Aaron David Miller
When Barack Obama announced that he would name Hillary
Clinton as secretary of state, I was one of the skeptics that Susan Glasser
mentions in her article.
I wrote at the time that I worried
the collection of high-voltage personalities in the new administration’s foreign-policy
space would crowd out the unique opportunity Obama had to be a leader for a
world in transition.
Sadly, I do think the president has largely missed that shot
for global leadership -- but it’s not, as I feared, because Secretary Clinton
has been hogging the limelight. Indeed, it turns out this president is most
comfortable out of the limelight altogether, running covert action. His view of
the public hand-shaking aspect of foreign affairs turns out to be the same line
he scribbled as a first-term senator watching the showboating Joe Biden chair
the Foreign Relations Committee: “Shoot me now.”
Which is why Clinton has turned out to be a good stand-in
for our shy president: She is willing to go anywhere, meet anyone, travel to
the most remote, god-awful conferences, press the global flesh at town-hall
meetings and in the local media. Sometimes she looks as beat-up as a UFC
fighter who’s been a victim of “pound and ground,” but she’s all the more
lovable for it. As far as I’m concerned, she has significantly strengthened her
credentials to be president by working so hard as a journeyman secretary of
But what has she actually accomplished, beyond logging all
those miles so dutifully? Her three high-visibility appointees for what were
expected to be the key backroom negotiating positions -- Richard Holbrooke,
Dennis Ross, and George Mitchell -- never really had anything to negotiate. They
each had high public profiles, much as Clinton did, and each made the White
House nervous partly for that reason. But their negotiating moments never
really arrived. Indeed, it was only when Clinton selected as her key confidante
Jake Sullivan -- a brilliant young analyst but the ultimate “gray man” -- that
she seemed to operate more strategically.
My biggest knock on Clinton is that she didn’t find a way to
get more done in her role as the president’s diplomatic emissary, broker, and
fixer. Comparing anyone to Henry Kissinger is unfair for lots of reasons -- even
Kissinger doesn’t measure up to the mythic portrait we’ve inherited of the
modern Machiavelli. But sadly, Glasser is probably right when she says of
Clinton’s bargaining in Beijing over the fate of a relatively unknown and
low-impact dissident, Chen Guangcheng: “This had been the most intense
high-stakes diplomacy of Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state.”
Can this really be true? Was the Chen negotiation as good as
it will get for Clinton? I fear the answer is yes.
David Ignatius is a columnist for the Washington Post and author most recently of the
Shimon Peres, Israel's only remaining statesman, had a
penetrating insight last week when he spoke at a Brookings event about Hillary
Clinton's tenure as secretary of state.
He noted that all her predecessors had to deal with international
relations, but Clinton has to deal with "global responsibility." Peres
observed that we live in a world that has a global economy without global
government and Clinton has been filling the gap by constantly engaging with
people as well as governments with her passionate commitment to improving the
world, one trip at a time.
Susan Glasser captures well these peripatetic requirements
of the first global secretary of state and the impressive way that Clinton handles
them. It accounts for her popularity at home and abroad, in contrast with her president's
standing in both arenas. She is after all "the principal implementer"
of policies decided in the White House, as Denis McDonough, Obama's deputy
national security advisor, describes her in Glasser's article. But Clinton is
turning up for a president who prefers to remain as aloof as possible in a
world that demands engagement. At a time when the United States can no longer
dictate the way and has to try to lead by consensus, it's the secretary of state
who is out there working at it every day.
It paid off in Libya, and it will eventually pay off in
Syria, where Obama delegated the heavy lifting to her from the outset while the
political dictates of his re-election campaign left her without the tools of
coercive diplomacy. Her unenviable task is to split the Russians from Bashar
al-Assad using the unlikely combination of diplomatic deftness, a ringmaster's whip,
and a verbal sledgehammer.
The "pivot" to East Asia will probably be Obama's
most lasting strategic achievement, as we argue in Bending
History: Barack Obama's Foreign Policy (written with my colleagues
Kenneth Lieberthal and Michael O'Hanlon). But as Glasser points out, it is Clinton's
too. She laid the groundwork, built the relationships, and developed the complex
architecture of the new strategy -- and she turned up at that pivotal moment in
Vietnam in July 2010 to declare the U.S. commitment to the region.
Of course, there were failures too. Diplomacy is really
hard, especially these days. Clinton so
wanted to finish the job of Middle East peacemaking that her husband had been
unable to do at the end of his presidency. Skeptical of Benjamin Netanyahu's
intentions, she used her envoy George Mitchell to test the waters. But in the summer
of 2010 she weighed in and by the fall she was spending eight hours straight
with Bibi negotiating an agreement to extend the settlement moratorium that
might have given the peace negotiations more time to succeed. We will never
know what she might have achieved. The White House pulled the plug on that
agreement and then the president walked away from the larger effort, leaving
his "implementer" without a "decider."
Martin Indyk is director
of the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution and author of Bending
History: Barack Obama's Foreign Policy
with Kenneth Lieberthal and Michael O'Hanlon.
Hillary Clinton has done a fine job as secretary of state
-- so much better than I, conservative by ideology, ever expected. While
not attaining the level of Dean Acheson or Henry Kissinger, she will sit
securely in the second rank. Secretary Clinton has had two outstanding
attributes, and two notable deficiencies.
First, she was outstanding in showing up. Being secretary
of state is not a desk job but a plane job. She climbed aboard and jetted
off to meetings with her counterparts in their home towns. As a former
politician -- helping to manage her husband’s unending campaigns in and out of
office, her own campaign-like role as first lady, and then running for and
serving as senator from New York -- she learned that there’s nothing like being
there, wherever “there” is.
Second, related, and more importantly, she understood the
modern role of secretary of state, and indeed of all diplomacy nowadays. It’s
no longer private diplomacy -- the hushed messages and secret cables between
top officials -- but public diplomacy, the full-voiced pronouncement of a clear
policy explained both to elites and publics abroad and at home.
Despite what the State Department professionals and their
colleagues in the Council on Foreign Relations and the like maintain, little of
importance happens behind closed doors. Most everything important nowadays
happens behind open microphones, and in town meetings. At this, again because
of her political campaign background, not any professional foreign policy
experience, Hillary Clinton has excelled.
On to her deficiencies. It’s frequently said but
nonetheless true that there’s no overarching concept, thought, even bumper
sticker for Obama-Clinton foreign policy. “Leading from behind” was
foisted upon it via an anonymous quote in the New Yorker rather than flaunted by the administration. Otherwise,
nothing much sticks.
This reveals that all their policy was fairly makeshift. While
flying by the seat of your pants is necessary for a lot of foreign
policy-making, it shouldn’t be all of foreign policy-making. I sense it
has been over the past four years.
Second and related, on the most momentous events of her
time in office -- the misnamed Arab Spring -- she was too
traditional and not sufficiently revolutionary. The administration’s stance --
from the outset of the Green Revolution in Iran to Tahrir Square in Egypt to
early stirrings in Libya and now to Hama-like resistance across Syria -- has
been, in the words of that great American philosopher Gene Autry, “Whoa, big
Imagine the historic achievement Secretary Clinton could
have made had she actively pushed and succeeded in fostering home-grown regime
change (the best type there is) in key Middle East countries. Imagine if
she had helped reform such dreadful places, all vigorously opposed to U.S.
interests in the region, in Iran, Libya, and Syria. That, had it happened,
would have placed her solidly in the first rank of secretaries of state.
Ken Adelman was a U.N.
ambassador and arms control director under Ronald Reagan, and now conducts
leadership development for corporations using scenes from Shakespeare.
Give Hillary Clinton credit: She’s not a leaker, not a drama
queen, not a credit stealer. Then again, there’s little to take credit
for. The United States is in retreat, our profile lower across the
globe. We’ve hightailed it out of Iraq, ignored the Arab Spring and its
aftermath, appear to have little policy on the euro other than prayer, are
drawing away from Afghanistan, Pakistan is a shambles, and China’s shadow looms
ever longer over the Pacific. There’s no Middle East peace process; a disaster is
coming in Yemen; the reset with Russia’s a bust. Negotiations with Iran
are going nowhere fast and North Korea keeps threatening to detonate yet
another nuclear device. South America is drifting.
What’s Hillary Clinton’s greatest success? That this mess is
none of her doing. She has focused small, and succeeded small, looking at under-the-radar
initiatives and targeted projects. To put it another way, she succeeded in
Burma because the White House didn’t care. Could she have been a great secretary
of state? She might have been, had she not been overshadowed and squashed,
edged out and talked down, dismissed and derided by the most insular,
politically vicious White House in recent memory.
Nothing that matters is in State’s purview, even if it seems
to be. Decisions come from the White House. Assistant secretaries of state
… who are they? What do they do? How many have prospered in this administration?
Risen up, moved over, gone anywhere? Even in Susan Glasser’s fine profile of
the secretary, White House enforcer Denis McDonough refers to Clinton as “the
principal implementer” of foreign policy. Not the president’s chief advisor? His
trusted secretary of state? Nope, McDonough implies -- the White House says
“jump” and Foggy Bottom asks “how high?”
Like this president or hate him, like Hillary Clinton or
hate her, the marginalization of the State Department to the National Security
Council is a development to be regretted. NSC staff can’t do it all;
indeed, it seems they can’t do most of it. Foreign governments complain
incessantly that State doesn’t know what the White House is thinking and, in
turn, they can’t get a meeting at the White House. Ironically, much of
State’s apparat is inclined to be sympathetic to a Democratic president, but can’t
get a word in edgewise because they’re not in the political inner circle. Centuries
of professional experience have become irrelevant to a foreign policy fashioned
around the question “What will this do for me in November?”
Surely Hillary Clinton knew it was politics that dictated
her appointment as secretary of state; ironically, it will be politics,
personal and otherwise, that relegates her to a minor role in the Obama
saga. Given the foreign-policy disasters the next president will face, we
can only wonder what might have been had she been allowed to be more than an
Danielle Pletka is vice president for foreign
and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
Absent further developments or revelations, history will
judge Hillary Clinton's tenure as secretary of state as solid if unspectacular.
Circumstances have denied her opportunities for the transformative
accomplishments of Dean Acheson (designing a new world order), George Marshall
(rebuilding Europe), Henry Kissinger (opening to China), James Baker
(reunifying Germany) or Madeline Albright (pacifying the Balkans). Neither,
however, has she been associated with signal failures, like the Vietnam peace
accord, the Iranian hostage crisis, or the nonexistent Iraqi WMD that blighted
the records of some of her predecessors. She is reportedly not an intimate
confidante of the president, like Henry Kissinger, James Baker, or Condoleeza
Rice before her. But nor is she ignored by the White House, as was Richard
Nixon's first secretary of state, William Rogers; repeatedly undercut, like
Colin Powell; led to resign in protest, like Cyrus Vance; or fired, like
The Arab Spring may well presage changes as great and as
beneficial as some of those earlier turning points that Acheson, Marshall,
Baker, and Albright helped shape. Unfortunately, the United States has been
poorly placed to lead or take much credit for changes in the Middle East by
virtue of its support for the former regimes, its failure for more than 40
years to broker an Arab-Israeli peace, and its effort to democratize Iraq via invasion
and occupation. Given all this negative baggage, the decisive American
contribution to Libya's successful revolution must be seen as a major
achievement, one that has begun to validate America's democratic credentials in
the Arab world. American diplomacy was particularly adept at putting together
and maintaining the broad international coalition that conducted this
intervention, for which Hillary Clinton and her team deserve considerable
Syria now presents a much harder test, however. There, as
elsewhere, diplomacy can be an alternative to more forceful action or a
necessary prelude. It is still possible, although increasingly unlikely, that
Bashar al-Assad can be forced out of office by a combination of internal
resistance and external political and economic pressures. It is going to be
hard to continue to play this hand for the remainder of President Obama's term
as the world watches casualties continue to mount, abuses proliferate, genocide
threatens, and extremist elements gain ground. If such is the legacy Clinton
leaves her successor, then this failure to stem an escalating civil war at the
center of the Arab world may mark her record as much as any of her many
James Dobbins, a
former U.S. assistant secretary of state and special envoy under the Bill
Clinton and George W. Bush administrations, is director of the International
Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit,
nonpartisan research institution.
Secretary Clinton has done
a reasonably good job: She conducted the first Quadrennial Diplomacy and
Development Review (QDDR), traveled relentlessly to represent the United States
and engage both governments and societies, and is often a vocal advocate of
human rights and political liberties.
But it is difficult to
think of a major achievement for which she was a motive force. The possible exception is the 2009 decision to surge troops
in Afghanistan, which Secretary Clinton supported; it may not have gotten White
House approval without Defense and State in lockstep, given the White House's
enmity toward the Pentagon during the Afghanistan reviews.
Still, the policy was poorly thought
through, most particularly on the diplomatic grounds that are her
responsibility. Announcing a time-limited surge virtually ensured the major
regional actors started hedging against our withdrawal. Our relationships
with the leaders of Afghanistan and Pakistan -- on which the success of our war
efforts fundamentally relies -- are a shambles, and those, too, are the secretary's
responsibility (even if other cabinet members complicate her work, as Defense Secretary Leon Panetta
recently did in India).
The QDDR was not carried
through to changing either the culture or the practices of the department. Both
architects of the review left just after it was concluded. Working groups
chartered to implement its decisions are still considering what needs doing.
Indeed, all that has been achieved is the reorganization of senior
responsibilities in the department (sample: the Under Secretary of Global
Affairs was renamed the Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy, and
Human Rights). Clinton's State Department has no management plan for
implementing the QDDR, and institutional change cannot succeed without
attentive leadership at the top.
And leadership is essential in this job. Whether
it was her choice or a White House decision to appoint numerous special
diplomatic representatives (Holbrooke, Ross, Mitchell), the effect was to
distance the secretary of state from the most important foreign-policy
Clinton's judgment seems
particularly lacking with respect to democratizing countries. From her
early statement that there is more to U.S.-China relations than human rights,
to her insistence during the Arab Spring that Syria's Bashar al-Assad was a "reformer,"
to last month's unconditional waiver on assistance to the Egyptian military,
she has been slow to recognize change occurring and more tied to the status quo
than I would have expected.
Still, the difficulties
are not entirely of her making. President Obama seems to exclude his cabinet
and military leadership from major national security decisions; journalistic
accounts of this administration routinely describe NSC meetings at which
Secretary Clinton and others speak, then the president retires with political
aides to make decisions. When prompted by Foreign
Policy to describe Clinton's contribution, deputy national security advisor
Denis McDonough called her the "implementer in chief," which is pretty faint
praise. This is simply not a president who likes to share the limelight.
Kori Schake is fellow at the Hoover Institution
and associate professor at the United States Military Academy. She has
previously worked in the Pentagon, National Security Council, and State
Department. She is author of State of Disrepair: Fixing the Culture and Practices of the
Aaron David Miller:
Almost four years in, what can we say about -- and how do we
judge -- Hillary
Clinton as a secretary of state? Great, consequential, average, below
The cruel nature of the world America now inhabits and the president's
style of keeping control of the big issues never really gave her a chance to
reach for, let alone achieve greatness as the nation's top diplomat. She
may never have wanted to. The big issues --Iran, Arab-Israeli peace, even the
Arab Spring -- have loser written all over them, and Secretary Clinton may yet
have the final chuckle. Still, we can't admit her into the Secretary of State
Hall of Fame (John Quincy Adams; Thomas Jefferson; George Marshall; Dean
Acheson; Henry Kissinger; James Baker, to name a few) on political smarts and
So what can we say?
Most Popular Woman on the Planet
Given the depths to which America's stock in the world had
fallen, we really did need a superstar to try to buck things up. The main
thing was to at least try talking instead of shooting. Hillary talked. She
worked to strengthen America's partnerships with regional organizations and to
bolster the organizations themselves. New dialogues were created and old
ones improved in the Persian Gulf, in East Asia, in Africa, and in the
Arab world. And she charmed America, too. Earlier this year her personal
approval ratings stood at 62 percent.
Foggy Bottom May Not Be As Foggy
Of special note was the introduction of the Quadrennial Diplomacy and
Development Review (QDDR). I know it sounds like a bunch of bureaucratic mumbo
jumbo. But for the Department of State, an organization that's risk
adverse and conservative, with a culture that doesn't reward planning and
discourages change, this kind of coordination and strategizing was monumental.
The notion of a blueprint for highlighting America's civilian power by
coordinating the resources of the nation's civilian agencies and better
partnering with the military in advancing the national interest abroad is
critically important. We can only hope that many of the changes it has ushered
in get institutionalized in the department's policies and practices.
OK, so Hillary didn't negotiate a deal on
Israeli-Palestinian a conflict or preside over a breakthrough on the
Iranian nuclear issue. She did, however, begin the process of adapting the
State Department's structures, processes, and personnel policies to the demands
of 21st-century diplomacy; (e.g. the use of new social media to modernize
U.S. diplomacy) and brought much greater attention to nontraditional or
soft security issues, notably gender integration in U.S. development and
security policies, food security, management of natural resources (e.g. water),
and dealing with youth problems in the Arab world and beyond. That stuff
doesn't get you headlines, but it matters.
Legacy is important, and that includes negative
legacy. Syria is melting down. If the final six months of her tenure
as secretary of state are marked by civil war, with sectarian killings on
a large scale, and America remains on the sidelines, history will judge
her unkindly. It may not be fair or right. (The last thing America needs right
now is owning Syria, which would cost billions of dollars and require thousands
of peacekeepers.) But she will take the hit along with the president. Syria
isn't Rwanda. It's a political uprising, not a genocide. Still, Clinton may someday
regret not acting in the face of violence and atrocities.
Aaron David Miller is a distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson
International Center for Scholars. His new book, Can America Have Another
Great President?, will be published this year. "Reality
Check," his column for Foreign Policy.com,