The re-reset?
The affable, even semi-affectionate tone in the Bibi-Obama press conference, as well as the warmth with which the president was received in public, masks some inconvenient truths with regard to the leaders' policy differences. For instance, if Obama tries to sells the Israelis on a deal with the mullahs on uranium enrichment, he'll likely find real skepticism.
If he pushes too hard on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, however, he may well run into open opposition and hostility. No matter how well this visit went, there are fundamental differences between Bibi and Obama on the core peace-process issues -- particularly on territory and Jerusalem, where Obama is much closer to Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas. Moreover unlike Iran, progress on the peace process could fracture Netanyahu's own party, bring down his government, and set up another test of wills with the United States.
Obama knows the score, and has seen the movie. The glow in the aftermath of this reset will vanish quickly the harder he pushes Israel on the Palestinian issue. The real issue is this: Is the reset functional? Can Obama work toward a process that brings Netanyahu along without triggering a crisis, and still keep the Palestinians on board?
Right now, it seems like a circle that's very hard to square. The gaps on the core issues don't seem bridgeable, at least between Bibi and Abbas. And an Obama maneuver for regime change -- using his newfound popularity in Israel to undermine Bibi in hopes of getting a better government -- seems pretty fanciful. Is it plausible that Obama made nice to Bibi only to be in a position to push him harder?
And exactly how much is Obama prepared to pile on? If there is a deal with the mullahs on the nuclear issue, the president will need every ounce of persuasiveness to sell it to Netanyahu. And if the United States attacks Iran, he and Bibi will become even more closely aligned if Iran or its proxies retaliate. We're nowhere near any of this now. But it's clear that Obama isn't looking for a fight with Bibi so soon after trying to patch things up. It's really hard to see Obama getting tough with Israel the way Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush did, particularly after that lovefest in Jerusalem.
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