For the United States this represents the next logical step in trade liberalization: bilateral and regional deals becoming the building blocks for a bigger free trade bloc. The TPP includes several countries with which the United States already has free trade agreements: Canada and Mexico through NAFTA, plus Australia, Chile, Peru, and Singapore through bilateral arrangements.

The White House hopes to attract other members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation to the TPP, including China, Russia, Indonesia, and South Korea. It's unlikely that every country will join, but that hasn't stopped the United States before. Even though the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas failed, Washington managed to sign bilateral and regional deals with 10 of the potential members, including Chile and Peru.

Of course, those would pale in comparison to a U.S. free trade agreement with the European Union, which Obama proposed last month in his State of the Union address. The economic gains could be enormous -- these are the two biggest economies in the world -- and they could not come at a better time. But there are still plenty of legal, political, and perhaps even cultural hurdles. For one thing, any agreement would have to be consistent with the obligations of all the other pacts that both economies already have on their books, presumably including the EU's special programs for its former colonies in Africa, the Caribbean, and the Pacific.

The creation of big blocs may just change the game, however. While the United States pushes forward with the TPP, the EU has been seeking deals with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, in hopes of bundling them into a regional agreement. A deal with the United States would pave the way for a megadeal between the TPP and an EU-ASEAN bloc. In total, these countries represented about 65 percent of the world economy in 2011, and a pact between them would come a lot closer to a global trade agreement than anything the WTO has done lately.

Once that happens, the world will be split into trade leaders and trade laggards. The leaders will get richer as their trade intensifies, but, as I wrote in my 2011 book, their living standards and product offerings will also converge. As a result, they'll be looking for new trading partners to restore the diversity of their blocs. At the same time, the laggards will see their own living standards fall behind, which could make them more eager to pursue foreign trade and investment.

These incentives will bring even more countries to the bargaining table, ultimately leading to trade agreements that cover the entire globe. And unlike the Doha talks, which haven't lowered a single trade barrier in 12 years, the benefits of free trade will build at every step of the way. Obama may have gotten a late start on trade, but a shift to regional deals will give him a great chance to finish strong.

PREVIOUS 12