John Kerry returns to Washington having completed his first trip to Asia as the U.S. secretary of state. The trip came at a time fraught with peril and complications -- much like his prior trips to the Middle East and Europe. That said, in every case he has shown signs that he is capable of being an exceptionally effective chief diplomat for the United States -- and shown warning signals that he is tempted in directions that may undo his efforts.
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Certainly, Kerry has been energetic. He has already put his personal imprint on U.S. diplomacy, meeting with most of America's principal allies and diving into the toughest problems from Israel-Palestine to Syria to Iran to Afghanistan to North Korea to cyberwar to the complex relationships with U.S. allies in Europe and frenemies in China. This is not to be minimized. Personal relationships with top leaders, the ability to speak candidly with them and show personal investment in critical issues -- all will bear fruit in the years ahead. People and personalities almost always trump policy and process in the real world of foreign policy.
In addition, Kerry has shown a canny sign of understanding that for all the hoopla and photo ops that commonly come with cabinet-level missions around the world, the most important work is done in private. He spoke of this in Asia, referring to North Korea but also more broadly to the nature of diplomacy. "Subtlety and definite secrecy and absence of advertisement" are required in sensitive cases, he thoughtfully observed. Offering Richard Nixon's secret diplomacy with China as an example, he said this principle would guide him in his interactions with China and in matters from North Korea to the Middle East.
For a man who devoted considerably less of his travel as Foreign Relations Committee senator to Asia than to other global hot spots, Kerry showed some of the deftness that he exhibited in Europe and the Middle East, regions where he has invested an extraordinary amount of time. With North Korea, Barack Obama's administration has behaved with exceptional balance. As Kim Jong Un ratcheted up the rhetoric, the U.S. military moved assets into position to show that the United States took the threat seriously and would respond to provocations forcefully. But Kerry also suggested that America was "prepared to reach out" to the North Koreans if there were signs they would moderate their threats and were genuinely interested in talks.
In China, in addition to establishing high-level ties, there were signs of progress on several levels. The Chinese agreed to join the United States in sketching out a plan forward toward a resolution of the North Korea problem. And, on another front, the United States and China agreed to set up a working group to address cyberissues. Working groups might seem the province of process-happy wonks, but in this case the agreement is wise on several levels.
First, given the broad number of sources, goals, and impacts of cyberattacks, there is a need for something like a "cyberhotline" to avoid escalation of tensions due to a misunderstanding, much as there was a need for a red phone during the days of the Cold War to avoid nuclear miscommunications and catastrophe. Next, the best way to diffuse potential tensions on this front is through constant, working-level communications, better understanding, and ultimately the establishment of rules by which both sides -- and ultimately the entire world -- agree to live. Finally and most importantly, such a working group carries forward the efforts established as part of the "strategic rebalancing" toward Asia and the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue to systematically deepen the relations between the two countries, forming more lines of interaction, at ever-deeper levels, between their large and complex public bureaucracies.
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