Take the endless rumble about sequestration, for example. Supporters of the military's tuition assistance program pushed Congress to pass legislation safeguarding that program from the sequester, which in turn created precedent for a country riled by flight delays blamed on furloughed air traffic controllers. So, why wouldn't other well-endowed interests try the same?
Here's how the game of "Washington Monument" works: pick the most visible, symbolic target, make sure it is in the sights of the sequester gun, pull the trigger, and then see if the Congress draws back in horror. This is a game the military corner of the iron triangle plays very well.
Rest assured, the lesson was not lost on DOD, which, as I pointed out last week, has the greatest sequestration flexibility in the federal government.
The Washington Monument game at DOD began early, with the threat of furloughs for civil servants and the high visibility announcement that a second carrier would not be deployed to the Gulf. It continues: In a striking blow to our national security, for example, the Navy's Blue Angels and the Air Force's Thunderbirds have been grounded. Local air shows will no longer be able to attract the thousands of visitors who came to see the extraordinary flight routines these acrobatic wings produce. Grounding these elite flyboys is a national story, however; their contribution to national security is, at best, minimal.
We haven't heard as much recently from the third corner of the triangle -- the defense contractors. Well, that's not entirely true; they are out front for the M-1 tank and the Bradley, for example. And last year, the Aerospace Industries Association put high stakes on the table to exempt defense from sequestration or, failing that, eliminate the sequester altogether.
Industry has been relatively spared from cuts up to now. But it is not business as usual, not when the U.S. defense market is shrinking -- down 20 percent over the past three years, while the overall defense budget has declined only 10 percent (pre sequestration). Contractors have been responding for two years already, by consolidating businesses, hiving off unwanted capacity, and laying off workers. But the sequester rules did not take money away from existing contracts, somewhat delaying the impact.
That impact will come, however. The Pentagon, of course, is already making it clear that the business base is shrinking. As Brett Lambert, the Pentagon's industry guru says, "there's going to be a lot of bad news that's given out to companies."
And you'd better bet that the industry is already working overtime to close the loop with the other two corners of the triangle.
We are a defense drawdown. Nobody should be shocked that less cash means more political tokens on the gaming tables, amplifying the noise coming from the back room. It always has, and only some of those punters will walk away with winnings when the wheel stops spinning. Game on.
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