National Security

The bullhorn for North Korea; Chuck Hagel’s paycut; Changing it up on Iran; What war would look like; The ANSF in Afghanistan: taking the fight; Gidget Fuentes, departing; and a little more.

By Gordon Lubold

Shouting across the DMZ: As tensions simmer and fears of miscalculation leading to escalation grow, there aren't a lot of sophisticated ways to communicate with North Korea, Situation Report was told. Years ago, a hotline was established by the U.N., but the North Koreans routinely cut it off when they get mad. "If we want to get word across, we go to the DMZ and get a bullhorn and push the message across that way," Walter "Skip" Sharp, the retired four-star who commanded U.S. forces in Korea between 2008 and 2011, told Situation Report. "We're confident the message gets through." One of the other ways to send a message is of course through China, he said, or through dual-credentialed diplomats based in Seoul, like the Canadians.

Sharp, on the possibility of ground troops: The U.S. and South Korea have played numerous, high-level war games over the years to prepare for a significant conflict. One of the key signs of imminent attack, of course, would be the mobilization of forces in the North, triggering a mobilization of South Korean troops. Sharp: "I think it would be a step that would be agreed to only when both the ROK president and our president have seen enough indicators of mobilization and movement and other things that we look for in North Korea that we say that there's a pretty good chance that we're really going to war. For us to do that, the North Koreans would probably have announced they would mobilize their whole force. That would be done simultaneously. I think if we ever got to that point, we are on the edge of war."

There are as many as 200,000 Americans in South Korea who would have to be evacuated if things got ugly. Responsibility for a non-combatant evacuation operation, or "neo," would fall to the current U.S. commander, Gen. James Thurman, to oversee such an operation. "There is a whole set of things you have to do, and obviously the military commander wants to do it sooner rather than later," Sharp said. 

Pavlov's dog of war: Why is Kim Jong-un is doing this? Because it tends to work. Every time Kim or his father before him (or his father before him) have rattled their sabers, they get something in return. "So he has seen that, and believed that in order to get us to back down, the provocation has to be even of a higher provocation than in the past. He's pushing the limits to see what that point is." But Sharp says he's not sure the North Korean leader fully understands just how frustrated -- and scared -- the South Koreans are. If North Korea launches another torpedo attack -- as they did some years ago -- it could trigger a strong reaction from the South. "I'm still not convinced that he really understands just how much the South Korean people's demand is for a kinetic attack -- it will be very strong."

Wanna know how a war would start with North Korea? Read below an excerpt from Patrick Cronin's piece on FP. 

Welcome to Thursday's edition of Situation Report, where it starts every morning at 5:30. Sign up for Situation Report here or just e-mail me. And always, if you have a report, piece of news, or tidbit you want teased, send it to us early for maximum tease. If we can get it in, we will. And help us fill our candy dish: news of the military weird, strange trends, personnel comings-and-goings and whatnot.

The Army is moving THAAD to Guam. The Pentagon announced yesterday that it would deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system to the island of Guam. The news of the deployment of the Lockheed Martin-made "THAAD" missile defense system is a sign of concern that Kim could make good on his threat to strike U.S. targets. Read the E-Ring's Kevin Baron's piece on THAAD, here. 

Despite all this, the White House is dialing back its posture on North Korea. For the last week or so, there has been a barrage of announcements, from the arrival of F-22 stealth jets, to the flyover of B-2 bombers on the Korean Peninsula. But the WSJ reports this morning that out of fear that all of this plays into the North Korean plan, the U.S. national security staff has turned down the noise. The U.S. is pausing its step-by-step plan, called "the playbook," so nothing will be misconstrued by the North Koreans.  A top administration official told the WSJ: "The concern was that we were heightening the prospect of misperceptions on the part of the North Koreans, and that that could lead to miscalculations."

Voluntary salary cuts -- the new in thing in Washington. The budget crunch means it's in vogue to give up some of your pay. Yesterday, the NYT reported that President Obama was parting with 5 percent of his roughly $400,000 salary -- about $20,000 -- in solidarity with federal workers who are losing part of their salaries under furloughs. Deputy Defense Secretary Ash Carter said some time ago he would give up part of his salary. And on Tuesday, Pentagon Press Secretary George Little announced that Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel -- Senate confirmed and therefore not subject to the furloughs forced by sequester -- had volunteered to give up 14 days of his salary, the equivalent of what he would lose if he were subject to furlough. Hagel makes about $200,000 per year, so he'll lose about $10,000.

How does one return part of their salary to the government? Ask the lawyers. Little, on Tuesday: "My understanding is -- and I'm not the accountant expert here -- but my understanding is that there is a legal way to actually write a check, if you will, back to the U.S. Treasury." 

Chuck Hagel is attempting to establish his bona fides as an activist Pentagon chief. Yesterday's "major policy speech" at National Defense University was Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel's wake-up call to the uniforms, contractors, civilians, the industry and perhaps the bureaucracy in general that things are going to be different. Of course he is not the first to carry this message. But as the sequester axe falls and the necessity of billions of dollars of additional cuts loom, Hagel may be poised to lead the charge and take that hill. One of the lines that perhaps resonates the most is his bit about trimming the Pentagon itself. Hagel, on the Pentagon: "More broadly, despite good efforts and intentions, it is still not clear that every option has been exercised or considered to pare back the world's largest back-office," he said. "The military is not, and should never be, run like a corporation.  But that does not mean we don't have a good deal to learn from what the private sector has achieved over the past 20 to 30 years, in which reducing layers of upper and middle management not only reduces costs and micromanagement, it also leads to more agile and effective organizations and more empowered junior leaders. In light of all these trends, we need to examine whether DoD is structured and incentivized to ask for more and do more, and that entails taking a hard look at requirements - how they are generated, and where they are generated from."

We're told Hagel made final changes to the speech at his desk Wednesday morning and strayed little from his prepared text. Read the full speech here.

Gidget Fuentes is leaving Navy and Marine Corps Times. After more than 18 years at the Gannett-owned papers, "Gidge," a fabled reporter in the Navy and Marine Corps world, is giving up the ghost. Widely known by lance corporals and four-stars alike, she's been a reporting machine, covering the military since 1992, when she first deployed to Somalia. "It's good to hit the ground running and learn as much as you can from the ground, listening to the lance corporals and savvy captains," she told Situation Report by e-mail. She remembers getting a ride in an AH-1W Super Cobra at Camp Pendleton, Calif., spending a half-day on a boomer sub, doing two Marine "Crucibles," one at Pendleton and another at Parris Island, S.C. And she's seen Marines and sailors come and go. "Lots of happy homecomings and somber deployments," she says. She's leaving to do some freelance work, volunteer, and travel with her husband. "It's all good," she says. "It'll be an adventure for sure."

Today at Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, a discussion on whether the U.S. should encourage South Korea and Japan to make plutonium-based nuclear fuels. Lunch at 11:45 on the Hill, in Rayburn room number 2200. Discussion at noon. Deets here. 

And at USIP tomorrow, Afghanistan elections. Lost in the clutter of all things Afghanistan is the fact that a year from now, Afghans are supposed to be voting on a new president. But there are a host of issues that must be resolved first. A panel discussion tomorrow at 10 a.m. at USIP with Nader Nadery, chair of the Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan, USIP's Scott Smith and Hossai Wardak, and USAID's Scott Worden. Moderated by USIP's Andrew Wilder. Deets here. ICYMI: Scott Smith jumps into the Richard Holbrooke legacy debate on FP with "The Bull in Afghanistan's China Shop," here.

IEDs attacks show the ANSF stepping up. According to the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization, or JIEDDO, there were nearly 2,500 IED "events" in Afghanistan between December 1 and February 28, 2013. That is a 3 percent decline despite a 32 percent decrease in the number of coalition "boots on the ground." That means, according to JIEDDO, that while the number of incidents has remained relatively static, more of them are aimed at the Afghan National Security Forces. "Attacks on Afghan National Security Forces are climbing (up 100 percent) as they take the lead in operations," according to a data slide provided to Situation Report. At the same time, 64 percent of all casualties are attributed to IEDs, but the number of "casualty-causing attacks" is 70 percent below last year. That positive trend is attributable to new equipment, training, and lessons learned, shared from unit-to-unit, JIEDDO officials say. 

Time for a new approach on Iran. A new report due out this morning from the Atlantic Council says it's time to get a little more pragmatic with Iran, and features way to reach out to the Iranian people regardless of what happens with nuclear talks. Suggestions include tweaking sanctions and stationing Americans in Tehran to process visas.

Four themes, according to the execsum: One: "Even while ensuring that nuclear-related sanctions are made more effective, the U.S. and its allies should introduce new measures to augment people-to-people ties, support Iran's democratic evolution, and facilitate trade in?food, medicine, and medical supplies;" Two: "Diminishing Iran's ability to hurt the interests of the US and its allies in the region;" Three: "Stopping and reversing Iran's progression toward a nuclear weapons capability through negotiations, including direct bilateral talks; and four: "Engaging the Iranian people by increasing outreach through media, technology, academic, cultural, and sports exchanges, and direct diplomatic access." Read the report here.

Who was on the Task Force? It was chaired by Amb. Stu Eizenstat and, before he was nominated to be Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel. The task force also included: Odeh Aburene, Michael Adler, James Cartwright, Joseph Cirincione, Michael V. Hayden, Trita Parsi, ?Thomas R. Pickering, William Reinsch, Richard Sawaya, Greg Thielmann and Harlan Ullman.

What war would look like. David Petraeus was famous for saying "tell me how this ends," talking about Iraq. Now in Patrick Cronin's piece on FP, "Tell me How this Starts," Cronin describes how things could go south, as it were. Cronin: "Let's say that the North decides to fire its new mobile KN-08 intermediate-range ballistic missile, capable of reaching U.S. bases in Guam. An X-band radar based in Japan detects the launch, cueing missile defenses aboard Japanese and U.S. ships. The U.S.S. Stetham, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer equipped with Aegis phased-array radars, fires its SM-3 missiles, which hit and shatter the KN-08 warhead as it begins its final descent. The successful intercept is immediately touted internationally as a victory, but, now desperate for tactical advantage that will allow it to preserve its nuclear and missile programs, the North Korean leadership orders an assault on South Korean patrol vessels and military fortifications built after the 2010 shelling incident.

"The regime feels safe in striking out along the maritime boundary because the two sides have repeatedly skirmished in the area in the past 15 years. But President Park, determined to show backbone, dispatches on-alert F-15K fighter aircraft armed with AGM-84E SLAM-Expanded Response air-to-ground missiles to destroy the North Korean installations responsible for the latest assault. For good measure, they also bomb a North Korean mini-submarine pier as belated payback for the sinking of Cheonan. North Korean soldiers and military officers are killed in the attack. Pyongyang vows a merciless response and launches a risky salvo of rockets into downtown Seoul, in hope of shocking the Blue House into seeking an immediate cessation of fighting. But far from ending the tit-for-tat attacks, North Korean actions have now triggered the Second Korean War."

Noting Randomly


  • NYT: North Korean missile moved to coast, but little threat seen. Gunpowder and Lead:  Fun with numbers, and the $900 million in Stryker parts.
  • Defense News: Hagel calls for major overhaul of military structure. 
  • Danger Room: "There's no turning back: my interview with a hunted American jihadist.
  • Secrecy News: Defense doctrine offers insight into military operations.
  • The Indianapolis Star: Former Marine dreams of playing taps every night, everywhere.  

National Security

Hagel talks North Korea to China’s Gen. Chang Wanquan, meets with Filipino foreign minister; Wheels up for Dempsey, but not for Hagel; IEDs kill thousands in Syria; Secure that smartphone, Army!; and a little more.

By Gordon Lubold

Hagel spoke with China's defense minister about North Korea. China is figuring prominently in the current situation on the Korean Peninsula as the ally that could talk North Korea off the ledge, and Secretary Hagel raised the issue yesterday when he called the new Chinese minister of national defense, Gen. Chang Wanquan, to congratulate him on his appointment. From Pentagon Press Secretary George Little's readout: "The secretary emphasized the growing threat to the U.S. and our allies posed by North Korea's aggressive pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs and expressed to General Chang the importance of sustained U.S.-China dialogue and cooperation on these issues."

Headed to China -- Gen. Marty Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, later this month. Invited to the U.S. by Hagel -- Gen. Chang.

The Pentagon's response to North Korea now includes two destroyers as well as a sea-based X-band radar, or SBX, used to support ballistic missile defenses, and is now part of the mission. In addition to the USS John McCain, which the Pentagon announced earlier this week, Pentagon press secretary George Little yesterday said a second ship, the USS Decatur, was in the Pacific monitoring North Korea and "poised to respond to any missile threats to our allies or our territory." But when asked about the SBX that is also in the region, Little said it wasn't part of the response to North Korea and that decisions about any future deployments of the system have yet to be made. "I believe it's incorrect to tie the SBX at this point to what's happening on the Korean Peninsula right now," he said. But other U.S. officials tell Situation Report that the SBX -- what looks like a floating oil rig with a huge golf ball atop ­- is in the Pacific for good reason. While it was deployed under U.S. Northern Command March 24 as part of regularly scheduled testing, it has now been clearly plugged into the larger ballistic missile defense effort in response to trouble on the Korean Peninsula, Situation Report is told.

Hagel also stopped in on a meeting yesterday with Ash Carter and Filipino foreign minister. The E-Ring's Kevin Baron reported yesterday that Hagel stopped by a meeting between Deputy Secretary of Defense Ash Carter and Filipino Foreign Minister Albert Del Rosario in one of the defense secretary's conference rooms. They talked about the damage left by the USS Guardian, an American countermine ship that ran aground on a reef in the Philippines, Baron reports. Baron: "The meeting comes as U.S. and Filipino relations have grown closer, U.S. officials feel, and as both nations eye threats coming out of North Korea. The Philippines agreed to host more U.S. troops, ships and aircraft on a rotational basis, during a visit by then-Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell."

Welcome to Wednesday's edition of Situation Report. Sign up for Situation Report here or just e-mail me. And always, if you have a report, piece of news, or tidbit you want teased, send it to us early for maximum tease. If we can get it in, we will. And help us fill our candy dish: news of the military weird, strange trends, personnel comings-and-goings and whatnot.

A Syrian jet flew 12 miles into Lebanon and fired a missile. Reuters reports this morning that the jet fired a missile into a field on the outskirts of border town of Arsal, but it caused no casualties. "It was not immediately clear what the Syrian jet on Wednesday was targeting. Local residents said a Syrian army helicopter was also hovering near Arsal, in Lebanese airspace, at the time," Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, the IED threat in Syria emanates from imported TTPs from other areas, including the Central Command AOR and Europe. According to the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization, or JIEDDO, there were more than 400 IED incidents reported in Syria between the beginning of January and the end of December 2012, according to new data provided to Situation Report. Of those incidents, nearly 50 percent -- 197 -- caused casualties. In total, there were 970 people killed and more than 2,400 wounded. Overall, civilians were killed or wounded in about 47 percent of the incidents, police in 11 percent, and military in 10 percent.

Citing open source data the organization tracks, JIEDDO tells Situation Report that the IED threats come from a number of groups, including one, Al-Musrah Front for the People of the Levant, that is associated with al Qaeda. Another group, Ansar Mohammed Battalion, is associated with the Free Syrian Army Military Council, and some attacks are attributed to the Shams Falcon Brigade.

Zoiks! The Pentagon IG says the Army has thousands of unsecure smartphones. Called out by the Pentagon Inspector General: the U.S. Army for the fact that thousands of the smartphones troops buy off the shelves to use on the job aren't actually secure, Killer Apps' John Reed reports. "‘The Army Chief Information Officer (CIO) did not implement an effective cyber security program for ‘commercially purchased smartphones and tablets, reads a new announcement from the DOD IG. ‘Specifically, the Army CIO did not appropriately track [off-the-shelf devices] and was unaware of more than 14,000 [such devices] used throughout the Army,'" according to the IG report.

The IG investigated the Army's use of phones and tablets running Google's Android, Apple's iOS, and Microsoft's Windows Mobile operating systems in 2012. Don't feel bad for BlackBerrys -- do people still have them? -- because the IG had already done an investigation on their security in 2009.

What the Army's chief information officer, Lt. Gen. Susan Lawrence, told Reed in October about how the service will protect its information when troops are BYOD (bringing their own devices) to work: "At the end of the day, we're really are going to become hardware agnostic. Whatever device you feel most comfortable with to do command and control, to be mobile with, is the device that you'll have and that's the one that we'll work with. We're in the RIM [Blackberry] environment, we're in the Apple environment, and we're in the [Google Android] already as we go through this. What you will agree to do is, if that's the device you want to use, you're going to sign an agreement with me that I get to scan you before you log on. I get to scan your device and then, you're also going to let me monitor you so that I can look for an inside threat as well. So if you're on the government network, you're gonna let me scan you first and you're gonna let me monitor you second."

Dempsey is wheels up. Gen. Dempsey will greet the Brazilian Chief of Defense, Gen. Jose Carlos DeNardi, this morning at the Pentagon's River Entrance for what was described as an "enhanced cordon." Later today, he is leaving for Stuttgart, Germany for the change of command ceremony there Friday for U.S. Africa Command, when Gen. Carter Ham will be replaced by Gen. David "Rod" Rodriguez. He will also stop in Afghanistan as part of the same trip.

Staffers on a plane -- Senior staff include Lt. Gen. Terry Wolff, the director of Strategic Plans and Policy, and Joe Donovan, Dempsey's foreign policy adviser.

Reporters on a plane -- AP's Bob Burns, Alhurrah's Joe Tabet, and the Pentagon's American Forces Press Service' Claudette Roulo.

Who's not going to Stuttgart? Hagel. Who might not be the pomp-and-circumstance SecDef? Answer: Hagel again. Hagel is making a major policy speech today -- his first -- at National Defense University about the future of DOD, and how it will meet fiscal challenges and national security requirements at the same time. But that means he's not going to Stuttgart for the change of command. Although Hagel went to U.S. Central Command to bear witness to that commander change late last month, it's likely Hagel will not be a pomp-and-circumstance kinda SecDef. Typically, defense secretaries travel to these ceremonies marking the passing-of-the-baton for major combatant commands, from Pacific Command in Hawaii, to Central Command in Tampa, Fla., to European Command in Stuttgart -- or SACEUR in Belgium. But Hagel and his staff may be figuring his time is better spent back home, focused on the myriad challenges of running a Pentagon in transition -- and saving the money of getting him there and back, too. "Between sequestration, Hill testimony and the admission of the budget, North Korea and elsewhere, he wants to focus on the business of the Pentagon and not necessarily an hour-long event that takes two days to get to and back from," a defense official told Situation Report.

Today at CNP/Truman Project at 3pm - a discussion about DOD's tactical and operational energy operations with the Pentagon's Sharon Burke, assistant secretary of defense for operational energy plans and programs. Deets here.

From the Situation Report inbox. One reader of Situation Report took issue with the way we termed the impact that U.S. military hardware - B-2 and B-52 bombers, F-22 Raptors and now Navy destroyers with ballistic missile defense capabilities - was being used to "urge restraint" in the effort to calm things down on the peninsula. But the reader thinks deploying this stuff sends the wrong message. William T. Hunter Jr.: "Rather than urge restraint it appears to me it is in-your-face taunting of a bully. This has gone on for 60+ years and is currently reinforced by the ongoing warmongering in N. Africa with us ensconced in the ever colder ‘Arab Winter.' If the crazy people in N. Korea were to respond with anything nuclear of any size and anywhere our bellicose calming would be cited and the cause. Our expansion of war around the world will bring us down."

Nobody's home at State? There's a large number of senior State Department positions that remain vacant and, as the Cable's Josh Rogin reports, "the process to fill them seems indefinitely stalled," according to officials there. Rogin: "When Kerry's predecessor, Hillary Clinton, came into office, she negotiated for herself 100 percent control over State Department appointments and largely kept Obama campaign officials at arms' length. Kerry has no such deal with the White House, and his office is only one voice in a White House-managed appointment process that is moving as slowly as molasses, several State Department officials and insiders say." And: "As Kerry prepares to travel to East Asia next week, his third major overseas adventure in his short time in Foggy Bottom, the most glaring opening at State is the post of assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs (EAP), which was vacated by Kurt Campbell in February. NSS Senior Director for Asia Danny Russel has been long assumed the leading contender, but Kerry is said to prefer a non-White House staffer. Meanwhile, Deputy Assistant Secretary Joe Yun has been running the EAP shop."

Sgt. Hagel is going to be listening to enlisted types a lot more.  From yesterday's briefing with Little came a question about Hagel's meeting with junior enlisted - which may have begun a new tradition for the sergeant-turned-SecDef: Question, from U.S. News' Paul Shinkman: "What specific information is he getting from them that he's not getting from his senior enlisted advisers?  And what is he doing to sort of put that into context?" Answer, in part, from Little: "The secretary's lunch last Thursday was, I think, extremely informative for him.  He heard from junior enlisted troops from all services, and they shared their insights into why they got into the military and what the military has brought them, some of the challenges they have faced personally and professionally. He, I think, heard from some service members in the junior enlisted ranks who had some very compelling and quite difficult personal stories, who chose the military as a career because it helped them get out of some other deeply problematic personal situations.  Others chose the military because they thought it would be a good career. I think he values that insight.  And he took notes and pledged to get back to them.  And that's something that he looks forward to continuing to do, not just with junior enlisted members, but he's someone who listens carefully, takes everyone's opinion into account.  I've heard that personally.  He's not looking just for the advice of people like me who sit in the senior ranks of the Pentagon, but he's looking to hear from troops in Afghanistan and elsewhere."

What Sequester?

Noting

Hardware

  • Defense News: CBO gives Bradley fighting vehicle a black eye.
  • Nextgov: Serious paper shredding at F-35 program office.
  • Duffel Blog: F-35 scores first combat kill by shooting down F-35 program.
  • Fox: Giant robot jellyfish to patrol U.S. coasts.