1. Anti-Americanism: We shouldn't kid ourselves -- there is an enormous reservoir of anti-American sentiment in the Arab world, and it has been brewing for years. The vast majority of Arabs may like America and Americans, but the fact is they don't like our policies. What's more, a disturbingly large minority of conservative, militant Muslims don't like anything about us either - particularly our culture's openness, tolerance, permissiveness and high bar on protected speech.
The sources of Arab anger toward America run deep. We are perceived among many as modern day colonialists throwing our weight around, not taking Arab and Muslim sensitivities seriously, supporting Israel, invading Iraq and Afghanistan, methodically whacking Muslims with Predator drones, bucking up Arab oil sheikhs, interceding in the Arab world when it suits our interests (see Libya) and allowing the Arabs to fend for themselves when it doesn't (see Syria).
This anger and sense of humiliation has been loosed, not constrained, by the so-called Arab Spring. Public opinion is now freer to shape the political climate in the region, and new governments are less able or willing to control or repress it. Since American policies are not likely to change quickly or easily, we're in for a long, turbulent ride.
2. Islamists: Let's be clear: The "Arab Spring" is really an Islamist Spring. That doesn't mean that militant Muslims are taking over the world -- the Islamists are divided and constrained by their newfound responsibilities of governance, and in Egypt's case dependence on the West for economic support. But what it does mean is that when fair and free elections are held in the Middle East - take Iraq, Egypt, Tunisia, Palestine, and Lebanon as examples -- Islamist parties do very well. They out organize, out mobilize and outsmart their secular, liberal counterparts.
And even where they don't fare well, such as in Libya, minority groups representing radical Islamist elements can have an impact far out of proportion to their actual support among the general public. It's the nature of the human enterprise -- determined minorities act, majorities acquiesce. The thousands-strong demonstration of Libyans protesting out-of-control militias in the wake of the killing of U.S. Ambassador to Libya Chris Stevens is a hopeful sign, but it has done almost nothing to change the balance of power between what passes for central authority and armed groups.
And let's not forget the fact that the Islamists are operating in deeply traditional and religious societies. As a result, they have an edge over liberals and other secular reformers who occupy only narrow cultural and political space. This was dramatically reflected in the entire Tahrir Square narrative of 2011, where the Western media wrongly believed that young revolutionaries committed to freedoms that would have made Thomas Jefferson blush were taking over the country. I think it's fair to say that they (and we?) jumped too soon on a bandwagon that has now broken down
With the rise of the Islamists comes a much lower bar for what constitutes an offense, particularly if generated by the West against Islam. In this sense the vile anti-Islamic video Innocence of Muslims wasn't simply a pretext for arousing grievances, but reflected the consequences of a clash between Western values and those of Islamists, whose sensibilities have proven impossible to accommodate with our notions of free speech.
Fouad Ajami is right: Modernity requires the willingness to be offended -- and with the digital revolution, to be offended on a global scale. In 1981, a Turkish Muslim tried to kill John Paul II -- in Vatican Square no less. How many Muslims were killed or embassies attacked by angry Christians looking for revenge? And yet we have a series of events on the opposite side of the ledger -- the fatwa against Salman Rushdie for the publication of The Satanic Verses, the murder of Dutch filmmaker Theo Van Geogh by an angry Moroccan Dutchman, and the murder, threats, and intimidation that followed the publication of Danish caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed.
Admittedly, America has a unique and very high bar for protected speech. However, the standard for freedom of conscience and expression in many parts of the Muslim world is also very low, and not likely to change anytime soon. I can walk into Times Square and say just about anything I want without fear of arrest or death, as long as I don't disrupt the public order. It is a cruel irony that in Cairo's Tahrir Square, the place that embodied so much hope and promise of freedom, there's no freedom of conscience. Should anyone offend the prophet there, the consequences might be fatal.
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