But Romney and his advisers ought to show a little humility. They (and he) haven't turned in an Oscar-winning performance so far, nor one that generates much confidence about how Romney would perform in his counterfactual presidency. What's more, the idea that President Romney could have prevented the current tide of attacks and protests against U.S. diplomatic missions is either excessive narcissism, willful self delusion, or just plain ignorance.
What has been loosed in the Middle East cannot be laid solely at Obama's feet. It is a perfect storm of sorts -- the confluence of profound anti-American sentiment that has built for years under Republican and Democratic administrations alike and has now been catalyzed by the Arab Spring, which has allowed public opinion to play a greater role in how events unfold across the region. Islamists eager to assert themselves against the West are using offenses against Islam to mobilize public opinion, and new governments (some Islamist) are much more hesitant to use force to control their own people and may actually see advantage in playing to the crowds.
To imagine that a Romney presidency -- with its muscular rhetoric and focus on an "America, right or wrong" ethos -- could have preempted these broad forces strains the bounds of credulity. Here's a counterfactual for you: Romney's holier-than-thou attitude could have easily made the situation worse.
That's not to say there aren't legitimate critiques of how Obama has handled the Middle East. Instead of going after the president with a two-by-four, the Romney campaign could have legitimately drilled down with more scalpel-like precision.
Should the administration have been clearer and tougher with Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy when he was elected? Should they have made it unmistakable that he shouldn't confuse U.S. acceptance of his legitimate electoral victory with its staunch opposition to any Egyptian government effort to acquiesce in or promote anti-American views? Was the administration vigilant enough when it came to assessing the threat to its diplomats, particularly in a place like Libya, which has become the Arab Wild West since Qaddafi's fall?
But hindsight is always 20/20, and there's absolutely no indication that Romney -- given his gaffes, exaggerations, and muddled messaging so far -- would have been anymore sure-footed in the face of the momentous changes in the Arab world than Obama has been. Actually, after an initial period of wishful thinking (and acting) Obama seems to have emerged as a pretty competent steward of America's foreign policy.
Listening to Romney's boosters, you'd think that on the two core foreign-policy issues that had intruded on the campaign before the current outbreak of violence -- Israel and the Iranian nuclear issue -- a Romney presidency would have ushered in nothing short of a era of brilliant successes, tough action, and deft diplomacy.
I put these counterfactuals in the illusion category: There's no doubt that had Romney been president over the past four years, the U.S.-Israeli relationship, at a personal level, would have been much improved. (Though the governor's assertion that Obama has thrown Israel "under the bus" is one of the most ridiculous statements I've heard on the subject in a long time.) Romney is more in the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush "we love Israel" category than in the Obama "it's important that we have daylight between us" box.
Much of the improvement, however, would have resulted from Romney not dealing with the peace process or Israeli settlements at all. While I think Obama muffed both of these issues, Romney would probably have ignored them -- hardly a boon for American interests. The governor's latest gaffe, which seems to betray at best a nonchalance about the importance of Middle East peace and at worst a hostility toward Palestinians, won't do much to inspire faith in his competence either.
Finally, as hard as I try, I cannot identify the significant differences between Mitt Romney's Iran policy and Obama's approach. I'm not at all sure the governor can see them either. He seems a bit confused about whether he would urge force to preempt Iran from acquiring a capacity to produce a nuke, or only once it has a weapon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu draws little distinction here -- so perhaps Romney might be more inclined to give Bibi a green light to use force. Though I wonder if Romney were in Obama's shoes now -- 50 days before an election -- whether he too wouldn't be the "not now" president, in large part because of the uncertainties an Israeli attack would introduce.
Like all counterfactuals, this one ends with several questions we can't answer with any certainty. Would Mitt Romney be a better foreign policy president than Barack Obama? And WWMRD in the broken, angry, dysfunctional Middle East in which America is stuck?
I don't really know. But given his track record so far, I'm not in all that big a hurry to find out.
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