AMERICA'S NO. 1 GEOPOLITICAL FOE IS…

Iran. —Graham Allison, David Barno, Gian Gentile, Seth G. Jones, Peter Mansoor, Barry Pavel, Dov Zakheim • China. —Douglas Birkey, Kenneth Gause, Paul Kapur, Thomas Keaney, Edward Luttwak, Thomas Mahnken, Merrill McPeak, Paul Pillar, Danielle Pletka, Christopher Twomey • China's air, naval, and missile buildup presents the largest and most consequential military challenge since the U.S. and Europe faced the Soviet Army during the Cold War. —Robert Haddick • Pakistan. —Thomas H. Johnson • North Korea. —Tad Oelstrom • Leadership vacuum in the Middle East. —Jeffrey Dressler • Weakening of central authority and the rise of ungoverned spaces in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. —Richard Kohn • Authoritarianism. —Frederic Wehrey • The implosion of Mexico is the most serious near-term threat. —James A. Russell • Russia, whose resources, large military, nuclear arsenal, geostrategic position, and intentions make it the most powerful counterweight in the world to the United States. —John Arquilla • We haven't had one since the USSR fell apart. —William Rosenau • We don't have a "top geopolitical foe." The most serious threats the U.S. -- and the global community -- face are currently collective in nature (climate change, disease, economic crisis). —Rosa Brooks • Changeable.  The world just isn't that simple anymore. —John Nagl • Rising anti-Americanism in parts of the developing world, much of it the result of U.S. policies. —Donald Snow • It's own unrestrained tendency to meddle. —Gordon Adams • Ourselves, because we are so internally conflicted and confused. —Henry Rowen • Our Congress, which does not have the seriousness of purpose needed to do its job. —Rachel Kleinfeld • Our collapsing political system. More briefly, us. —Heather Hurlburt

OBAMA'S DRONE POLICY IS…

Reducing collateral damage, timely, well controlled, and effective. —Abraham Karem • Politically seductive but insufficient and possibly even counterproductive for combating terrorism in the long run. —Amy Zegart • The most pragmatic solution for the problem, and it saves lives. —Robert D. Kaplan • Effective in targeting some terrorists, though it needs to be complemented with other security, economic, and political instruments that help address the causes of terrorism. —Seth G. Jones • Commendable. —Edward Luttwak • Questionable and may set a dangerous international precedent. —Gordon Adams • Sensible. —Graham Allison • Ludicrously secretive. —William Rosenau • Controversial, but effective. —Richard Burt • Tactically and operationally effective, but risks -- at the strategic and political levels -- establishing norms we won't want to live with. —Nathaniel Fick • Overrelying on this one lethal tool and also is in need of a stronger and more transparent legal framework. —Paul Pillar • Meeting a key security need in a dangerous world. —David Barno • A tactic in search of a strategy. Current overreliance on drones is likely doing more strategic harm than good. —Rosa Brooks • Quite apart from its lack of oversight and constitutional ambiguities, an attempted response to a symptom. By focusing on drones, we ignore the underlying causes of extremism and often actually exacerbate it. —Sarah Chayes • Something the U.S. Congress should debate and authorize (or not) country by country. —Benjamin H. Friedman • Prudent because it focuses on projecting precise power without projecting undue liability and vulnerability. —Douglas Birkey • Legal, but too central to our counterterrorism policy, and problematic. —Eliot Cohen • Legal, but an evasion of responsibility and likely to have diminishing returns once the U.S. retreats from Afghanistan. —Danielle Pletka • Effective but should not be overplayed if it contributes to the instability of Pakistan or other countries. —Thomas Henriksen • Reasonable, but could be strengthened with judicial oversight. —John Nagl • Difficult to comprehend given the limited and recently decreasing transparency provided by the White House. —Micah Zenko • The beginning of a brave new world of conflict. Since World War II, American presidents have been balanced in their use of force by having to weigh congressional support and the cost of American lives. Now presidents will be less constrained. —Kevin Ryan • Narcissistic. It lures us into a belief that war is too easy and painless. —Donald Snow • Due for a speech outlining America's vision on where the technology and the policy should evolve to next. Who better than a commander in chief/law professor/Nobel Prize winner to give that speech? —Peter Singer

THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF ANNUAL U.S. DEFENSE SPENDING IS… 

Somewhere in the $300-$400 billion range. —Donald Snow • $450B. —Kori Schake • About $450 billion (wild guess), simply to maintain our splendid military institutions. —Henry Gaffney • Somewhere around $450 billion in constant FY 2013 dollars. —Gordon Adams • Determined by strategy and below $500 billion. —Heather Hurlburt • On the order of $500 billion. —Merrill McPeak • At least $550 billion, plus overseas contingency operations. —Dov Zakheim • $500-$600 billion, depending on operational contingency spending. —Jeffrey Dressler • About $575 billion, adjusted for inflation and not including overseas contingency ops. —David Barno • $600B. —John Deni • 3 percent of GDP; we need economical expansion and also need to win the "defense-per-dollar" competition with China! —Abraham Karem • At most, 3.5 percent of GDP when no major threat exists, as is the case today. —Christopher Twomey • Approximately 3.9 percent of GDP. —Thomas Henriksen • 4 percent of GDP. —Eliot Cohen • Dependent upon changing strategic needs, but probably not too different from the FY 2013 level. —Richard Aboulafia • Roughly what we are spending now, with a greater emphasis over time on recapitalizing the Navy and Air Force. —Thomas Mahnken • Less than it is now. There's a lot of waste in the current system. —Rosa Brooks • Much less than the last 11 years. —Robert Cassidy • What we spent in the 1990s at most -- 30 percent plus reduction in real terms. —Benjamin H. Friedman • More akin to the 2001 level than today's. —Barry Pavel • It depends on the U.S. grand strategy it is intended to support. —Micah Zenko • Dramatically less if capabilities were better suited to what our military is actually called upon to do. —Russell Rumbaugh • That which can accomplish the nation's security strategy and priorities with minimum risk. —David Deptula • Ideally somehow linked to our national strategic and economic security situation (to dream the impossible dream). —Peter Singer • Unlikely to be reached given the sausage-making appropriations process. —Richard Fontaine • Inherently elusive. —Frederic Wehrey • Unknown. —Richard Kohn

12NEXT