AM: Is Iran, in your judgment, a rational actor?
EH: I think that yes, the Iranians are rational. I think at this particular point in time they are focused on trying to inflict major damage on Israel. Maybe they believe that they do have it in their power to remove Israel from the face of the Earth. And I think that if they really believe that they could do it and they have the means to do it, one has to assume that they might actually use these means. I don't believe that once they have the means, they will not use it.
AM: I know you're an analyst and not a fortune-teller. But will 2013 in your judgment be a determinative point in this process? Will the issue of the Iranian nuclear weapons program either be joined in war and/or diplomacy, or might we find ourselves at the end of 2013 where we are now?
EH: I think 2013 is a decisive point in history, a point in time. I think that there is time now to energetically engage in efforts to find a solution other than a military one. I think that there's much that can be done and should be done. And I think, of course, that if all other options are exhausted and have been unsuccessful, then yes, 2013 may be the time when Israel and/or the United States takes action.
AM: Why don't we have a conflict-ending agreement between Israelis and Palestinians?
EH: I can give a long dissertation as to why we don't have one, but I'd like to focus on the immediate reasons. And I'd say that at this particular point in time, there is not a viable possibility [for an agreement]. It's not viable because the Palestinians don't have their act together. They're divided both geographically and politically. I think anybody who signed such an agreement would not have a real mandate to sign it. And even if he believes he has, he will not have the capability to implement it, certainly not in the Gaza Strip.
And therefore, an agreement of such a nature will be misleading. It will create the notion that an agreement has been reached and a serious historical event is at hand when in actual fact it's going to be something much worse than just a non-event. It will be an act of hypocrisy of the worst particular kind.
I also think that the present makeup of the Israeli political scene is such that there is no majority in place -- either in government or in the nation -- for reaching an agreement with the Palestinians. People enjoy life the way it is and they say "why take the risks, why move to something which is going to be very painful and which is going to have lot of repercussions internally?" There are very, very bitter memories of what happened during the Gaza disengagement, and that was only 10,000 people [who had to be relocated].
AM: And what are the consequences of no agreement? Do you agree with those who argue that demography and the absence of a solution will undermine the Jewish and democratic character of the state of Israel?
EH: Yes I do. And I'm very concerned about that, because I think that the no solution means that there's going to be a one state between the Mediterranean and the Jordan Valley in which you'll have two distinct populations. One will be a majority that is gradually decreasing, and the other will be a minority which increasing. And therefore we will have a situation where, between Jordan and the sea, there will be a democratic system for the minority and a non-democratic system for the majority. This is unsustainable and untenable.
AM: Are you concerned about the viability of Egyptian-Israeli and Jordanian -Israeli relationships in the face of the political changes sweeping the Arab world?
EH: I think so far the reaction from Egypt has been encouraging. This is not say that I'm happy with many of these statements coming from Cairo, but the most important are repeated statements by the Egyptian president and his representatives and advisors to the public that Egypt will abide by its international obligations.
I think the Egyptians are trying to get their act together. I think they're behaving responsibly. I don't think that they are enamored with Israel -- they don't have to be. And I think that there's room for improvement here.
SUBJECTS:
