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Foreign Policy: Is John McCain on the path to win the Republican nomination?
Andrew Kohut: He’s the front runner. It’s not written that he’s going to win, but he’s certainly coming out of Feb. 5 in better shape than the other two. Much better shape.
FP: Everyone’s saying that the Democratic race is going to be a slug-out that won’t be over until spring. Who do you think benefits from a drawn-out race, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton? And does it hurt Democrats if race continues through April?
AK: I don’t think that either candidate particularly benefits from a long, drawn-out race. It’s just a matter of the way it goes. It could be that Hillary benefits a little bit more now if this were not proportional voting—if it was winner take all—because she won such a large share of the big states yesterday. But as we go forward, I don’t think it makes a particular difference for either of the candidates.
We don’t see any signs that Democrats are getting disillusioned. As a matter of fact, it may keep them on the front page longer, and in the public’s consciousness—as long as it doesn’t get acrimonious.
FP: Why do you think Hillary did so much better in the big states than she did elsewhere?
AK: Because she had big leads in these states, which have been traditionally Democratic, and many core Democrats in these places like the Clintons. But Obama whittled them down to a considerable degree and he did quite well in terms of momentum. Momentum was with him and he was able to reduce the margins in many of these states.
FP: You do a lot of polling and analysis of voters’ views on the issues. Isn’t it obvious that the election is going to be about the economy?
AK: Even though the issues are motivating participation, and we certainly have the Democrats engaged, there’s not a lot of correlation between what issues the Democrats say are important to them and who they’re voting for. You see people in the exit polls saying that they’re for immediate withdrawal [in Iraq] rather than a timetable for withdrawal and they are just as likely to be Clinton supporters as they are Obama supporters. The debate about who did what and said what in particular hasn’t had much of an impact, and it’s not likely that the economy will become a decisive factor within the nominating races. The general election could be entirely different.
FP: You’ve mentioned before that the polls are very unstable this year on the Democratic side. Do you think voters are just confused?
AK: I think voters are conflicted. I don’t think they’re confused. Obviously they know who these candidates are. They’re paying a lot of attention, more attention than usual. But there are so many cross-pressures, reasons to like both Obama and Clinton. Different groups, in particular white males, have had a problem with Hillary. On the other hand, whites have not voted for Obama at very high rates. So there’s a lot of cross-pressuring going on.
FP: If we go to the general election and it becomes McCain-Obama or McCain-Clinton, does the role of race or gender increase?
AK: It’s conceivable that gender and race may become an even bigger issue in the general election. But then we could also have the issue of age. If McCain is the candidate, we know people have concerns about voting for a candidate in his 70s. We have so many unprecedented situations with regard to candidate qualities in this [election] that it’s hard to say whether one will trump another.
FP: Your organization has reported that public interest in news about Iraq and terrorism is declining. When Rudy Giuliani flamed out in the Republican primary, a lot of people said it meant that 9/11 has really lost its punch as a political issue. Do you think that that’s true? And do you think that for McCain—who says the election is going to be about defeating Islamic extremism--do you think Iraq and terrorism are going to work in his favor in the general campaign?
AK: I think the fact that there is rising concern about the economy and a recession doesn’t preclude one of the candidates from making a case on one of the issues that is also important to the voters, but doesn’t have as much concern. If you ask people to rate the issues, terrorism is still up there. If you ask people what they’re thinking about, the economy is way up there. As for Iraq, it’s an issue that’s going to help the Democrats. How much it helps the Democrats is going to depend on how things are going. If it gets back at the top of the newscast, it will certainly become a tougher issue for the Republicans.
Andrew Kohut is president of the Pew Research Center in Washington, D.C.
