Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, director of the International Crisis Group's North East Asia Project, argues that China's support is probably not in doubt. In a recent blog post, Kleine-Ahlbrandt acknowledges that "North Korea's economic dependence on China may have reached an all-time high," but she also points out that the dependency in this relationship flows both ways, and that this interdependence gives Kim room to maneuver. "The late Kim Jong Il once said that China should have to pay for its buffer zone," she notes, and "Beijing seems quite willing to do so." This line of thinking suggests that China is unlikely to respond to reforms in North Korea by withholding support and may even welcome the prospect of a less dependent client.
Another important factor: North Korea's war footing. The country has spent decades in an official state of war, a condition that has distorted its political development in ways that continue to dampen prospects for reform. When I asked Korea expert Bruce Cumings what he thought about the possibility of political liberalization in the near future, he noted the importance of heavy investment from China and a more relaxed attitude toward news from the outside world. At the same time, he asserted that "this is fundamentally a garrison state," and "as long as relations with the U.S. and the South are hostile, there won't be any serious reform breakthrough."
Cumings clearly has a point. Yet history constantly reminds us that no dictatorship lasts forever, and it is just possible that the trade-offs inherent in authoritarian rule may finally be tipping North Korea toward change.
Of course, even a significant liberalization would not lead automatically to democracy -- or, for that matter, to state collapse. The "thaw" in the Soviet Union after Stalin's death led to another 40 years of Communist rule, and even the denouement under Gorbachev took several years to unfold.
For a country as closed and brutally repressive as North Korea, however, even modest reforms would mark a significant break with the past. Against this standard, careful consideration of the dilemmas of authoritarian rule suggests there's reason to be more optimistic than we've been for a while.
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