Why the U.S.-Afghan 'security partnership' doesn't mean much

Perhaps I'm being overly cynical, but the new "strategic partnership" agreement between the United States and Afghanistan strikes me as little more than a fig leaf designed to make a U.S. withdrawal (which I support) look like a mutually agreed-upon "victory." It is already being spun as a signal to the Taliban, Iran, and Pakistan that the United States remains committed, and the agreement will undoubtedly be used as "evidence" that the 2009 surge is a success and that's now ok for the US to bring its forces home.

I have no problem with cosmetic gestures that facilitate doing the right thing, but let's be clear about the limited significance of the agreement itself. Although the final text of the agreement has not been made public (which itself makes one wonder both what it says and what it doesn't say), the New York Times account says that there is no specific agreement on the magnitude of future U.S. aid. Indeed, it describes the agreement as "more symbolic than substantive." We're told that Washington has pledged to support Afghanistan for another ten years, but the actual aid amounts are unspecified and will have to be voted each year by Congress. Long-term U.S. support may also be conditional on reduced corruption and Afghan reforms, but given their track record to date, it is hard to believe that the Afghans will make much progress on that front.

Ten years is a pretty long time, and a lot will happen -- including three U.S. presidential elections -- between now and 2022. The Obama and Karzai governments can make whatever promises they want to each other, but those agreements will have to be carried out by their successors and both sides can always renege by claiming that "conditions have changed." I'm not saying that the agreement is worthless, but in the end the two states will abide by its terms only if it is in their respective interest to do so. Given the volatile nature of politics throughout Central Asia, it would be folly to assume that a deal hatched now will remain in force for ten years.

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Stephen M. Walt

Could TSA make flying any worse? (Yes)

I'm in California to deliver a keynote talk at the Stanford U.S-Russia Forum (or SURF). My topic will be the end of the "American Era" and its implications for U.S.-Russian relations. The Forum is a student-run event, and it will be fun to spend some time interacting with students at my alma mater. The closing dinner will be at the Faculty Club, which will be an exercise in further nostalgia, since I worked there as a waiter and bartender back in the 1970s. (And no, I am not going to divulge the drinking habits of the faculty back then).

Getting here involved flying, of course, which in turn means another enjoyable encounter with the Transportation Security Administration. The lines and pointless interference at Logan Airport were no worse than usual yesterday, but one TSA employee did manage to add a new wrinkle of misery to the experience. As we all stood in line like obedient sheep, he recited the usual litany about removing belts, shoes, liquids, emptying pockets, etc. At the same time, he also kept up a loud, non-stop monologue of unfunny, mildly sexist, and occasionally offensive jokes, to an entirely captive audience of travelers. No doubt he thought he was providing an amusing diversion, but he didn't seem to notice that no one was laughing. And given the ever-present threat of a strip-search, nobody was going to tell this loudmouth in a uniform to just zip it. So in addition to the degrading inconvenience of the security checkpoints themselves, they've now added noise pollution.

For more on the sheer pointlessness and inefficiency of the current security regime at airports, check out Bruce Schneier's rant here (h/t to Dave Clemente of Chatham House). One does wonder what it will take before the world adopts a saner approach to this problem, one which recognizes that perfect security isn't possible to achieve, and trying to get there has enormous downsides.

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