6. The Proverbial Third Party
If some of the conditions discussed above are present, the mediator has a chance of success. The problem, of course, is that all too often those conditions don't exist. The result -- no matter how much commitment and enthusiasm abound on the part of the third party -- is failure.
The debate will rage on for years about the extent to which an outside party can serve as a catalyst to energize the locals in any dispute. My views on this matter have hardened considerably over the years, at least in the context of the Arab-Israeli conflict, which I know best. After all, failure can be life's great teacher. America has the capacity to affect any situation. But it does not have the capacity to create the will and political courage for parties locked in an existential struggle. The United States has had a difficult time succeeding even when the above factors are present.
In the history of the Arab-Israeli negotiations, there's no precedent for a successful U.S. initiative that wasn't preceded by some bold act of war or diplomacy on the part of the locals. The inconvenient truth is that the old saw -- so despised and ridiculed by peace processors everywhere -- was right all along: The mediator can't want a deal more than the parties themselves.
Don't believe this eternal truth? Think only about this: The only three breakthroughs in the history of Arab-Israeli peacemaking -- involving Israeli deals with the Egyptians, Jordanians, and Palestinians -- came about through secret diplomacy in which Washington wasn't even involved. The negotiators' highway, after all, always traverses somebody else's land. It's a lesson that Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama have all learned the hard way: If you don't know the real estate, it's easy to get lost along the way.
Pete Souza/The White House via Getty Images
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