What Uganda can do to end the crisis in Congo

Last week the UN finally released a controversial report that accuses Uganda and Rwanda of supporting rebels in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). When a leaked version of the report first appeared in October, Uganda's Army spokesperson, Felix Kulayigye dismissed it: "It's hogwash, it's a mere rumor that's being taken as a report," he told Radio France Internationale. "It's undermining the credibility of the mediator which is Uganda, and when you undermine the credibility of the mediator you are actually undermining the entire process."

The Wall Street Journal reported that Uganda has threatened to respond to the charges by withdrawing from its African peacekeeping missions in the DRC, Somalia, and the Central African Republic.

The paper quoted the Ugandan Foreign Ministry as follows: "Uganda's withdrawal from regional peace efforts, including Somalia... would become inevitable unless the U.N. corrects the false accusations made against Uganda." In addition, a delegation of Ugandan officials held talks with individual members of the UN Security Council in early November to protest the allegations in the UN report.

In May, Aljazeera's Nazanine Moshiri visited a base of the M23 rebel movement in eastern DRC near the Rwandan border. The rebels told her that they were fighting because the Congolese government had failed to meet its obligations outlined in the peace accords.

Later in July, the rebels vowed to take over Goma if the government failed to respond to their demands.

The final report was launched a day after the M23 rebel group captured the eastern city of Goma from government forces, making good of a threat made mid in the year. Jeffrey Gettleman of the New York Times writes of rising anti-government fury in the DRC following the rebel victory.

According to Aljazeera, the M23's full name is the March 23 Movement, which refers to the date in 2009 when a peace agreement was reached between the Democratic Republic of Congo government and the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP), a rebel militia comprised mostly of ethnic Tutsis. "Under the accords," Aljazeera says, "former CNDP fighters were supposed to have been integrated into the national army. But some of them say they were not treated fairly, and that the peace treaty was never fully put into effect -- ostensibly the reason they defected from the army and formed the M23 movement."

The Guardian's Pete Jones and David Smith, reporting from the DRC, write that, while the M23 rebels are disciplined and well-equipped, the Congolese army is losing both the image and military war. The rebels deny getting aid from Rwanda to support their cause. However, they quote residents in their article who are unhappy with the rebels.

... However, several local residents painted a less rosy picture of life under M23. A 31-year-old teacher said: "We are forced to live with them, whatever our hearts. How can you support someone when you don't know their objectives? Even a child can tell you they are supported by Rwanda. Everyone knows."

A 27-year-old farmer, with a baby tied to her back, accused M23 of forcing her to bring produce to its warehouses then failing to pay for it. "They also come during the night," she said. "They knock and if you don't open because you are afraid, they force the door or shoot with weapons.

"Then they fill their vehicles with food. When you are crying and ask for help from the police, they don't come to help. When you go the fields and soldiers come, you have to pray."

The woman added: "God will not accept M23 because we are suffering so much. If they took the whole country, nobody will be able to speak. We will live like slaves."

Since the Wednesday capture of the key town of Goma, government representatives of the DRC, Uganda, and Rwanda held a press conference in Kampala demanding the M23 rebels leave Goma immediately.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni spoke confidently of the rebels leaving the area: "No matter how far they have advanced we are going to ask them to withdraw. I can assure you they will go back."

The International Conference of the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), to which the DRC, Uganda, and Rwanda belong, held a crisis summit in Kampala over the weekend to help resolve the escalating crisis. (The photo above shows Museveni, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, and DRC President Joseph Kabila in Kampala on Nov. 21.)

The leaders gave the rebels 48 hours to withdraw from Goma and start negotiations with the government. As of today, the Daily Monitor reports that the rebels have agreed to the withdrawal, following the Monday deadline. The Ugandan paper Red Pepper reports that General Aronda Nyakairima, Uganda's Chief of Defense Forces, has been tasked with coordinating M23's withdrawal.

The U.S. ambassador to Uganda, Scott De Lisi, acknowledged Uganda's important role in maintaining peace in the region. The New Vision reports that when asked about the controversial UN report, De Lisi "maintained that it was important that Uganda be heard before a final position is reached." The paper further noted that Uganda had denounced the report as false and threatened to pull out of all regional peace initiatives.

However, Uganda's participation in the current crisis talks shows a commitment to resolve the region's problems. Yoweri Museveni, the Ugandan president, is the current chairman of the ICGLR, and ensuring a peaceful negotiation to the crisis in Congo falls under his docket.

Pulling out of the peace-keeping missions would be a detrimental move for the region as a whole. The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), which inflicted untold suffering on northern Uganda for so many years, is still prowling the forests of the Central African Republic (CAR) and Democratic Republic of Congo.

Uganda has supplied many of the troops for a joint army operation with the CAR and DRC to hunt down the LRA rebels, who have been operating in both of those countries.

Because the LRA started its campaign of terror in Uganda, it is the responsibility of the Ugandan government to continue the hunt for the LRA rebels until the conflict is over. Withdrawing troops from this hunt would make the Ugandan government complicit in the suffering of its neighbors. And that, in turn, would fuel continued turmoil in the DRC and prompt even more Congolese to flee their homes. So let's hope that the government in Kampala doesn't make good on its threat.

The Eastern DRC has been plagued by several wars, and Uganda's involvement in this country dates to the mid-1990s, when both Uganda and Rwanda propped up the late Laurent Kabila in power. The two countries have since continued to play a big role in the politics of that country.

Jackee's twitter handle is @jackeebatanda



The mysterious case of the missing president

On November 27, the president of Venezuela's National Assembly read a communiqué from President Hugo Chávez where he asked Congress for permission to travel to Cuba. In a characteristically opaque statement, the President said he needed to travel for a combination of "physiotherapy" and "hyperbaric oxygen therapy." Venezuelan bonds rallied following the news.

No one knows exactly how sick the President is, but one thing is clear: He has dramatically curtailed his public appearances. This is not normal behavior from a man who coined the term "communicational hegemony" as a top political priority.

Chávez has made a living by appearing on TV, discussing everything from his bowel movements to having intercourse with his wife. At the same time, TV -- public or private -- is the weapon of choice for his daily battles. Whether it's expropriating dozens of businesses, firing oppositionist public employees, or clumsily attempting to start a war, Chávez lives and reigns on TV like no other politician of his time. It's not by chance that when the PBS show "Frontline" decided to run an episode on his presidency, they called it The Hugo Chávez Show -- Chávez truly is the King of All Media.

But after his re-election on October 7, things changed completely.

As of the time of this writing, the President has not been seen in public since November 15, when he held a televised government meeting inside the Presidential Palace. He was previously seen on TV six days earlier, in the same setting, holding the same type of meeting.

Not surprisingly, there are people who are keeping track of this stuff. According to the Venezuelan newspaper El Universal, the President has only been on TV for 495 minutes in November, down from 3,730 minutes in August and 2,466 minutes in September.

Speculation about the future of the Bolivarian Revolution is obviously rampant. However, Venezuelans are beginning to ignore the President's health issues and instead focus on their day-to-day lives. Given the absolute lack of information, and based on previous instances where the President appeared to be on his deathbed only to miraculously recover, many Venezuelans have stopped thinking ahead.

But they must have a plan, particularly those in M.U.D., the opposition coalition. If Chávez is indeed sick enough that he is prevented from appearing in public, then the transition could be near.

In the case the President dies, the Constitution is clear: The Vice-President takes office and elections must be held within the following thirty days. In one of his first acts following the October election, Chávez named Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro as his Vice-President. Maduro, a darling of Havana's governing clique, was always seen as the most likely successor to Chávez.

If the President dies, the M.U.D. will have to coalesce around a candidate, and quickly. The obvious choice is the losing presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, who currently fighting for re-election as governor of Miranda. If he were to lose -- which seems unlikely at this point -- he would likely give up any pretense of leadership within the opposition. Other alternatives for the M.U.D. would be Caracas mayor Antonio Ledezma or Zulia Governor Pablo Pérez, who is also fighting for re-election.

At this point, however, everything is speculation, as no opposition politician dares to publicly entertain the thought of Chávez passing away. Only Capriles, buoyed in part by a comfortable margin in the polls, dared to wonder aloud about where the President was.

As this drama unfolds, the economy begins to show signs of strain. The pre-election spending binge -- which saw the budget deficit escalate to monstrous levels -- is coming back to haunt Venezuelans. The value of the dollar in the black market, for example, has soared to 3.4 times the official rate. A significant amount of debt will come due next year.

In order to steer the Venezuelan economy, tough choices need to be made. It's too bad that, from the looks of it, nobody is at the helm of the country.

Photo by JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images