While the world’s attention was riveted on the U.S. presidential election
and the ongoing conflict in Iraq, several other less-noticed events occurred
in 2004 that will have a lasting impact in the years ahead. Find out what you
missed in this exclusive overview by the FP editors.
1. Nous Sommes Tous Chinois
Whenever Taiwan holds an election, Beijing puts on a show of military might
to demonstrate that, one way or another, Taiwan will remain part of China. Prior
to Taiwan’s first direct presidential election in 1996, China lobbed missiles
that landed within 50 miles of Taiwan’s coast. Last March, four days before
the Taiwanese elections, China carried out a naval exercise off the coast of
Taiwan—its largest-ever joint military exercise with a foreign power.
Who was China’s partner in intimidation? France. Also in 2004, the French
government began lobbying the European Union (EU) to lift the arms embargo placed
on China after the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. So, what explains France’s
newfound fraternité with China? France clearly sees China as
a counterbalance to the U.S. “hyperpower”; French President Jacques
Chirac says that France and China’s “global partnership” is
“founded first of all on a common vision of the world—a multipolar
world.” France is also keen to gain from the economic action in China
and believes that lifting the arms embargo would allow its defense contractors
to win lucrative contracts from the Chinese military. Small surprise that in
2004 the French celebrated “The Year of China in France.”
2. The Eurotaxman Cometh
The
European
Parliament
made
headlines
when
it
rejected
Italian
politician
Rocco
Buttiglione
for
the
post
of
EU
justice
commissioner
due
to
his
strict
Catholic
views
on
social
issues
such
as
abortion.
But
amid
this
culture
war,
a
far
more
important
development
received
scant
attention:
The
replacement
of
Latvian
Ingrida
Udre
as
taxation
commissioner.
The
parliament
took
exception
to
her
belief
in
the
benefits
of
low
taxation
and
tax
competition
between
member
states
and
raised
concerns
over
alleged
financial
irregularities
in
her
past.
Her
replacement?
Hungarian
socialist—and
former
Communist—Laszlo
Kovacs,
who
favors
the
“creation
of
a
common
consolidated
corporate
taxation
base.”
His
appointment
is
sure
to
spark
tensions
between
Brussels
and
Europe’s
low-tax
economies,
such
as
Britain
and
Ireland,
and
strengthen
the
hand
of
countries
that
want
to
raise
corporate
taxes
throughout
the
EU.
3. Not Iraqification, but Kurdification
When trouble flared in the Iraqi town of Mosul in late November, the only Iraqi
troops that U.S. forces trusted to help restore order were Kurdish, according
to reports in the BBC and the New York Times. With strong memories
of their suffering under Saddam Hussein, the Kurds feel far less conflicted
than Iraq’s Arabs about joining the United States to fight remnants of
the Baathist regime. Yet, U.S. reliance on the Kurds to police ethnically mixed
towns such as Mosul could exacerbate tensions in Iraq. Juan Cole, a Middle East
expert at the University of Michigan, fears a “backlash against the Kurds”
among Shiite and Sunni Iraqis in the near future.
4. Putin to Kvashnin: “You’re Fired!”
On July 19, 2004, Russian President Vladimir Putin fired the army’s chief
of staff, Gen. Anatoly Kvashnin, and replaced him with Yuri Baluyevsky, a general
who is more supportive of Putin’s long-running—and so far unsuccessful—struggle
to reform the military. Since becoming president, Putin has sought to purge
the Russian military of its Cold War mindset and retool it for counterinsurgency
operations. The military establishment, however, has resisted change, and it
still maintains a war-fighting capability oriented toward fighting NATO, as
opposed to militants within Russia’s own borders. And, despite Putin’s
call for an end to the draft in 2001, it still exists, and conscripts will continue
serving in Chechnya until 2006. Until Putin can push his reforms through, Russia
will likely have little success in defeating insurgencies in secessionist regions
such as Chechnya. The ineptitude of elite military units during the Beslan hostage
crisis in September 2004—when 80 percent of the hostages were killed or
wounded during the storming of a school held by Chechen militants—reveals
just how much work still needs to be done.
