The potential for progress is what's currently missing. Right now, the administration has no strategy -- or at least not one that holds a lot of promise. The current approach seems to be pressing for negotiations that lead to a provisional Palestinian state, based on a tradeoff between security for Israel and sovereignty for the Palestinians. Borders first, so to speak -- and then negotiation of a more general character on the identity issues, Jerusalem, and refugees.
I'm not critical of this approach, because frankly there doesn't seem to be a much better one right now. But we're deluding ourselves if we think it can work quickly, or perhaps at all. It's a very pro-Israeli approach, in that it calls for direct talks without preconditions, says nothing on settlements, and doesn't include a timeline to resolve the final status issues. And it really does presume an enormous amount of trust between Netanyahu and Abbas, which currently doesn't exist.
The answers to all these uncertainties will come in the weeks and months ahead. But one thing is clear: This president isn't going to repeat the mistakes of his first term -- setting goals he can't deliver, pursuing a settlements freeze, and having pointless fights with Netanyahu over issues that won't make him an historic peacemaker. Hopefully he won't be fooled into thinking that successful telephone diplomacy between Bibi and Erdogan means he's got a career as a Middle East negotiator.
Obama doesn't want to be the American president on whose watch the two-state solution expires. But he won't rush to be its midwife either, without a much greater sense that he can succeed.
So, Israelis and Palestinians, take notice. You want the president to help produce a two- state solution? Give him a reason to believe you have a real stake in one too. Otherwise, stop whining: Barack Obama has more important things to do.
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