Why? Putin’s brutal policies in Chechnya make him a hated man in the breakaway province and throughout much of the Muslim world.

Who? Chechens or Islamic extremists who oppose Putin’s policies.

How? A suicide bomber, perhaps while Putin is on a trip to a remote Russian province.

Then what? Token elected officials would take over and try to consolidate power, but a grim assortment of security types and major industrialists would dominate in the short term.

Worst case: The assassination becomes a pretext for an even greater suspension of democratic rights and a more brutal crackdown on Chechnya, fueling conflict for years to come.