5. North Korea—Not Quite Dead
“The politics are stable, the economy is developing, and the leaders
are thinking seriously about economic reform.” This was Chinese Vice
Foreign Minister Wu Dawei’s assessment of North Korea after his visit
in September. Yes, you did read that right: North Korea. The country, whose
economic collapse has been anticipated for more than a decade, embarked on
a series of economic reforms—including the introduction of privately
run farmers markets in 2002—that appear to be bearing fruit. Last year,
North Korea recorded its highest level of merchandise imports since the collapse
of the Soviet Union. And in November, the United Nations reported the country
had its best harvest in a decade. Foreign businesses such as DHL have begun
to invest in the Hermit Kingdom. There are even reports of a supermarket opening
in the near future. North Korea isn’t about to become the next Asian
Tiger, but those who are counting on an economic meltdown to avert a nuclear
standoff had better start contemplating a Plan B.
6. Pakistan’s Musharraf Stays in Uniform
Last
year,
Pakistani
President
Pervez
Musharraf
pledged
to
resign
as
army
chief
of
staff
at
the
end
of
2004
and
retain
only
his
civilian
position
of
president.
Instead,
he
chose
to
keep
both
jobs—a
decision
that
was
rubberstamped
by
Pakistan’s
Parliament
in
October.
The
issue
has
sparked
fierce
debate
in
Pakistan.
Musharraf
supporters
argue
that
the
effort
to
combat
al
Qaeda
requires
a robust
chief
executive,
while
detractors
worry
about
the
erosion
of
democracy.
Moreover,
the
move
may
signal
a break
with
the
coalition
of
Islamist
parties,
the
MMA,
with
which
he
has
allied
in
the
past.
In
2003,
the
MMA
pushed
through
a constitutional
amendment
legitimizing
Musharraf’s
rule
in
exchange
for
his
promise
to
step
down
as
Army
chief.
Now
that
he’s
reneged
on
the
deal,
the
MMA
has
vowed
to
fight
against
Musharraf’s
retention
of
both
posts.
The
military
has
long
been
Pakistan’s
strongest
institution,
and
these
developments
are
likely
to
keep
it
that
way.
But
Musharraf
is
less
popular
than
ever,
having
sparked
a strange
bedfellows
backlash
among
both
Islamists
and
democracy
advocates.
7. Busting the Bunker Busters
The Bush administration’s Nuclear Posture Review of January 2002 emphasizes
the need to develop bunker busters to enhance the ability to eliminate underground
military or nuclear facilities (such as those found in Iran and North Korea).
According to the White House, such low-yield nuclear weapons would give the
United States greater flexibility in eliminating targets without massive fallout.
Critics saw the development of this new class of nuclear warheads as an obstacle
to convincing other nations to abandon their nuclear weapons programs. Last
November, the opponents of the new nukes got their wish when the U.S. Congress
eliminated funding for research into the missile warheads. But if administration
backers are correct, the funding cut may have emboldened rogue
regimes to simply hide their weapons underground to evade U.S.
air power and deprived Washington of a crucial weapon in its arsenal against
the remaining members of the “axis of evil.”
8. Warding off the Oil Curse
Although the Boston Red Sox undid their curse in dramatic fashion, the West
African country of Chad is quietly trying to undo the “oil curse” that
plagues many developing countries. Chad became an oil exporter and in July
received its first $38 million in oil revenues. Oil resources routinely fuel
government corruption and civil conflict and undermine economic development.
But, as part of a deal with the World Bank, which helped fund the pipeline
that transfers the Chadian oil to market, 80 percent of the oil revenue will
be spent on health, education, and infrastructure for its mostly poor population,
and 10 percent will be invested for future generations. The government’s
expenditures will face the scrutiny of a watchdog committee that includes individuals
from civil society and government, and most of the money will be held by the
World Bank in a London account to preempt graft. The arrangement may not work
out—one nongovernmental organization already complained that the oversight
board receives inadequate resources. But if it does, it could be a powerful
model for other countries who are rich in resources and poor in everything
else.
