Upon first glance, it could be easy to assume that there is very little new to be found in the 2012 Failed States Index. After all, Finland has managed to win first place back-to-back this year and last, and Somalia now has the ignominious distinction of five-straight worst-place finishes. Nine of the "worst" 10 countries in 2012 are the same as in 2011, and at the other end of the Index, the "best" 10 are the same countries as last year. So, nothing has really changed, right?
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Wrong. In fact, this year's list saw some of the most dramatic shifts since the Index was first published in 2005. In the past eight years, three of the five most significant "worsenings" occurred in 2012. Prior to this year's Index, the most significant decline had been Lebanon in 2007 -- which rose by 11.9 points -- coinciding with the conflict with neighboring Israel. (A higher score and ranking indicate poorer pe Messner rformance.) This year, two countries managed to top that record, and both for very different reasons.
Unsurprisingly, the greatest worsening was that of Libya, which moved 16.2 points from its 2011 score, as the country endured a civil war, sustained NATO bombing, and the overthrow and assassination of its reviled leader, Muammar al-Qaddafi. After finishing 111th on the 2011 Index, Libya now finds itself at 50th.
When we think of state fragility and susceptibility to collapse, we often think of poor and embattled countries -- those with corrupt, undemocratic leaders. It therefore is somewhat surprising that 2012's second-most dramatic worsening -- and, coincidentally the second-largest move up the list in the history of the Index -- was the world's third-largest economy and a democratic state at that: Japan. The 9.0 magnitude earthquake that struck the country on March 11 and the resultant catastrophic meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor overwhelmed the government, undermining its ability to respond adequately to the natural disaster and its effects. This was somewhat reminiscent of the shock felt by many Americans at the response of their government to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Though Japan is in no danger of state failure -- indeed, it still ranks 151st, only a single point outside of the "sustainable," or top-scoring range, on the Index -- it nevertheless demonstrates that no country, however advanced, wealthy, and democratic, can consider itself immune from pressure and significant shocks.
Among the 10 most significant "worsenings" in 2012, six were experienced by Arab countries -- Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen -- as a result of the turmoil that followed the Arab Spring. Three Western countries were also among those 10. Aside from Japan, both Norway and Greece found themselves in this group. The bombing and mass shooting by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway demonstrated how a single, nationally traumatic event can negatively impact an otherwise highly stable country. Norway, which held the top position on the Index for its first six years, now finds itself behind four other countries, though still within the sustainable bracket. Greece, somewhat unsurprisingly, rounds out the top 10 biggest sliders for 2012. The epicenter of much of the European economic crisis, Greece has hit new heights on the Index, the result of a long-term trend of continual decline in six out of the past seven years.
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