The List

Obama's Likeliest Flip-Flops

If the president wins again on Nov. 6, he might fire up an Etch-a-Sketch of his own.

Back in April, we looked at the campaign pledges that Mitt Romney would likely have to renege on to be an effective president. But whoever wins on Nov. 6, expect a few more shakes of the Etch-a-Sketch. Here are five issues Obama might want to reverse course on.

AFGHANISTAN

Obama's campaign promises to "transition security responsibility to the Afghan people, and is on track to responsibly end the war there in 2014." Vice President Joe Biden was even more explicit in his debate with Paul Ryan, saying, "We are leaving in 2014, period." Of course, it all depends on what your definitions of the words "end" and "leaving" are.

The State Department says it is conducting negotiations with the Afghan government to extend the U.S. troop presence in the country past 2014 in order to conduct counterterrorism operations and continue training Afghan forces. The Strategic Partnership Agreement signed by Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai in May promises an ongoing U.S. commitment to Afghanistan's security until 2024 but doesn't specify troop levels. Some military officials say as many as 25,000 U.S. troops could remain in Afghanistan after 2014.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

KEYSTONE XL

For all the attention it's gotten on the campaign trail, Obama's decision to reject the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline, which would transport oil from the controversial tar sands of Alberta, Canada, was really more of a delay. Though environmentalists cautiously applauded the decision at the time, Obama's objection to the project was actually rooted in the 60-day-deadline Congress had insisted on for approval of the project rather than environmental concerns over what climate scientist James Hansen calls "essentially game over" for the planet.

"I'm disappointed that Republicans in Congress forced this decision, but it does not change my administration's commitment to American-made energy that creates jobs and reduces our dependence on oil," Obama said at the time. In March, Obama approved construction of the southern portion of the pipeline, and the original decision gives him plenty of wiggle room to revisit the Canadian pipeline after the election, when he's not worried about disaffected environmentalists staying home.

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

SYRIA

Obama has ruled out imposing a no-fly zone or providing weapons to rebels in Syria unless it appears that Bashar al-Assad's of mass destruction may fall into the wrong hands. But circumstances on the ground may push the administration to take on a greater role. Earlier this month, it was reported that 150 U.S. troops had been deployed to Jordan to help prepare for a flood of Syrian refugees and work on contingency plans if the Syrian government loses control of its chemical weapons.

Officials have also discussed the possibility of the U.S. supporting Jordanian troops in setting up a buffer zones between the two countries -- though the form this support would take is still unclear. The United States is also taking on a greater political role in the Syrian opposition, helping to set up a new leadership body to unite the major rebel factions. There's also the possibility that NATO member Turkey might invoke Article 5 -- which commits members to defense of their fellow states -- in response to further provocations from Syria.

Obama would likely wish to avoid another military entanglement in the Middle East, but it's quite possible he will no longer have that option if the situation continues to deteriorate.

John Cantlie/AFP/Getty Images

THE RESET

Launched with high hopes -- if poor spelling -- in early 2009, the vaunted "reset" in relations with Russia has seen better days. Senior U.S. officials maintain that the initiative has been successful in getting Russian cooperation on a variety of issues including nuclear weapons, Iran, and supply routes into Afghanistan. But in recent days, Russia has kicked out USAID, withdrawn from a 20-year pact to secure loose nuclear material, and been accused of continuing to supply weapons to the Syrian government. Russia has likely gone as far as it is willing to on Iran sanctions and the reduced -- if not eliminated -- U.S. presence in Afghanistan will make the Northern Distribution Network less of a factor. (No wonder President Vladimir Putin wants NATO forces to stay.) The Kremlin is also now crowing over what it sees as the vindication of its opposition to the international intervention in Libya. The United States has also been showing a bit more willingness lately to criticize the Kremlin on human rights grounds.

After friendly first-term relations best remembered for George W. Bush's claim to have seen into Putin's soul, things were much frostier in the second term. With Putin now back in power, having supplanted interregnum leader Dmitry Medvedev, Obama may have his own change of heart.

Pete Souza/The White House via Getty Images

GITMO

Can you flip-flop on the same issue twice? Obama's failure to follow through on the executive order he signed in January 2009 closing the detention center at Guantánamo Bay was one of the biggest disappointments for his liberal supporters. In his second term, he's likely to disappoint them all over again.

"I still want to close Guantánamo. We haven't been able to get that through Congress," Obama told the Daily Show's Jon Stewart in October. Yes, the GOP-controlled House has been an obstacle in closing the facility, but little about Obama's record in office indicates that it's been a major priority. Obama has ordered the resumption of military commissions at Gitmo and signed a Defense Authorization Act allowing the military to indefinitely detain terrorist suspects, including U.S. citizens, without trial.

Assuming the Democrats don't win back both houses of Congress, it seems unlikely that Obama will spend political capital on this.

JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images

The List

Blue Planet

What if the world could vote in the U.S. election?

Sure, polling may suggest that the world isn't following the 2012 U.S. election as closely as it did the 2008 presidential race, when a wildly popular Barack Obama embarked on his quest to replace the deeply unpopular George W. Bush. Heck, 40 percent of Russians in one survey this month didn't even know the U.S. election was taking place this year.

But that doesn't mean people overseas don't care about the campaign's outcome. In a recent UPI/C-Voter/WIN-Gallup International poll, which surveyed more than 26,000 men and women in 32 countries, 62 percent of respondents said that the U.S. president has a high or very high impact on their lives, and 42 percent felt they should have the right to vote in this year's contest for that very reason. When you call yourself the leader of the free world, you'd better believe the world is going to take an interest in who you are.

So what would the election look like if the world really could vote? The short answer: nothing like the razor-thin race unfolding at home. Obama is preferred over Mitt Romney in 31 out of 32 countries in the UPI poll and 20 out of 21 countries in another BBC World Service/GlobeScan/PIPA survey. Fifty-one percent of respondents in the UPI poll said they would cast a ballot for Obama, with more people saying they wouldn't vote for either candidate (18 percent) than would vote for the Republican nominee (12 percent). In the BBC survey, 50 percent of respondents chose Obama and only 9 percent selected Romney.

When translated into headlines, these results can paint the misleading picture that the world is crazy about Obama and dismissive of Romney. But a look at all the polling that has been conducted abroad in recent months suggests that the reality is far more nuanced. You have the French supporting the U.S. president in droves while the Pakistanis spurn both candidates, with most countries falling somewhere in between. If we were handicapping the election using the lingua franca of American politics, here's how we might break down the global electorate.

RED STATES

There is really only one red (foreign) state in this election, and it's Israel. In a poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute and Tel Aviv University last week, 52 percent of Israelis said a Romney win would be preferable for Israeli interests, compared with 25 percent who said the same about Obama. The divide was starker among Jewish Israelis, who backed Romney by a 57-22 margin, with support for the GOP candidate strongest among right-wingers. A plurality of Arab Israelis, by contrast, favored Obama (45 percent) over Romney (15 percent). Earlier this fall, a YouGov-Cambridge survey found that 0 percent of Palestinian respondents felt that Romney's election would make them more favorable to the United States (nearly 50 percent said it would have no impact on their feelings toward America).

During the campaign, Romney has taken an aggressive stance on Iran's nuclear program, repeatedly emphasized the importance of U.S.-Israeli relations (he visited Jerusalem over the summer), and expressed skepticism about the Palestinians' commitment to peace. Benjamin Netanyahu hasn't expressed a preference for Obama or Romney during his effort to get the United States to commit to clear "red lines" for Iran's nuclear program, but the Israeli press has speculated that the prime minister's meddling in the race could invite U.S. payback if Obama is reelected.

BLUE STATES

The world over, the American president may have no stauncher friend than France. In poll after poll after poll after poll, the French top the list of Obama backers, with support ranging from the low 70s to the low 90s, depending on the survey. France's Socialist President François Hollande appears to be one of those boosters, though he also recognizes that France's love could go unrequited during a campaign in which Romney has accused Obama of endeavoring to turn the United States into a "European-style welfare state." Hollande recently joked that he should endorse Romney just to sink the candidate's chances.

Many Western and Northern European nations -- including Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Sweden, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom -- are similarly enthusiastic, though the UPI poll suggests that countries such as Finland and Ireland are less passionate about Obama than, say, Germany. A couple Southern and Eastern European countries -- namely Italy and the Czech Republic -- belong in this category as well.

Elsewhere in the world, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, and Panama are staunchly in the Obama camp, with support hovering around the 60s. Obama is polling in the 50s and 60s in Asia-Pacific countries such as Australia, Indonesia (where Obama lived as a young boy), and South Korea, and in the 60s and 70s in African countries like Cameroon and Nigeria. BBC polling suggests that support for Obama has actually surged in Brazil, Indonesia, and Panama (Obama's so popular in Brazil, in fact, that at least 16 candidates recently used the president's name to attract votes during municipal elections).

Anywhere from 50 to 90 percent of respondents in the countries above want Obama to be reelected -- enough of a groundswell to put these nations safely in the incumbent's column.

LIGHT BLUE STATES

This category overlaps with others on the list, but the countries involved constitute something of a special case: All have grown markedly disillusioned with Obama over the past four years. Think of these countries as the young people staring up at faded Obama posters that Romney running mate Paul Ryan mentioned in his convention speech.

Support for Obama in Kenya, once the home of the president's late father, has declined from a staggering 87 percent in 2008 to 66 percent today, according to the BBC, while support for Obama's Republican challenger has risen from 5 percent to 18 percent during the same period (it's worth noting that UPI still has Obama polling at 83 percent in Kenya). "Compared to other past U.S. presidents and in particular President Bush, who had very low approval levels when he left office, the Obama administration has not in any way improved relations with Africa or has had any specific economic  and social policy favoring Africans," Kenyan lawyer Dann Mwangi recently noted in The Standard (though apparently Obamamania is still alive and well in Obama's father's village).

The same poll shows support for Obama falling from 54 percent to 43 percent in Mexico, 35 percent to 28 percent in China, and 38 percent to 34 percent in Poland. A Pew Research Center survey this past spring backed up this finding, showing confidence in Obama's leadership plummeting 24 points in China since 2009 and 13 and 12 points in Mexico and Poland, respectively.

The Pew poll also showed that confidence in the president has fallen by 11 points in Japan and Spain, which perhaps explains why polling for these two countries is all over the place. Surveys that pit Obama against Romney have shown the president polling anywhere from 45 percent to 77 percent among Spaniards (polling in Portugal produces similar swings). BBC and UPI polls show Obama polling in the 30s in Japan, but 66 percent of Japanese respondents in the Pew poll said Obama should be reelected (Romney may not have improved his standing in Spain by using the country as a cautionary tale about fiscal irresponsibility during the first debate).

Romney, who's polling at 16 percent in Poland, has improved slightly on John McCain's popularity in the country in 2008 (Romney visited Warsaw during his overseas trip this summer and has accused the Obama administration of abandoning its Polish ally to appease Russia). But in China, the only country in Pew's survey that is following the 2012 election more closely than the 2008 race, Romney has not capitalized on Obama's declining support. Instead, Chinese news outlets and officials have repeatedly condemned "China-bashing" by both candidates. It's telling that while Obama is beating Romney 38-16 among Chinese participants in UPI's poll and 28-9 in the BBC's poll, half or more of the respondents in the surveys didn't express support for either candidate.

SWING STATES

In the global context, it's helpful to think of swing states not as those that could break for either Obama or Romney but rather as countries where support for the candidates is tepid and where roughly half or more of the population wouldn't vote for either of the presidential aspirants. You could say these silent majorities are undecided, but the president and his Republican challenger are unlikely to win them over any time soon.

Light Blue countries like China, Mexico, and Poland might also fit into this category. But so would several other nations where Obama is polling anywhere from the 20s to the 40s and Romney is stuck in the single digits or low teens. These include Ecuador and Peru in Latin America; Hong Kong, India, and Malaysia in Asia; Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and Turkey in the Middle East; and Bulgaria, Georgia, Macedonia, Romania, and Slovakia in Eastern Europe.

Greece, which is currently at the center of the European debt crisis, might fall into this camp as well, since only 45 percent of Greek respondents told Pew that Obama should be reelected. In the same survey, only 18 percent of respondents from Egypt said Obama should be reelected and just 29 percent expressed confidence in Obama's leadership, a 13-point drop from 2009 (we don't know much about opinion in other Middle Eastern flashpoints such as Libya and Syria, but more than half of YouGov/Cambridge respondents in both countries said Romney's election would have no impact on their feelings toward the United States). As one professor in Cairo told Reuters, Obama "didn't deliver" but "he is much better than Romney."

In Russia, meanwhile, Obama is beating Romney by a margin of 27-12, according to the German Marshall Fund's Transatlantic Trends survey (a poll this week by Russia's Levada Center has Obama up 41 to 8). Russian President Vladimir Putin, for his part, has dismissed Romney's characterization of Russia as America's top geopolitical foe and described Obama as a "very honest man."

THIRD-PARTY STRONGHOLDS

For its consistent and overwhelming opposition toward both major-party U.S. presidential candidates -- hostility that has only been inflamed by drone strikes and the Osama bin Laden raid -- Pakistan deserves a category of its own. A surprising result of the BBC's global opinion poll was that more Pakistanis supported Romney (14 percent) than Obama (11 percent). But the larger story is that the vast majority of Pakistanis didn't choose either candidate. UPI's survey arrived at a similar result, with 13 percent of Pakistani respondents backing Obama, 9 percent supporting Romney, and nearly 50 percent saying they didn't approve of either candidate or that there was no difference between them. This phenomenon isn't new in Pakistan, either. Seven percent of Pakistanis expressed confidence in Obama's leadership in Pew's 2012 survey, compared with 13 percent in 2009.

With headlines like "Poor choice for Americans" and "The US elections mean nothing for Pakistan," it's clear the Pakistani press agrees with public opinion. "The American President irrespective of party colours will do what they or the State Department, Pentagon or the CIA thinks is best for their country," Tughral Yamin recently observed in Pakistan's The News International. "We should concentrate on rebuilding our country in a manner that it is taken seriously by all incumbents of the White House in the times to come."

What are the broader lessons we can learn from all these statistics? According to UPI data, countries that enthusiastically support Obama tend to cite the candidates' competence, personality, and personal background as the main factors influencing their (theoretical) vote, while countries that are particularly down on the president or supportive of Romney tend to mention the candidates' policies toward their nations. More broadly, it appears that, with some exceptions, Israel is Romney country and Northern and Western Europe is Obama country, with a skeptical rest of the world in the middle. As for Pakistan? Perhaps they'll flock to Ron Paul.