POLAND
Will it become the next pivot state in Eastern Europe?
Squeezed between major European powers Germany and Russia, Poland has long been the "plaything of geography," as Kaplan puts it. The Baltic Sea and Carpathian Mountains make for natural borders in the north and south, but the country's eastern and western edges are relatively undifferentiated flatlands. As a result, Poland's borders have shifted back and forth and even disappeared altogether at various points throughout history. Now, Poland stands to assume the role of a major pivot state between Western and Eastern Europe, especially if Ukraine slips into the Russian orbit. Not only has Poland strengthened ties with Germany since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but if it can capitalize on possibly significant shale-gas deposits, it could become an energy producer in its own right -- potentially giving it more political leverage than ever, particularly in dealing with gas giant Russia.
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