US government agree that there is no weapons work in Iran?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/19/stop_the_madness

 

JAMESS

11:13 PM ET

March 15, 2012

Iranians are doing their best

Iranians are doing their best to beat America in technology and they don't scared of America as others countries so they are trying to did their best in it.And I just love the present president of Iran. He is best of all presidents in the modern era.|Buy a Research Paper Online|
Research Paper Writer|Write my research paper for me|

 

KTS10110

6:17 PM ET

March 16, 2012

Beating America in technology?

You do realize that the US has had all the technology Iran now possesses for decades right? We put a man on the moon in 1969 and Iran hasn't even come close to putting a guy in space.

 

REPUBLICANS.SUK@GMAIL.COM

6:49 PM ET

April 13, 2012

spammer

that guy above is just a spammer, disregard him. he's provoking you to read his spam links underneath. trust me, no Iranians I know of have ever like the president and never will.

 

BWADETIBA

11:45 PM ET

March 15, 2012

Difft from American MSM

Huh? Iranians are rational? Listening to 3/4 GOP candidates and MSM, I was convinced Iranians were backwards, irrational, primitive people. Darn.

 

ONABUS

1:50 AM ET

March 16, 2012

Iranians are isolated?

'Iranians realize that the world is lined up against them, but don't expect them to beg for mercy.'
It's just not true. China, Russia, India etc., are going to buck these sanctions. In fact, a 70 strong Indian business delegation has just returned from Iran. Every free nation's foreign policy is geared towards this aim.
And not every country is controlled by the AIPAC.

 

HASS

6:20 PM ET

March 16, 2012

Umm... "The Jews" say so themselves.

Israelis congratulate themselves on influencing US foreign policy:

http://www.iranaffairs.com/iran_affairs/2012/03/israels-media-campaign-on-iran.html

Their chief lobbyists boast about being able to get 70 US Senators to sign his dinner napkin in 1 hour.

 

REPUBLICANS.SUK@GMAIL.COM

7:57 PM ET

April 13, 2012

AIPAC does help or persuade US foreign policy in the mid-east...

and it's not some conspiracy theory. However to be fair AIPAC doesn't hardly donate much money to congressional political campaigns as compared to Big Oil. There really isn't much of a claim that AIPAC bribes our politicians. The US Congress easily sways themselves in favor of Israeli policies for dedicated votes during election season. Just look back at the 2008 presidential election where all the candidates were wearing AIPAC knee-pads. Never in the history of the US has it ever been so blantant. AIPAC and other pro-Israeli lobby groups don't control countries like the ignorant statement posted above, but they heavily influence the sway of congress.

The documentary, Defamation, by Israeli Yoav Shamir demonstrated that an eastern european country who couldn't directly get US Aid used the ADL to lobby on their behalf to ultimately receive it as long as they accepted the ADL's staunch belief that antisemitism is rampant in their country.

 

JONDUEBLAZE

12:23 PM ET

March 16, 2012

Don't be

Don't be such a racist, Not all Iranians are what you think. "Persian is simply an ethnicity. Many Iranians don't consider themselves Persian, because they're not ethnically Persian. Also, Farsi is a modern variant of classical Persian. Languages evolve throughout time and Persian/Farsi is no different so I don't know where you got this from search engine optimization. There's also no "Persian" religion; Persian throughout time have practiced Zoroastrianism, Sunni and Shia Islam, as well as various other religions. And again, cultures change over time. Would you say that Germans aren't really German because they don't have an identical culture to the Germanic culture that existed 1500 years ago?" - let them be..

 

TARQUINIS

3:26 PM ET

March 16, 2012

Zionists: A second thought is appropriate

Iran with no nuclear weapons is zero military threat against nuclear superpower Israel, and much less a threat to the USA.

Israel (which refuses to sign or abide by the NPT) is in possession of many hundreds of nuclear warheads. More importantly, it possesses the most advanced delivery systems in the world including nuclear powered ballistic missile firing submarines. A nation with zero nuclear weapons does not attack another with hundreds. Even if (a hypothetical) Iran did some day acquire a nuclear weapon (to secure itself from vicarious nuclear attack) it could never use it against Israel because of the intertwined nature of the Palestinian and Israeli populations. Al-Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest site in world Islam is in Jerusalem and they would never risk its destruction.

But lets just ignore all of that. I ask all the Zionist posters howling for war, to seriously consider the CONSEQUENCES of an Israeli attack.

If you are paying attention, Syria is currently and steadily sliding into chaos. What originally was a movement in support of democracy is now steadily moving into a sectarian conflict between the Shiia and the Sunni. The Saudis are going to finance weapons for the insurgency. The Shiia of Lebanon and Iran are fearful of major political loss in this, and reluctantly but to date resolutely, continue to back Al-Assad. A war against Iran initiated by Israel would spread to our interests in about half an hour. Iran would certainly hit back to the best their abilities. Prices for petroleum would certainly skyrocket to who knows what level, collapsing our fragile economy like a house of cards. Same for the whole world's economy for the same reasons. Mass chaos from Lebanon to Pakistan. Things quickly spiral out of control. Afghanistan explodes. Al-Qaeda claps its hands in glee in Yemen and Somalia. China and Russia get quite hostile. Radioactive clouds drift eastward over India. And of course in this event, Iran would conclude that it must quickly obtain a nuclear WMD capability. Achieving exactly what you claim you want to avoid!

Great! An Israeli attack slams the whole world into what? A bridge too far? Total global chaos? Choose your own apocalyptic metaphors.

But if the Zionist posters care for nothing else, consider this: An Israeli attack would certainly result in consequences so horrendous, their current political support in the US could evaporate literally overnight.

 

ZULA ROSHER

2:30 AM ET

April 14, 2012

Iranians on Nuclear Program Declin

A new popular opinion survey conducted by ISPA, Iranian Students’ Polling Agency, shows that residents of Tehran believe that the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been unsuccessful in moving forward Iran’s nuclear case and in country the government’s message to the public. ISPA, which operates under the Ministry of Higher Education, polled 1172 residents of Tehran this month