The New Salafi Politics

Few developments associated with the Arab uprisings have generated as much concern of late as the rapid emergence of Salafi movements into the public arena. The performance of al-Nour Party in Egypt's parliamentary elections stunned many observers. Waves of attacks on Sufi shrines in Tunisia and Libya, denunciations of secular citizens, and loud calls for the imposition of sharia have raised fears at home and abroad. The violent protests over the anti-Islam YouTube film, the deadly attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, and the emergence of Salafi-jihadist trends within the Syrian opposition have made these political concerns ever more urgent.

Who are these new Salafi movements? How should we interpret their rise? I am pleased to announce the publication of our new POMEPS Brief, available as a free PDF download, which collects more than a dozen recent ForeignPolicy.com essays on Salafis across the Arab world, including a detailed look at Salafi politics in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Bahrain, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. The picture that emerges is troubling -- but also unexpectedly reassuring. These well-funded and well-entrenched subcultures will likely continue to thrive in the open, contentious new Arab political realm. But how they will behave, the response they will generate from other political trends and societal sectors, and how they will approach political institutions remains very much in question.

The "troubling part" of their ascent doesn't require a great deal of elaboration. While many Salafis are simply religious individuals comfortable when surrounded by the like-minded, the more assertive of them have advanced a hard-edged, intolerant agenda that has driven a sharp polarization around religion in several Arab countries. Their attacks on movie theaters, Sufi shrines, and Western culture have frightened and angered secular trends in these countries, particularly religious minorities and women who fear for their place in the emerging societies. Attacks on U.S. embassies by Salafi-jihadist groups have frightened and angered the United States, and prompted concerns about a resurgence of al Qaeda. 

But there are also reasons for some optimism. As several of the essays in this collection point out, Salafism is not a unified trend. Its adherents belong to a wide range of movements with very different orientations toward politics, many of which push toward political quiescence and an inward-looking focus on the cohesion of their own communities. Because Salafi subcultures generally lack the kind of disciplined organization that characterizes the Muslim Brotherhood, they struggle to act in any sort of organized fashion. 

Blaming the Arab uprisings for Salafism is misguided. It is not as if these trends did not exist before their eruption into the public realm. Salafi movements were increasingly prominent in Egypt in the years prior to the revolution, with television stations and prominent public faces. Salafi subcultures across the region were fueled by funding streams from the conservative Gulf states. In some countries, such as Egypt, they were also often tacitly (or openly) supported by intelligence services keen to promote competitors to the Muslim Brotherhood and -- to the conspiracy minded -- to drum up communal tensions with attacks on churches or outrageous statements when this served the interests of the ruling regimes. The financial flows from the Gulf show few signs of abating, but it is intriguing to consider the possible impact of a decrease of this latter sort of support from the "deep state" -- or their continuation as a way to undermine and challenge the Brotherhood from within. 

It is easy to understand the alarm over high profile public arguments over outrageously reactionary comments by Salafi figures, but public clashes over issues advanced by the Salafis are also not necessarily a bad sign. It seems better to have these brought out into the public realm than hidden in shadows. It is actually reassuring to see their public advances increasingly beaten back by competing movements, an outraged and controversy-minded press, and calculating politicians. The backlash against the outrageous statements by popular Salafi television preachers reveals as much as their initial comments -- and indeed tells us far more than the bland reassurances of the designated spokesmen for the movements. These public battles reveal the limits of their influence and the real radicalism of some of their ideas relative even to their own societies. They may also sometimes reveal real pools of popular support for their ideas in conservative societies such as Egypt's, which is important to recognize rather than turn away from. 

Open politics challenges the Salafis as much as empowers them. Since its electoral coming out party, Egypt's al-Nour Party has fragmented and faced serious internal tensions. Its decision to approve of an IMF loan on grounds of extreme contingency seems sure to anger the faithful, and suggests that for better or for worse ultimately even these most ideological of Islamists will prove pragmatic in their pursuit of self-interest. They will likely face increasing challenges as their members grow disenchanted with the benefits of the democratic process and perhaps return to demands for greater doctrinal purity. In short, as much as the leaders of these movements may have enjoyed their public profile it also poses severe challenges.

Finally, the Salafi challenge has been forcing Muslim Brotherhood-style groups in countries such as Egypt and Tunisia into open confrontation. Egyptian and Tunisian Salafis have been biting at the heels of the ruling Islamists. In Egypt some Salafis are gearing up to mobilize against a constitutional draft pushed by the Muslim Brotherhood, while Tunisian Salafis are none to happy about Ennahda's decision to drop its heavily promoted "anti-blasphemy" constitutional clause. From their positions of power such Islamists no longer have the luxury of empty posturing or of ignoring real challenges to stability or national interests. While Salafis and Brothers have been tussling over supporters for many years, the stakes have never been higher nor the electoral sorting mechanism more direct. The Muslim Brotherhood can no longer take its Islamic flank for granted, forcing it to shed its carefully calculated ambiguity maintained over decades. 

A recent video of Tunisian Ennahda leader Rached Ghannouchi meeting with Salafis has been widely taken as a scandal, revealing secret collaboration between the two trends, for instance. But his comments could also be read as a warning to impatient Salafis -- to back off, avoid confrontational moves, and be more patient. It is unclear whether they have any intention of taking this advice.  With a significant proportion of Brothers harboring Salafi sympathies and Salafis moving into the political realm once identified with the Brothers, we can expect those political battles over the Islamic vote to only intensify. Islam may be ever more the coin of public rhetoric in transitional Arab societies, but there is no unified Islamist movement able to take advantage. Indeed, the fragmentation and battling of competing Islamist groups, along with the alarming rhetoric from some of those quarters, which may frighten mainstream voters, should be a blessing for liberal and secular groups, if only they can take advantage. 

The same can be said of the emergence of the Salafi-jihadist groups. While much remains unclear, there appears to be a new al Qaeda strategy focused on building ties with local jihadist movements, including the various Ansar al-Sharia factions. This is clearly a climb-down from the post-9/11 period for al Qaeda Central, and a more localized and disaggregated threat varying widely across arenas. Combined with the magnet of a radicalized Syrian insurgency (see below), it could represent the next adaptation of a resilient, if still very small, jihadist movement. That jihadist movement looks more like the localized campaigns of the 1990s than the exaggerated ambitions of a unified Islamist movement under Salafi-jihadist tutelage imagined in the years after 9/11. We should avoid the temptation to inflate the threat of these disparate movements or to conflate radically different events and trends into a single narrative of Islamist or al Qaeda resurgence.

One crucial difference in these new localized jihadist groups is that whereas before they targeted secular, pro-American leaders such as Mubarak, now their violence and extremism poses a direct threat to the political interests of Islamist leaders in Egypt and Tunisia. From a U.S. perspective, having the Muslim Brotherhood take the lead in combatting Salafi-jihadists on their own turf, for their own interests, would be a major success in the broader campaign against such groups. The Brotherhood also finds itself in the very uncomfortable position of taking a lead role in cracking down on "Islamic extremists." It has not been so long since they were the targets of such repression. This competition is one major reason why it is wrong to conflate all signs of Islamist political success into a narrative of a supposedly resurgent al Qaeda. 

And then, there is Syria. As a recent ICG report made clear, initially marginal Salafi-Jihadist groups have made significant inroads into the Syrian opposition. They appear to have benefited disproportionately from financial and arms flows from the Gulf, and to have adapted many of the military and communication innovations of al Qaeda in Iraq. For the jihadist community it does appear that Syria is the new Iraq, both operationally and as a propaganda frame for advancing a narrative, which had fallen into deep disrepute over the last few years (I'll be writing more on this soon). They will likely continue to bring sectarianism, extremist views, and Iraq-style tactics into Syria regardless of whether or how Western countries intervene, and to enjoy ready access to cash and foreign fighters regardless of whether or how Western countries attempt to control such flows.

In short, the emergence of the Salafi trend into the public life of many Arab countries is an important recent development. But it would be a mistake to exaggerate the unity of the Salafi trend or its place within these transitional societies. They are a vital part of the emerging public landscape. Their participation in electoral politics and public life should be encouraged -- even as their stances should be condemned and their opponents supported in the effort to build tolerant, inclusive Arab societies. A contentious political battle over Islamic symbols will likely continue to be a prominent feature of Arab politics in coming years. Hopefully, the essays in this POMEPS Briefing collection will be a useful guide to the current state of play.


Marc Lynch

Tunisia's political turmoil

Last month's frightening scenes of mobs attacking the American Embassy and an American school in Tunisia  should focus Washington's attention on the birthplace of the Arab uprising.  President Moncef Marzouki has made great efforts to apologize for the attacks, to emphasize his government's commitment to democracy, and to crack down on what they clearly label an extremist minority. But concerns over the emerging salafi challenge should not distract attention from the deeper issues confronting one of the most hopeful of the Arab transitions.   The protests themselves were rooted in a deeply contentious political arena facing rising polarization around the role of Islam, anxiety about the drafting of the constitution, and the failure of the transitional government to effectively respond to a deep jobs crisis.

A new public opinion survey released by the International Republican Institute shows that Tunisians  have a grim view of their future. They remain overwhelmingly focused on a disastrous economy rather than on Islamist cultural issues.  But they are also exceedingly keen to see the drafting of a new Constitution completed -- and by a spread of 52%-41%, Tunisians said they would prefer a democratic Tunisia which was unstable and insecure over a non-democratic system which was prosperous and secure. This latest snapshot of public attitudes demonstrates again both how Tunisia's revolution has stalled.. and why there is still reason for hope.

The headline of an IRI survey which found 67% of Tunisians saying that the country is going in the wrong direction -- the highest since IRI began polling in March 2011 -- might be "it's the economy, stupid."  Large majorities identify economic issues as their primary concern: 60% describe the economy as bad or very bad, while 81% mention jobs as one of their top three issues, followed by "Developing the economy" (51%) and "Living Standards" (49%).  85% say that unemployment is the top problem facing the country, followed by economic crisis (63%). A rather stunning 57% of respondents say that they are not currently employed. 

Their concerns are warranted.  The 2013 World Development Report, as Erik Churchill points out, is full of horrifying statistics about Tunisia's jobs crisis.  This ongoing economic and jobs crisis threatening Tunisia's transition only highlights the foolishness of the Congressional decision to deny funding to the State Department's new program for economic assistance to transitional Arab governments.  Meaningful economic assistance seems far more important than democracy assistance or military cooperation for supporting a democratic future for Tunisia.  It is pure folly to cut such assistance programs now.   

If the economy is the overwhelming background issue for  Tunisians, politics also seems to matter.  A massive 86% majority say that "completing the Constitution" is important or very important to them, and 73% want it put to a popular referendum rather than simply approved by the Constituent Assembly.   There is still strong support for democracy, even admidst crisis, as noted above.   But enthusiasm for popular mobilization may be fading:  a sizable minority (30%) describes "strikes and sit-ins" as one of the top problems facing the country, and another 28% complain about  violence and vandalism.

Looking ahead to the next elections, Ennahda remains by far the strongest political party in the IRI survey, with 27% saying they intend to vote for the Islamist party in the next election and no other party exceeding 6%.   But there's a lot of volatility.  41% say they don't know who they will vote for.  Only 59% now say that they voted correctly in the previous election, down from 89% at the beginning of 2012, and only 39% say they intend to vote for the same party this time. 

What about secularism?  50% now say that they would accept the Tunisian government being secular -- the highest number recorded in an IRI survey. But 64% would prefer a strongly or moderately Islamist government -- down 15 points from January, but still a strong majority.  This is useful context for the renewed attention to the salafist or jihadist challenges. Where Tunisia initially managed to avoid the worst forms of polarization around religion, over the last year Islamist conservatism and especially the role of women and attempts to criminalize blasphemy have become highly sensitive issues in constitutional debates and in public life.  The outrageous charging of a woman raped by the police with indecency has drawn appropriate international condemnation, as well as protests on her behalf which have predictably received far less Western attention than the YouTube protests did.

The escalating battles over Islam in Tunisia's public sphere have raised the temperature at a time of great uncertainty.  But despite the raw angers and fears which these issues raise, it isn't all bad. That public contention has made it ever more difficult for Ennahda to maintain its carefully cultivated ambiguity.  It forces them to confront the divergent demands of governing and popular mobilization, and to decide whether to play to the conservative street or seek the calmer middle.  In other words, the very polarization and hot contention which is raising the political temperature and causing such worry may actually be a sign that an open public sphere and the prospect of elections is working as it should.   As in Egypt, actually putting a legitimate constitution in place and resolving the deep uncertainty about basic rules and principles would go a long way towards cooling these conflicts --a point clearly recognized by the 86% of Tunisians who view completing the Constitution as a top priority. 

It's worth looking through the IRI survey for a snapshot of current Tunisian attitudes and trends since the revolution.  The mixture of anger and hope among Tunisians, and their deeply divided views on core constitutional issues, shines through the numbers. Nobody ever thought these transitions would be easy.  But the sheer fact of real politics in countries such as Tunisia, with open contention and elections whose outcome is not known in advance, remains a fundamental change which should be nurtured and supported.