President Pervez Musharraf (Pakistan)

Why? Musharraf’s crackdown on al Qaeda in Pakistan, though half-hearted at times, enrages jihadists. They have tried to kill Musharraf several times, with at least one attempt coming close to success.

Who? Jihadist radicals sympathetic to al Qaeda and angered by Musharraf’s crackdown have him at the top of their hit list. Low-ranking military officials, many of whom don’t support Musharraf, may cooperate or act on their own. Al Qaeda has long tried to infiltrate Pakistan’s armed forces and police.

How? Car bomb or a suicide bomber. A surprise assassination carried out by a member of the either the military or Musharraf’s security entourage.

Then what? Another general of the Musharraf mold takes over, possibly working with sympathetic civilians who now hold token positions of power.

Worst case: A power struggle develops within the army, and a nuclear-armed Pakistan collapses into sectarian and ethnic strife while the large jihadist contingent operates unfettered. The instability leads to another India-Pakistan war.