Over the Horizon

Five unlikely but extremely destabilizing global crises that Obama must prepare for now.

BY MARTIN INDYK | JANUARY 18, 2013

Camp David Collapse

Since the collapse of Hosni Mubarak's regime in Egypt, the United States has been resolutely focused on maintaining the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, which serves as a cornerstone of stability for the region, an anchor for U.S. influence in the Middle East, and a building block for efforts at Arab-Israeli coexistence. Happily, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy has signaled his willingness to set aside the Muslim Brotherhood's ideological opposition and most Egyptians' hostility to Israel. Several factors, however, could still destabilize the situation, including terrorist attacks in Sinai or from Gaza, the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, and populist demands to break relations with Israel. 

If Morsy were to ditch this peace treaty, it would represent a profound strategic defeat for the United States in the Middle East and could threaten a regional war. The United States should continue its policy of conditional engagement with Morsy's government and, in particular, deepen its security cooperation and coordination. It should also develop a new modus vivendi with Egyptian and Israeli partners through cooperation over common concerns in Sinai and Gaza that would advance the sustainability of the peace treaty.

KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/Getty Images

 

Martin Indyk is vice president and director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. This article is adapted from "Big Bets and Black Swans: A Presidential Briefing Book," written in collaboration with the Foreign Policy Program scholars at Brookings.

View an infographic video outlining the Big Bets and Black Swans project here.