Other emerging political realities also point to a pressing need to recalibrate U.S. policy. The ground underneath our effort with South Korea is about to shift; Seoul will elect a new president in December, and it's clear from the candidates' public statements and campaign positions that whoever wins will press for reinvigorated diplomatic efforts to engage Pyongyang.
Second, "leading from behind" may be the right approach in dealing with other crises, but in the case of North Korea, it has backfired. Left to their own devices, China, Russia, and Japan as well as other key players in this drama will pursue their own political and economic interests, paying little attention to our top priority --- dealing with the North's growing WMD effort. Even our European allies seem to have little interest in dealing with this problem. Witness the announcement last week that Kempinski, a well-known German hotel operator, will take over renovation of the 105-story Ryugyong Hotel, which dominates the Pyongyang skyline but has been uninhabitable for almost three decades. The hotel is slated to open next year. All these countries remain interested in arresting Pyongyang's nuclear development, but only active U.S. diplomacy can provide the glue to hold that effort together. In short, unless the United States recalibrates its policy, not only will it be diplomatically isolated but it will also enable the North to achieve its own fantasy of becoming a small, intimidating nuclear power that is tacitly accepted by other countries.
Recalibrating U.S. policy will require a new diplomatic offensive -- ideally, worked out with the new South Korean government. That may prove difficult, however. After three years of following the lead of a conservative South Korean government that had little real interest in diplomacy with the North, a second-term Obama administration may find it hard, although not impossible, to switch gears. As for a Romney administration, the odds are that it would be even less interested in diplomacy and more inclined to put the squeeze on Pyongyang since its ranks will be peppered with hard-liners like John Bolton.
Nevertheless, if Washington and Seoul can get on the same policy page, one new approach that should be seriously considered would be to immediately seek to begin a "peace process" on the peninsula, replacing the temporary armistice that ended the Korean War and is still in place with more permanent peace arrangements. That process would move forward hand-in-hand with steps by Pyongyang to arrest and reverse its WMD program development. If it works, and there is certainly no guarantee that it will, such an approach could dampen tensions by addressing core issues of war and peace while gradually building better relations between the North, the United States, and South Korea. Moreover, such an initiative, which appears to have the support of Democratic and Republican experts in Washington and key segments of the foreign-policy elite in Seoul, would also be welcomed by China, which is nervous about current tensions on the peninsula.
But unless it acts quickly, Washington may not get a chance to shift gears even if it wants to do so. History has shown that Pyongyang may not wait for a presidential transition to be completed. In 2009, North Korea tested a long-range missile and a nuclear weapon within months of President Obama taking office. The North has already taken a step in the wrong direction. At our recent meeting with North Korean officials, they stated that Pyongyang will no longer adhere to a key provision of the September 2005 Six Party Talks agreement that is the touchstone for future negotiations. Rather than insisting on "simultaneous actions" by both sides, the North now wants the United States to take unilateral actions first to demonstrate its sincerity.
It is unclear how the results of the upcoming presidential elections here and in South Korea will factor into Pyongyang's calculations. But if North Korea decides to up the ante, it could, for example, announce that it will no longer honor its pledge in the 2005 agreement to denuclearize. Most experts believe achieving that objective has become more difficult with each advance in the North's WMD program, but such a step would have a dramatic public impact. North Korean officials have also hinted in recent meetings that Pyongyang is considering a pronouncement that it is now capable of mounting nuclear warheads on missiles, passing another milestone in its ability to deliver nuclear weapons and presenting, in the words of one South Korean official, an "existential threat" to Seoul. Although it remains unclear whether the North Koreans can mate warheads to missiles, the political impact of such an announcement should not be underestimated. Finally, Pyongyang could conduct new missile and nuclear tests this spring, spurred on by the recent U.S.-South Korea agreement allowing Seoul to develop long-range ballistic missiles that can cover all of North Korea.
Maybe the North will patiently watch and wait. Past experience, however, tells us that it would be a mistake to base U.S. policy on such hopes and the goodwill of Pyongyang. Washington and Seoul may be able to head Kim Jong Un off at the pass if they can pivot quickly and signal a new diplomatic approach. Without quick action, however, it may prove too late, condemning the United States, its allies, and the international community to meekly stand by and watch the birth of another nuclear power.
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