Come what may, domestically the party may yet be able to trudge along in slow decline for a period -- perhaps eventually splitting into several independent parties that sporadically cooperate (much like the Venezuelan opposition does now). Yet without Chávez, the international side of the revolution -- on which he has staked much of his legacy -- cannot last.
Lacking his charisma, his connections, and his personal rapport with the people, his successors will have no choice but to prioritize the Perónist side of the equation by playing to their domestic base or else risk losing everything. Henrique Capriles, who lost the 2012 election to Chávez after a strong showing, could yet prove competitive if new elections are called following the president's death as stipulated by the constitution. Indeed, in the past, Capriles has polled much better than either Maduro or Cabello.
As it is, chavismo would seem an unlikely candidate for a Perónist-style political revival. Because it was so brief, Perón's final term after his return from exile left much unfulfilled promise and relatively little track record for posterity to scrutinize. Not so the Bolivarian Revolution. By stressing a deep, personal connection between the president and the voters rather than a coherent set of party policies, chavismo has straddled an ever-widening gulf between oratory and practice. Though drawing heavily on socialist imagery and rhetoric, Chávez has actually presided over growing inequality, and Venezuelan society remains highly entrepreneurial, individualistic, and consumerist.
As for Chávez himself, he will remain an iconic figure internationally but a largely symbolic one, another heroic martyr in the vein of Guevara or Chile's Salvador Allende. Perhaps his stature might someday even rise to Bolivarian proportions: A universally hailed cultish folk hero like his idol, whose actual policies few remember, but who is claimed as their own by movements of every ideological stripe.
Failing global revolution, I suspect Chávez would be okay with that.
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