Why he’ll get the prize: The committee could choose to award both Ahtisaari and Yudhoyono, the first directly elected president of Indonesia, for their work on Aceh. It’s also possible that the committee will pick only Yudhoyono, because the 57-year-old Indonesian doesn’t carry baggage from the Balkans. Another advantage? Yudhoyono is a moderate Muslim from the most populous Muslim country in the world, something the committee might want to highlight this year, given the recent tensions between Islam and the West.

Why he won’t: Yudhoyono’s background as a general in Indonesia’s once all-powerful military may hurt his chances. Additionally, Indonesia recently executed three Catholics who were convicted of leading a militia that killed Muslims during clashes between the two religions a few years ago.

Odds: 4 to 1

Why she’ll get the prize: Kadeer was arrested and imprisoned in 1999 for her human rights campaign on behalf of the Uighur ethnic minority in China’s Xinjiang province. Although the 59-year-old was released last year and currently lives in exile in the United States, more than 100,000 of China’s 8 million Uighurs still languish in jail. Kadeer is not just a human rights activist; she’s also a symbol. She’s female, Chinese, Muslim, and a leader of an ethnic minority—a combination that the Nobel Committee could find very appealing.

Why she won’t: China has accused Kadeer of associating with terrorist organizations that advocate independence for the Uighurs of northern Xinjiang. Beijing has warned Oslo that China’s relations with the European Union will suffer if Kadeer wins. And even though only 12 out of 113 Nobel Peace Prizes have gone to women, two of them have been in the past three years: Iranian human rights activist Shirin Ebadi in 2003 and Kenyan environmentalist Wangari Maathai in 2004.

Odds: 13 to 1

Why he’ll get the prize: The Nobel Committee has smiled before on those who fight for religious freedom—witness the Dalai Lama in 1989 and Elie Wiesel in 1986. The 77-year-old Buddhist monk, who spent 25 years in prison and remains under house arrest, is the secretary general of the Unified Buddhist Church of Vietnam, an organization that rejects the state supervision of religion. Do just received the annual prize from the Norwegian Thorolf Rafto Foundation for Human Rights, which has a good track record of prediction. Four previous Rafto laureates went on to later win the Nobel.

Why he won’t: Along with Kadeer, Do is not as prominent internationally as some of the others on the list. And in a year with so many high-profile conflicts around the world, the prize may not go to someone in an area of the world that’s not in headlines every day. Moreover, Vietnam has largely improved religious rights in the past two years in anticipation of its joining the World Trade Organization.

Odds: 15 to 1

Why he’ll get the prize: The frontman for the Irish rock group U2 has long used his celebrity to bring attention to the plight of the poor, by participating in fundraising events such as Band Aid and Live Aid. But in recent years, Bono has really stepped up his work for the developing world. He’s been a vocal proponent of debt relief. He established the policy organization DATA (Debt, AIDS, Trade, Africa) to eradicate poverty and HIV/AIDS. He attends summits of global leaders, including the G-8 and World Economic Forum, hobnobs with heads of state, and unlike many other celebrities, puts his money where his mouth is.

Why he won’t: He’s a rock star. Committee members might find it too frivolous to give the award to a professional entertainer. Besides, at only 46 years old, there’s plenty of time to award him in the future.

Odds: 34 to 1

*Odds were cribbed from Australian betting Web site www.centrebet.com on Oct. 9, 2006.