The Kerry canary in the coal mine
I've said repeatedly that Obama is the most controlling foreign-policy president since Nixon -- and he won't change easily, particularly when he's convinced his foreign policy has been pretty successful.
But he must, in at least one regard. Specifically, he should let John Kerry actually be in charge of the Israeli-Palestinian brief. The brief should come with two presidential caveats -- don't undo my fledgling reset with Bibi (yet), and don't demand a lot of time from me (now). The president should tell his secretary of state that he will gladly be available for the guts-and-glory phase of the peace process end game, but Kerry (and his team, which he must be allowed to build) have to set it up.
Give Kerry the mandate. It's perfect. Let him shuttle. That's what secretaries of state are for. Indeed, it's going to take months of conversations, hundreds of hours of meetings, and thousands of miles of travel to even test the proposition that some kind of agreement can be reached. And at this stage, it's no loss for the president so long as Kerry doesn't undo the reset. If it works, the president will be viewed as a managerial genius. And if it doesn't, well ... it's John Kerry's peace process, right?
Success, not domestic politics
People have it wrong. The real reasons presidents get involved in tough issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not just because they're important, but because they think they can actually succeed. It's not the absence of second-term political constraints, it's the presence of real opportunity that drives presidential involvement.
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