President Barack Obama's administration is reportedly planning to designate the Syrian jihadist group Jabhat al-Nusra ("the Support Front") as a terrorist organization. The group, which was first announced in late January 2012, has become a growing part of the armed opposition due to its fighting prowess -- perhaps no surprise, as many of its fighters honed their skills in battlefields in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen. As a result, Jabhat al-Nusra has carved out an important niche in the fight to oust the Syrian regime even as it remains outside of the mainstream opposition.
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The U.S. administration, in designating Jabhat al-Nusra, is
likely to argue that the group is an outgrowth of the Islamic State of Iraq
(ISI). While there is not much open-source evidence of this, classified material
may offer proof -- and there is certainly circumstantial evidence that Jabhat
al-Nusra operates as a branch of the ISI.
There's no denying that Jabhat al-Nusra is deadly: It has claimed
responsibility for more than 500 attacks since its creation, including a series
of suicide bombings. Unique among rebel groups operating in Syria, it has also
earned the legitimacy of top global jihadist ideologues, who have called for
grassroots supporters across the world to help fund or join up with the group. And
foreign fighters have answered the call: Based on data from al Qaeda's online
forums, of the 46 individuals for which the forums have provided "martyrdom"
notices and announced their group affiliation, 20 fought with Jabhat al-Nusra. Since
Oct. 1, almost all of the notices that mention affiliation have reported that the fighter was aligned with
Jabhat al-Nusra.
Jabhat al-Nusra is also plugged into al Qaeda's transnational online media echo
system. Its official media outlet, al-Manara
al-Bayda ("the White Minaret"), maintains ties with al Qaeda's web forums Shamukh al-Islam and al-Fida' al-Islam. On Shamukh, there is
even a dedicated section for Jabhat al-Nusra's releases -- a status only shared
with the ISI.
The Obama administration may try to nip the rise of Jabhat al-Nusra in the bud
by issuing a terrorist designation now, prior to an attack on U.S. interests or
its homeland. This would represent a break from past behavior, when jihadist
organizations such as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) were only designated following the large-scale
-- though both failed -- 2009 Christmas
Day and 2010 Time
Square plots, respectively.
The unique circumstances in Syria might be the reason for the differing approach.
Syrians have been demonstrating and fighting for more than 21 months to shed
the President Bashar al-Assad's yoke of tyranny. The rebellion has been radicalized over
time by the brutal tactics of the regime, creating a more Islamist fighting
force than when the armed rebellion first started gaining steam.
Getting Syria's rebels to disavow Jabhat al-Nusra may not be an easy task,
however. As in Iraq, jihadists have been some of the most effective and
audacious fighters against the Assad regime, garnering respect from other rebel groups in the process. Jabhat
al-Nusra seems to have learned from the mistakes of al Qaeda in Iraq: It has
not attacked civilians randomly, nor has it shown wanton disregard for human
life by publicizing videos showing the beheading of its enemies. Even if its views are extreme, it is getting the benefit of the doubt from other
insurgents due to its prowess on the battlefield.
So can the Obama administration isolate Jabhat al-Nusra? While some in the
Syrian opposition would welcome a U.S. decision to slap a terrorist designation
on the group, many will likely view this as another case of the U.S. government
actually acting in support of Assad -- demonizing an element of the insurgency
while simultaneously offering little assistance itself to topple the regime.
As a result, designating Jabhat al-Nusra could backfire on
the United States. In the short term, it might galvanize more support for the
group as Syrian rebels look to spite the Obama administration for its lack of
support. A terror designation could also provide even more legitimacy for
the organization amongst global jihadi supporters, leading even more foreigners
to join up with its cause.
In the long run, however, marginalizing Jabhat al-Nusra and its ideology is a
fight that the United States -- and ordinary Syrians everywhere -- must win. Once
the Assad regime falls, the rebels' shared military goals will disappear, and
it will be the job of the Obama administration and mainstream rebel groups to isolate extremist groups. The outcome of this future fight is inextricably
related to the Obama administration's efforts to help the rebels now. But without
a swift end to the Assad regime and more engagement with the opposition, the
United States won't have much leverage to shape Syria's future -- no matter
what it decides to call Jabhat al-Nusra.
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