Ehud Olmert, Israel’s prime minister, is hanging on for his political life in the wake of a scathing report on his handling of the Israel-Hezbollah clash. He’s rejected calls to step down, but those maneuvering to replace him may not need to wait until the scheduled 2010 elections in order to force him out. For this List, FP asked top Middle East experts to rate the chances of the politicians gunning for Olmert’s job.
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Ami Ayalon
Who is he? Elected to the Labor Party’s Knesset bloc in 2006, the former head of the Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service, is his party’s leading candidate for prime minister.
Why he’ll get the job: Ayalon has promised to pull his party out of its ruling coalition with the Kadima party if he wins Labor’s chair elections at the end of May. That could force Kadima to put a Labor candidate into the prime ministry to forestall a coalition collapse, says Tamara Cofman Wittes, a Brookings Institution research fellow. Ayalon currently leads public opinion polls for the party’s leadership. “He has an unquestioned security and intelligence background, and at the same time he’s a dove,” says Paul Scham, an adjunct scholar with the Middle East Institute.
Why he won’t: He was elected to the Knesset only last year, so he may be too green for the position. “He is untested, unknown, and shows a lack of political smoothness, which, if pushed too far, translates to a slipperiness,” says Aaron David Miller, a scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Ayalon may also be too dovish. “He would be most acceptable to the liberal part of the Labor Party,” says Scham.
The odds: Moderate. Assuming he wins Labor’s internal elections later this month, Kadima may well be forced to make Ayalon the next PM.
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Ehud Barak
Who is he? A veteran Labor Party politician, prime minister from 1999 to 2001, and the most decorated soldier in Israel.
Why he’ll get the job: Second time’s the charm. After losing to Ariel Sharon in a humiliating landslide in 2001, Barak abandoned politics, only to reemerge as a major Labor Party figure in 2005. “He’s risen from the political graveyard, has very strong national security credentials, and is very well known,” says Wittes. His political experience may give him an advantage over Ayalon, and he’s acknowledged any first-term missteps. “He’s less arrogant than the first time around, and his hard-nosed, slightly liberal attitude may fit the country more than it had previously,” says Scham.
Why he won’t: A lousy record. Barak oversaw Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, which some cite as precipitating last summer’s war, and it was on his watch that the peace process finally fell apart. But the disastrous Camp David summit in 2000 wasn’t his only failure. “As prime minister he demonstrated a consistent inability to get things done in a way that would position Israel well for the future,” says Miller.
The odds: Low. Ayalon is the man to beat in Labor. And even if Barak is able to capture the party’s chairmanship this month, he’ll have to threaten to undo the Kadima-led coalition if he wants a PM appointment. Otherwise, he’ll have to wait until the 2010 elections, in which the “dysfunctional” Labor Party will probably perform badly, says Miller.
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Tzipi Livni
Who is she? Israel’s foreign minister and Olmert’s second in command. Elected to the Knesset as a Likud party member in 1999, Livni served as a cabinet minister under Ariel Sharon. In 2005, she left Likud to join Sharon’s newly formed Kadima party.
Why she’ll get the job: She’s the people’s choice. Her enormous popularity with the Israeli public may be her greatest asset at a time when two thirds of the country wants Olmert to resign. If the party can force him out, Olmert’s successor will almost certainly be chosen by Kadima, and Livni is likely to get the party’s nod. As the foreign minister during last July’s war with Hezbollah, she’s been portrayed as the cool, diplomatic antidote to the rash Olmert. “Livni’s the one senior figure who came out of the war last year actually looking good,” notes Wittes.
Why she won’t: She’s inexperienced. “In the end, she’s untested,” says Miller. “I don’t think the Israeli public is ready for another test run.” In particular, she lacks the security credibility of her opponents, observes Wittes. And finally, she’s a woman, which guarantees opposition from religious conservatives and runs counter to the country’s recent political history. Israel’s first and only female prime minister was Golda Meir, who resigned in 1974 over her conduct of the Yom Kippur War.
The odds: High. Security questions likely won’t derail Livni, the best-positioned, most popular politician in the country, from becoming Israel’s next prime minister.
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