3. Weak and Enabling Governments: Finally, the third element in this storm is the behavior of new governments, which are either unwilling or unable to manage this new angry Islamic populism. In Benghazi, the Arab world's new Dodge City -- a city with far too many guns, grudges and grievances -- the Libyan government simply seems incapable of establishing order.
In Egypt, President Mohamed Morsi's government initially seemed to be taking a page from its authoritarian predecessor - control the riots when it suits you and don't control them when you want to make a point or are under pressure from others to do so. While Syrian President Bashar al-Assad allowed crowds to torch the Danish Embassy in Damascus following a Danish newspaper's publication of the caricatures of the prophet, Hosni Mubarak would never have permitted anyone to violate the U.S. Embassy, occupy its grounds for hours, and raise Islam's black flag over its gate.
This isn't a plea to have the authoritarians back. What it reveals, however, is that Morsi's response to the anti-Islam film reflected a different agenda than his predecessor. He's much more sensitive to Islamist sensibilities and also under pressure from hardline Salafist movements.
The power and fury of last month's attacks against U.S. diplomatic facilities in the Middle East and beyond has abated. There's a reason for that: Governments that have some measure of control over their streets, particularly in Egypt, need things from America and can't afford to allow lawlessness and disorder to prevail without compelling cause.
But the factors that produced the attacks are here to stay. U.S. policies that enrage, aggrieve and humiliate Arabs and Muslims who are only too ready to be enraged, aggrieved, and humiliated are unlikely to change; the capacity of groups and governments to exploit them may only grow stronger; and the uncertain transition to more inclusive democratic systems ensure that an angry Islamic populism won't be defused anytime soon.
So, should we give up on the Arab Spring and stop trying to encourage the possibilities for positive change? Absolutely not. But should we give up our illusions -- particularly the notion that we can significantly influence the Arabs' political future or that we're in for anything other than a wild ride in a stormy, turbulent, and churning Arab world? Yes.
And most of all, we should hope that the Roman historian Tacitus was wrong when he wrote, "The fairest day after a bad emperor is the first."
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