Don't overestimate the importance of personality
And this brings us to a related point. I've harped in this space repeatedly on the skills and virtues of two previous secretaries of state, Henry Kissinger and James Baker. But without the circumstances that allowed them to display their formidable talents, there would have been no virtuoso performance. And the most important of these circumstances is the urgency of the moment -- usually driven by both pain and gain, which impels the locals to change their calculations and readjust their horizons to consider an agreement.
Do we really think Kissinger could have succeeded without the 1973 October war, Jimmy Carter without Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, or Baker without America's victory in the first Gulf War? Those guys were good -- but they weren't that good.
No matter how smart and determined Kerry is, he can't manufacture that sense of urgency nor fabricate the ownership required by the Arabs and Israelis to reach an agreement. He can prod, push, bribe, and cajole -- but without the parties' need for the deal, it's not going to happen.
The absence of that urgency and ownership is why there has been no consequential U.S.-brokered agreement since Baker's Madrid conference. That's right -- since October 1991. I'll do the math: That's nearly 22 years.
Don't push for talks for the sake of talks
I'm sure Kerry has already figured this out. Going back to the table without some mutually agreed terms of reference, guidelines, and a code of conduct will mean motion without movement and undermine what's left of the negotiating process -- not to mention Kerry's credibility.
What could possibly come of a rush to get Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table if the gaps that separate them are too wide, neither side is invested in the proposals, and the lack of trust is so deep that neither side is prepared to give the other the benefit of the doubt? At Madrid, we knew that talking for the sake of talking was worth something -- old taboos were broken, new bonds formed. But that was then.
After two decades of failed talks, violence, broken trust, negotiations without direction are not just a key to an empty room, they're destructive and harmful. No negotiations are better than dishonest ones.
Don't become part of the furniture
Baker made nine trips to the Middle East in 1991 to pull off the Madrid conference. Bill Clinton's first secretary of state, Warren Christopher, travelled to the Middle East 20-some times to support the Israeli-Palestinian Oslo agreements. Some criticized him for it, and there was certainly a lot of process and little peace. But that diplomacy helped support the Oslo process, facilitate Israeli-Syrian negotiations, and broker agreements between Israel, Lebanon, and Syria along the Israeli-Lebanese border. That was a lot of time in the air, to be sure, but the diplomacy actually led to results.
Kerry will soon face a separate frequent-flyer problem. For a new secretary of state, three trips in as many months to assess the situation on the ground makes sense. But if Kerry makes a few more without gaining some traction, he will increasingly risk being taken for granted by the Israelis and Palestinians -- too much a part of the furniture. Both parties can smell an empty suit a mile away. Without results, the Kerry's street cred will rapidly diminish.
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