2. There's no peace process to fight over
As long as there's no real peace process that creates a real choice for most Israelis, Netanyahu will continue to have a key role. Sure, Lapid, a potential partner for Netanyahu's coalition, espouses two states. But like his famous father, Shinui party stalwart Tommy Lapid, he's tough on peace issues such as dividing Jerusalem or the right of return for Palestinian refugees.
And in case you hadn't noticed, there is no peace process at the moment, a fact that neither Lapid nor the many other centrists emphasized in their campaigns. While Israelis are focused on domestic issues, the peace process has gone missing either because the security situation is too good (no suicide terror, Iron Dome.) or because the regional situation is too bad (a divided Palestinian leadership, an anti-Semitic Morsy, etc.)
Most likely, the kind of peace process that will emerge over the next year is one that Netanyahu can support -- a bottom-up approach with little focus on the identity issues such as Jerusalem and refugees, and maybe quiet discussions between Israelis and Palestinians on territory and security around which the prime minister can maneuver. But don't get your hopes up.
3. John Kerry needs a friend
We are going to have a new secretary of state who will have responsibility -- assuming he can convince the president to let him handle the issue -- for dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian problem. And the last thing Kerry wants is a worsening of ties between Netanyahu and Barack Obama that makes it impossible for him to do his job on such a key issue.
If Kerry wants to have a chance of succeeding -- even to manage the problem -- he'll need a relationship with Netanyahu based on some measure of confidence and trust. This is even more important given the absence of such trust between Obama and the prime minister.
George H.W. Bush and Yitzhak Shamir didn't get along. James Baker, Bush's hard-nosed secretary of state, managed to hammer out a working relationship with then Prime Minister Shamir -- tense at times but functional. Without it, there would have been no Madrid peace talks -- and without that, the Oslo talks would have been harder to produce. If Kerry is smart, he'll keep the door open to Netanyahu and try to hammer out at least a modus vivendi. Bibi, meanwhile, is going to try to build on his already positive relationship with Kerry.
4. American enablers
I'm also betting that the Obama team, bogged down as it is with so many other issues, won't get terribly creative on the peace process and will play to Netanyahu's strengths -- an interim, incremental, and bottom-up process that avoids the tough issues and steers clear of high-profile initiatives. Rather than try to undermine Netanyahu, a second-term president (even one with visions of being the father of Palestinian statehood) will likely play it safe and try to work with the new government. And who could blame him? Even if Obama decides to roll the dice, he needs an Arab or Palestinian partner to help him. And those are in very short supply.
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