Investment Implications: The United States is immensely well-prepared to deal with Wars of Iron and is poised to buy more conventional "iron" weaponry at massive expense -- arguably to face a world of limited threats, none existential. In the face of growing fiscal pressure, the United States is in effect pouring immense resources into perfecting yesterday's capabilities, robbing scarce capital from investments required to address the growth of emerging technologies and high-end competitors. More short-range strike fighters and low-end surface ships mirroring today's ways of fighting are not the answer. These "legacy-plus" systems come at the cost of essential research in science and technology. Put simply, over-investment in Wars of Iron is robbing the U.S. military and the nation of the resources it will need to develop and field dominant military capabilities for the world of 2030.
Wars in the Shadows are the third type of potential conflict. A decade of irregular conflict in the aftermath of September 11, 2001 has left the United States well-prepared to fight in this domain. It arguably has the most capable low-level intelligence and special forces capabilities in its history, honed by years of war against insurgents and terrorists. And it is increasingly apparent that these irregular wars will persist in the aftermath of the U.S. military drawdowns in Iraq and Afghanistan, perhaps for decades to come. Ongoing special forces and intelligence operations in Yemen, the Philippines, Colombia, Mali, Niger, and the Horn of Africa all speak to the pervasiveness of unconventional extremist threats in remote corners of the world. In the last decade, al Qaeda has metastasized across a broad range of countries and regions, committing the United States to an increasingly global fight aimed at preventing further attacks on the U.S. homeland or its allies. As a result, the United States has directed substantial resources into capabilities optimized for fighting Shadow Wars. Drones, special operators, intelligence activities, and other tools of unconventional warfare will continue to be in high demand.
Investment Implications: The United States unquestionably needs to sustain its decade-long investment in irregular-warfare capabilities. In particular, its ability to collect actionable intelligence from around the globe provides an irreplaceable bulwark against surprise attacks by al Qaeda-like groups. This worldwide early-warning network has become indispensible to the defense of the nation. That same network enables special operators to both pre-empt threats and rapidly retaliate. The American people have come to expect this level of protection, putting down an enduring marker for the defense and intelligence communities.
Fast-growing technologies have advanced the capabilities of this community dramatically in the last decade -- and these new tools have in turn become adjuncts to all three types of wars. Drones for surveillance and strike have become the iconic weapon of this era. They are increasingly long-range, high-endurance, and capable of precision strike. They deserve sustained investment to push the envelope of new capabilities. The ability to rapidly process intelligence from these diverse sources and "turn" it back into immediate battlefield results is also ground-breaking if less visible.
Finally, highly-trained special operators are becoming a pre-eminent American military capability, providing a scalable, multi-role tool in an uncertain security environment. Offering skills ranging from partnership-building and advisory capabilities to strike operations, special operations forces will continue to be the weapon of choice for many complex scenarios. Sustaining recent investments in this community and its enablers -- not only drones, but also helicopters and airplanes -- should remain a top priority. But they remain an adjunct to, not a replacement for, conventional forces, which are still necessary to prevail in the bigger Wars of Iron.
The coming defense drawdown and budgetary belt-tightening offers a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reshape the U.S. military and defense industry toward the three wars of the future. The political climate in Washington in the aftermath of sequestration suggests the time is here for bolder moves. Current procurement plans are feeding vast resources into programs designed to achieve even more dominance in Wars of Iron, while doing far too little to prepare for the coming Wars of Silicon. It's time to seize the moment and re-balance the U.S. investment portfolio with a bias toward future capabilities, rather than doubling down on costly replacements for today's still highly-capable weapons systems. Failure to make this shift now will leave the nation at risk when the truly high-end wars of the future arrive.
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