The conventional wisdom seems to be that Syria used "small scale" chemical agents to test Western resolve. This is the sort of thing that sounds great over coffee at the Brookings Institution -- you can be a sober voice for restraint without giving Bashar al-Assad the benefit of the doubt. But without more evidence than has been made public, the correct judgment is that we do not know whether chemical weapons have been used or not.
I actually think the Obama administration has handled restating the red line reasonably well -- though no one reported it correctly. In addition to restating the red line, a senior official on background (on background for no good reason, I might add) made clear that the administration will pursue the allegations of chemical weapons use. It is important for the president to convey that his restraint reflects the quality of the evidence, not indecision. The president could go further than his most recent statement by reminding Syrian commanders that they will be held personally responsible for any war crimes committed by units under their command. But overall, he's not doing too badly.
(His opponents, on the other hand...God help us. One reason the Syrians might conclude the president is weak is that his political opponents keep saying that. Hey folks, how about coming up with a national security policy that amounts to more than a list of countries you'd like to attack on the basis of whatever half-assed intelligence report you find convenient? Since I am still waiting for my apology regarding Iraq, I guess I realize the answer.)
The best outcome is still that Assad holds off on gassing cities until the very end -- by which time we hope it will be too late. Either his military will be crumbling too fast or his commanders will be thinking about their golden years someplace sunnier than Den Haag. Intervening now, on the basis of this intelligence, simply removes whatever is keeping Assad from gassing cities.
If Syria starts gassing cities or military units, by the way, we'll know. We won't have a measly two samples. It will be obvious. And we'll have to do something about it. We'll have to do something about it both because of the moral imperative to respond to large-scale atrocities, as well as the fact that Bashar al-Assad is probably not the last jerk who'll find himself in possession of nerve gas.
But we're not there. Yet.
SUBJECTS:
