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Tipping point: Paul Wolfowitz argues that the world must show Zimbabweans a brighter future.

Foreign Policy: You propose in the Wall Street Journal that some country should offer Robert Mugabe a “safe and comfortable retirement if he leaves without further violence.” Do you think that today’s more frequent international human rights prosecutions are making it harder to negotiate with a guy like Mugabe because he might fear the consequences of stepping down?

Paul Wolfowitz: I haven’t seen any evidence of that. You could argue equally that it might encourage them to make a deal when they think they can get a deal. There’s no single answer in these situations, but it’s not a bad thing that these characters can end up facing justice.

One of the more complicated cases is that of Charles Taylor in Liberia, because he was offered exactly such a deal to leave Liberia and go to Nigeria. And I think that was a good thing. But what he did once he got to Nigeria was terrible, because he kept using communications and probably money to keep stirring up trouble in Liberia, and so eventually the Nigerians handed him over to the court. If I were going to get very explicit, I would say any deal with Mugabe has to make sure that he is no longer interfering in the affairs of Zimbabwe. It really has to be the end.

FP: In your view, how personalized is Zimbabwe’s regime at this point? If Mugabe goes, isn’t there still an entire military infrastructure backing him?

PW: I think the truthful answer is, nobody really knows. It’s obviously not just one man doing this sort of thing. The important point is that one way to move forward is to start getting concrete now about the problems of the future instead of passing fairly ineffective resolutions, or sanctions, which aren’t much more effective, or talking about peacekeeping forces, which probably aren’t going to happen. I’m not against any of those, and if I implied I’m against them, I’m not. These things could be complementary. But it would help a lot if people were talking about where the country could go in the future and what the international community is prepared to do to help.

FP: Say your strategy works, and he takes the retirement bait. What replaces him? How do you get from Mugabe to a just, functioning government?

PW: First of all, I wouldn’t call it bait. Let’s call it “the deal.” It’s not meant to be a trap; it’s meant to be what it is. The idea behind this is to recognize that the key decisions are not going to be made by outsiders and certainly not by Westerners (although I’m not sure the Africans have done a whole lot better). They’re going to be made by the people of the country themselves. So, if you want to answer the question you just asked about what it will be like afterwards, the first person to ask that question is the guy who obviously would have been elected president if there hadn’t been fraud, and that’s [opposition leader Morgan] Tsvangirai.

FP: As you’ve noted, African leaders have begun to speak out against Mugabe, but the obvious exception is South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki. What do you think is holding Mbeki back?

PW: Let me say something in introduction first. Africans in general, including the neighboring countries, have underestimated their own stake here in several ways, but most importantly the invisible effect that this has on Africa’s reputation as a whole.

I have become extremely interested and cautiously excited about the fact that there are more than a dozen African countries, with about a third of the population of sub-Saharan Africa, that have been growing fairly respectably—four percent or better for the last 10 years, and a couple of them up at the 7 or 8 percent level. (And without oil. I’m not counting the countries that are doing it with oil and mineral resources, which is another chunk.)

But when I talk to Western investors about the opportunities in Africa, one of the first things they ask is about Zimbabwe. And the next thing they ask is why South Africa, which is supposed to be one of the brighter lights of Africa, is so condoning of Mugabe’s misbehavior. And I don’t have a very good answer. Part of the answer is that the history of the fight against apartheid and white supremacy in Rhodesia made these people real comrades in arms for many years, and those relationships are hard to put behind you. I’m pleased to see that increasingly, you’re seeing South Africans themselves [come forward], including ones that are very much associated with the struggle against white supremacy—men like Jacob Zuma or unions like the longshoremens’ union that refused to unload that Chinese ship. And I hope the signs of change that we’re seeing are going to include President Mbeki.