Long-term
trends do not bode well for the modern university. You might think that the hiring
drought in the academy is just a temporary lull. And that might be true. But go
read Nathan Harden's essay on the future of the university in The
American Interest. It's likely
an exaggeration, but there is certainly some truth in his Schumpeterian
assertion that "the Internet is a
great destroyer of any traditional business that relies on the sale of
information." The great hope for universities
to bolster sagging graduate programs is to encourage more foreign students --
but now even the Chinese influx of cash cows full-tuition-paying
students has slowed down. So academia, that bastion of stability, might
suddenly find itself on shakier ground at exactly the moment you arrive on the
scene.
Foreign governments might spy on you. For reals.
If you're a little distressed now, well, you should be. Does this mean you shouldn't get a Ph.D.? Well, if you really do want to get a job either teaching or practicing something to do with international affairs, then getting a Ph.D. is the absolute worst choice you can make -- until you consider the alternatives. Other professional degrees cost much more upfront and it's not like the job prospects for those degrees are any better. According to Beltway insiders, a Ph.D. gives you an advantage working for the government or for think tanks, and it's certainly true that the credential still counts for something.
There's one last criterion to determine whether you should enroll in that Ph.D. program, and it might be a little cornball, but it's nevertheless valid: love. You can grind out a professional degree -- an MA, JD, or MBA -- with discipline and intelligence. Not so with a Ph.D. There are hard-headed reasons that point toward getting a Ph.D., but they're meaningless unless you care deeply about your subject matter. Without love for your subject, you will never finish your doctorate, never tolerate the criticism you'll receive during the writing process, never tolerate the penury while your peers move on in life. If you don't love what you study, the burnout will be painful... and inevitable.
I wish you the very best of luck in making your decision about pursuing a doctorate. The process can be rewarding for the mentally tough and soul-crushing for everyone else. And to paraphrase The Princess Bride, anyone who tells you that it will get easier for Ph.D.s in the future is selling you something.
Sincerely,
Daniel W. Drezner
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