As Egypt's military takeover unfolded this month, comparisons to Turkey's recent history of military meddling were almost inevitable. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces' (SCAF's) 48-hour ultimatum before ousting Islamist President Mohamed Morsy, the country's first popularly elected leader, prompted easy comparisons to Turkey's 1971 "coup by memorandum." Other observers called attention to the parallels with Turkey's 1960 and 1997 coups, among others. In all three cases, the Turkish military returned power to civilian authorities after intervening, just as the SCAF did following Hosni Mubarak's ouster and as it has recently pledged to do again. Given the current tumult in Egypt, a Turkey-esque transition to civilian rule -- despite its own considerable drawbacks -- would arguably be one of the least bad outcomes resulting from the coup.
There is, however, another, far uglier precedent for Egypt's political trajectory: that of its poverty-stricken, authoritarian southern neighbor, Sudan. Egypt's recent history -- from the overthrow of Mubarak to the election of Morsy to this month's military putsch -- parallels the developments in Sudan in the mid-1980s with remarkable accuracy. Sudan's story from this period, moreover, serves as a potent reminder that coups almost always represent a detour, not a shortcut, toward stable, durable democracy.
On May 25, 1969, Gaafar Nimeiry, a young colonel inspired by the Arab nationalist ideology of Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser, seized power in Khartoum, the capital, in a military coup. For the next 16 years, he ruled Sudan in much the same way as Mubarak ruled Egypt beginning in 1981 -- heavy-handed but secular, and accommodating to his Western backers. And just as such tendencies pitted Mubarak against the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Nimeiry faced openly hostile relations with Sudan's Islamist Umma Party. (Those tensions came to a head in 1970 when Nimeiry ordered an attack -- with air support from Egyptian bombers coordinated by Mubarak, an air force officer at the time -- that killed some 12,000 Umma militants and supporters at the party's spiritual base on Aba Island.)
Political repression, however, contributed less to Nimeiry's eventual downfall than systematic mismanagement of the Sudanese economy. During his tenure, rising inflation, high unemployment, and lackluster foreign investment plunged the economy into a tailspin. By 1979, Sudan's GDP was contracting by more than 5 percent annually. As it finally started growing again a few years later, crippling inflation took hold, reaching roughly 40 percent in 1985. When in March of that year Nimeiry announced a rollback of food and oil subsidies in order to repay foreign lenders, including the IMF, protests erupted in Khartoum shortly thereafter. A broad cross-section of Sudanese society -- including doctors, university students, laborers, and union activists -- took to the streets demanding Nimeiry's ouster.
It was precisely this sort of economic malaise that drove the Egyptian protests in 2011. By the time of Mubarak's ouster, 80 percent of Egyptians rated their economic condition as "bad." Poverty was on the rise, with one in four Egyptians living under the poverty line, according to the World Bank. Inflation peaked at 18 percent in 2008 and remained in double-digits through 2010, helping to push up the price of basic goods -- particularly wheat -- despite multibillion-dollar government subsidies. The bleak economic situation hit young Egyptians the hardest. By 2011, Egyptians under age 24 comprised more than half the population, and a whopping 87 percent of the country's unemployed, making it unsurprising that this demographic dominated the ranks of the protesters who overthrew Mubarak.
During Egypt's 2011 revolution, the police mostly remained loyal to Mubarak, but the military proved less reliable -- akin to the circumstances surrounding Nimeiry's ouster in 1985. With protests roiling the Sudanese capital, Sudan's top military commander, Gen. Abdel Rahman Swar al-Dahab, seized power and formed the Transitional Military Council (TMC), which served as the country's governing authority for the next 12 months. Like the SCAF, which ran post-Mubarak Egypt, the TMC bungled basic governing tasks, but also like the SCAF, it followed through on its promise to hold elections in 1986.