2006 was a turbulent year in world politics, with military coups in Thailand and Fiji, an entrenched insurgency in Afghanistan, and worsening sectarian violence in Iraq. And more governments are tottering. In this week’s List, FP takes a look at the regimes that may collapse next.
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Chad
The regime: President Idriss Déby has ruled Chad since seizing power in a 1990 coup.
The contenders: Déby is opposed by the United Front for Change (UFC), a fractious coalition of eight rebel groups, some of whom are allegedly supported by Sudan.
How it could happen: The crisis in the Darfur region of Sudan has brought hundreds of thousands of destitute refugees to eastern Chad, while spawning a quiet proxy war between by the two neighboring countries. Rebels based in Sudan even threatened briefly to take the capital of N’Djamena last spring. President Déby easily survived the attack as well as an attempted coup in March, and he was comfortably re-elected for a third term in May. Déby went on to sign a peace agreement in December with some members of the UFC. But the remaining rebels haven’t been vanquished; they’ve merely regrouped to fight another day. With the international community paralyzed and the White House preoccupied with Iraq, the situation in Darfur threatens to rear its ugly head and claim another victim: Déby himself.
Chances of regime change: Medium
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Iran
The regime: Iran’s public face is the Holocaust-denying President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but a complicated hierarchy led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds most of the actual power in the country.
The contenders: Ali Hashemi Rafsanjani, former president and current chairman of the Expediency Council, already wields considerable influence.
How it could happen: It won’t be American tanks that lead the charge. President Ahmadinejad’s unsubtle approach to public diplomacy, and the U.N. Security Council opprobrium that has resulted, has finally become too much for the supreme leader and for a growing number of Iranians both inside government and out. Ahmadinejad’s supporters were trounced in the recent local elections by Rafsanjani’s pragmatic conservative faction, and his many political enemies are now circling like buzzards. The final coup de grâce could take the form of a parliamentary vote of no confidence, or simply a steady whittling down of the presidency’s already slim powers to the point where Ahmadinejad becomes a mere nuisance. The one thing that could save the sinking Iranian president? U.S. air strikes.
Chances of regime change: High
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Sri Lanka
The regime: Hardline President Mahinda Rajapakse of the leftist Sri Lankan Freedom Party heads the government and wields wide-ranging powers.
The contenders: The Tamil Tigers, formally known as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), want to carve out their own ethnic state in the north and east of the island country.
How it could happen: Ethnic civil war is afoot again in Sri Lanka, as a 2002 cease fire between the mostly Catholic and Hindu Tamil Tigers and the mostly Buddhist government has effectively collapsed. Sri Lanka has been at war for much of the past 20 years, but the past four had been relatively calm until explosions and riots rocked the northeast town of Trincomalee in April of 2006. Since then, fighting has accelerated, with no sign of a clear victory on either side. President Rajapakse’s job is safe for now, but the prospects for his country look grim.
Chances of regime change: Low
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Hungary
The regime: Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány heads the Socialist party, which rules via a coalition with the Free Democrats.
The contenders: László Solyom, Hungary’s president, has called on Parliament to oust Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, but Viktor Orbán’s conservative Fidesz party doesn’t have the votes. Instead, Fidesz members petulantly walk out of Parliament whenever Gyurcsány speaks and refuse to meet with him.
How it could happen: Although Hungary was officially admitted to the EU in 2004, this past year witnessed troubling destabilization amid an economic downturn in the former Eastern Bloc country. Riots, the worst since the Soviet Union rolled its tanks into downtown Budapest in 1956, broke out when Prime Minister Gyurcsány was taped admitting that top officials had "lied in the morning and lied in the evening" about the country’s economic performance in order to win re-election. Angry protests demanding Gyurcsány’s removal have continued since the tape first leaked in September. Regime change in Hungary, if it happens, is likely to be the peaceful result of a no-confidence motion in Parliament; for all of their shortcomings, Hungary’s young democratic institutions are sturdy enough to withstand a little unrest.
Chances of regime change: Medium
Iraq
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The regime: Iraq is ostensibly governed by a triumvirate led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki of the Shiite Dawa Party.
The contenders: Moqtada al-Sadr, Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, the Sunni insurgency
How it could happen: 2006 was the year that Iraq nearly spiraled out of control. After a bomb destroyed an important Shiite shrine in February, sectarian militias ramped up their ethnic cleansing campaigns, with Sunnis in Baghdad bearing the brunt. A total of more than 34,000 Iraqis were killed during 2006, and 471,000 Iraqis have fled their homes since the bombing of the shrine. The Iraqi government has proven incapable of providing basic security for the population or rooting out grotesque levels of corruption. Radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has threatened repeatedly to withdraw from the ruling Shiite coalition, while the United States has expressed mounting frustration with Prime Minister Maliki's inability to crack down on Sadr’s anti-Sunni militia, the Mahdi Army. The real question for 2007 may be not if the Maliki government will fall, but just how many governments that follow it will do the same.
Chances of regime change: High
