President Hugo Chávez, (Venezuela)

Why? Chávez’s long list of enemies includes the Bush administration, many Latin American leaders, and televangelist Pat Robertson. They loathe Chávez for embracing such groups as Colombia’s FARC rebels and his gratuitous anti-Americanism.

Who? Rogue factions of the military, which Chávez purged in 2002. Or a member of the former regime (some of whom now reside in Miami). In any case, the United States would be blamed.

How? An assassin at a public rally, or a behind-closed-doors shooting by a military official.

Then what? A loyal member of the “Chavismo” movement would likely rise to claim the mantle.

Worst case: The assassination empowers the radical wing of the Chávez movement. Venezuela’s considerable oil production sputters to a halt, either from chaos or a deliberate shutdown from Chavismo members convinced the United States is behind the assassination (or who declare U.S. involvement out of political expediency.)