1. An Unsustainable Status Quo
Unlike a deal with Syria over the Golan Heights, the absence of an accord with the Palestinians has always carried a real cost and urgency. Just compare the numbers of Israelis and Syrians who have died as a result of their conflict to the number of Israelis and Palestinians killed by one another since 1967 in theirs. There's simply no cost-free status quo between Israel and the Palestinians. Proximity, demography, and geography guarantee it. The two peoples are living on top of one another. Benjamin Franklin had it right: Proximity breeds children, but also contempt. Violence, anger, and frustration will only grow as occupier and occupied play out their roles in close quarters. And this means continuing terror, violence, confrontation, and repression.
That doesn't, of course, mean the Israelis and Palestinians are ready for a deal or that the two-state solution will be achieved. But the search will continue interminably -- sometimes seriously, sometimes not -- like the quest for the Holy Grail, Elvis sightings, and the search for signs of life on other planets.
2. The Least-Bad Option
Democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others, Winston Churchill famously observed. And Churchill knew something about Palestine, too. His logic is relevant. In the solution department -- and, trust me on this one, solution departments in capitals all over the world won't stop trying on Palestine -- two states is by far the least objectionable outcome. Not that it's problem- or risk-free. But the other alternatives -- the one state illusion, the Jordan option, Israel's annexation, and the status quo option -- are much worse. Whether it's just as a talking point or an actual initiative, the two-state paradigm is here to stay.
3. Israeli Politics Demands It
Just because Netanyahu may not be all that interested in a serious negotiation leading to an independent Palestinian state doesn't mean that other Israeli politicians aren't. Indeed, in his own government, the prime minister is surrounded by those who have tried to reach an accord (Defense Minister Ehud Barak) or want to (Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz). The recent acquittal of Ehud Olmert, a former prime minister who offered much better terms to Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas in 2007 and 2008 than Barak did at Camp David, in 2000, opens up the possibility of another serious two-stater returning to the Israeli political scene.
But it's not just the politicians. Recent Israeli polls continue to show high levels of support for a two-state solution among the Israeli public. Right now, there's no urgency. Indeed, the national unity government reflects a "we don't want to be bothered with the peace process" mentality and a focus on domestic issues.
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