Al Qaeda
Obama: KO'd bin Laden with commandos, and has great "reach" with drone strikes, from Waziristan to Yemen, and beyond.
Romney: Effective counter-punching with observations that al Qaeda remains on its feet and fighting on several fronts.
Analysis: Even.
Libya
Obama: Helped promote rebel takedown of Qaddafi with an innovative, cost-effective approach to helping others be the principal agents of their own liberation. But after-the-bout chaos, including the terrorist attack that killed Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans, is a serious blot on the record.
Romney: Missed with a roundhouse punch at consular security policy and White House confusion in Obama-Romney II, but might still connect by depicting the Benghazi debacle as a symptom of a larger American policy failure to follow through post-Qaddafi.
Analysis: Very slight edge to Romney, but exploitable into something bigger if he can jab more effectively at the administration's response to the 9/11/12 attack, and then call into question American inaction in the aftermath of regime change in Libya.
Iraq
Obama: Ducked the possibility of a return bout with residual insurgent forces by removing all U.S. forces, leaving behind slow-simmering societal unrest that is bound to boil over.
Romney: Ever combative, wanted to keep punching, even with reduced U.S. presence.
Analysis: Significant advantage to Romney. There are both practical and ethical reasons for keeping Iraq from going up in flames again. Al Qaeda fighters have returned, make mischief there, and also filter into Syria from Iraq. As to the failure to negotiate an acceptable status-of-forces agreement that would have kept some American troops in country, this too hurts President Obama.
These are not the only foreign policy matters, but they matter most. North Korea is, for now, quiescent, and Pakistan remains a "frenemy." And don't expect much new ground to be broken on foreign trade, as each of the candidates wants it to be "free and fair," even though insisting on both makes neither possible. Also, President Obama may try to land a punch about Romney's description of Russia as our "No. 1 geopolitical foe." This would be a mistake, as Romney can point to Russia's great economic and military resources, and its steadily growing opposition to a range of American policies. Further, Romney could counterpunch by pointing out that Obama's "pivot to the Pacific" will neglect the current arc of conflict in the Middle East and alienate China, a major trading partner.
To summarize the strategic "tale of the tape," each candidate holds the edge in different issue areas, and their divergent views, while often subtle, still reflect considerable sharpness. Governor Romney is likely to do much better than expected of someone with so little foreign policy experience. Obama-Romney III has the potential to be a crackling debate from the outset to the finish.
The betting line: Even.
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